Player Analysis: IEFSA Auction Draft Review

A number of us from the Rotoworld Premier League team participated in our annual IEFSA Auction Draft yesterday morning. The IEFSA league is the International Expert Fantasy Soccer Association, which is a professional fantasy soccer league. A number of experts compete for charity and it’s one of the coolest fantasy leagues we’ve participated in. Please check it out at http://www.theiefsa.com/ and feel free to join the qualifier league! Enough about the league, let’s look at the draft and see what we can learn from it. I’ll start off with the ten most expensive picks.

The Top Ten

Player	Team	Price
Agüero, Sergio – MCI	@DFS_hambazaza	76
Hazard, Eden – CHE	@DanRiccio590	72
Rooney, Wayne – MUN	@nikarg	71
DiegoCosta – CHE	@BenDinnery	65
Sánchez, Alexis – ARS	@GalinDragiev	60
Benteke, Christian – LIV	@RotoWireAndrew	59
Silva, David – MCI	@FuzzyWarbles	57
Kane, Harry – TOT	@wrigavin	49
Depay, Memphis – MUN	@GarryIrwin	49
Eriksen, Christian – TOT	@nikarg	49
Fàbregas, Cesc – CHE	@nealjthurman	49

*The budget for each team was $200.

That’s actually eleven, but we had a four-way tie for eighth place. A lot of interesting things happened early. The first player nominated was Alexis Sanchez and everyone was surprised when I spent $60 on him. I was confident in spending 30% of the cap on the fourth best player in the draft and it turned out to be a steal when three other players cracked the $70 mark.

Eden Hazard was completely worth it, especially considering this a keeper league and Dan Riccio can keep him for up to four years. Sergio Aguero is by far the best fantasy player in the Premier League, and is worth it if healthy, but carries a bit of risk with his ongoing muscle problems.

I liked almost everyone else in the top 10 at their respective price outside of Christian Benteke. Benteke is great but it’s very hard to predict how he’ll fit in at Liverpool and just a dollar under Alexis Sanchez is very, very risky. I don’t see a scenario where Benteke scores more fantasy points than Sanchez and it’s hard to justify that price. Memphis Depay also carries a bit of risk with this being his first season in the Premier League, but he absolutely destroyed the Eredivisie with 22 goals and 5 assists in 30 matches last season and if he replicates that, he could be a huge bargain for the next four years.

You can find the rest of the picks HERE, sorted by price. Next up, I’ll discuss the most overvalued and undervalued players in the draft.

Overvalued

Christian Benteke – discussed above.

Branislav Ivanovic (and all defenders, really) – Ben Dinnery spent $45 on Ivanovic, who finished last season as the 51^st player in fantasy points per game (FP/G). With a scoring change that decreases defender value even further this season (goals conceded will count for -0.5 points), Ivanovic and all defenders are even worse bets for value. Players around his mark for FP/G in this draft went for considerably cheaper, such as John Terry ($14), Bafetimbi Gomis ($22), and Riyah Mahrez ($13). There is an upside in Ivanovic because he brings in points from an otherwise poor position, but defenders who brought in about 80 to 90 percent of his productions went in the $20 price range, and I don’t think that extra little bit was worth another $20.

Goalkeepers

The top five most expensive goalkeepers (you get goalkeepers by team) were:

Chelsea ($31)
Arsenal ($30)
Stoke City ($21)
Southampton ($21)
Manchester City (21)

That’s a ton of money for an incredibly overpriced position in our scoring format. In our league, the highest scoring goalkeeper with at least 20 matches last season was Costel Pantilimon, at 3.2 FP/G. That’s worse than most defenders and less than half of any competent midfielder/striker. Goalkeepers on good teams scored even worse, with Thibaut Courtois finishing at 2.8 FP/G and Joe Hart earning a low 3.08 FP/G. They’re just not worth the money, especially when one could get someone like Lukasz Fabianski (2.96 FP/G) or Simon Mignolet (3.16 FP/G) for $9. I spent $15 on Costel Pantilimon due to him being the highest scoring goalkeeper from last season, but I still feel like I overpaid when I saw how cheaply guys like Fabianski and Mignolet went for.

Patrick Bamford – No one saw this coming but Patrick Bamford somehow went for $25. The striker isn’t even guaranteed a starting role yet, and even if he gets it as expected, he’s very far from being a proven talent. Strikers like Grazianno Pelle and Bafetimbi Gomis went for less.

Undervalued

Diafra Sakho – Sakho was quite impressive last season, coming in eighth in fantasy points per game. He comes into this season with high expectations and will be leading the line for West Ham. He is a steal at $19 and could prove to be much more valuable.

Victor Moses – Moses has a real chance to be a starter at Chelsea and @nikarg paid a single dollar for him as the last pick in the draft. I wanted Moses badly, but I ended up without a roster spot by that point in time when I tried driving the price up on Gabriel Paulista and got stuck with him. Poor choice by me.

Jordon Ibe – Ibe slipped through the cracks for $1. If he can earn a starting job, he can be a mid-level fantasy producer. A huge steal from @RotoWireAndrew. Speaking of @RotoWireAndrew, he also got Christian Atsu for $1. Again, I was out of roster spots by that time, or I would have made a run for Atsu, who might end up being the steal of the draft.

Daniel Sturridge – This one is a bit tough because of the injury risk, but if Sturridge can stay on the pitch, he is a great deal for $21. It was just two years ago that he finished with 21 goals and 7 assists.

Team by Team Grades

@nealjthurman and @DFS_hambazaza

Grades

@nealjthurman – B+

Neal started off very well by paying up for Olivier Giroud, who had a good year last season being fed by arguably the best midfield in the league. $41 was a fair price to pay and sets up his team for success. Cesc Fabregas was another good buy and Neil was then able to grab a few cheap guys who give him options all over the squad. He has a solid chance to repeat as champion.

@DFS_Hambazaza – B

$76 is a lot but if Sergio Aguero is healthy all season, @DFS_Hambazaza will likely be in the top five at the end of the year. He overpaid a bit for the Southampton goalkeeper position, which could regress after losing Nathaniel Clyne and Toby Alderweireld in defense, but he made a solid buy in Ryan Bertrand (gets a lot of his points in attack) and has a nice option of forwards to use in the flex spot.

@RotoZdroik and @GarryIrwin

Grades

@RotoZdroik – A-

A solid team for Adam who has a very strong midfield in Aaron Ramsey, Santi Cazorla, and Gylfi Sigurdsson. He has Romelu Lukaku up front at a fair price and enough cheap defenders to make ends meet. I really like his team’s balance.

@GarryIrwin – C+

Garry overpaid for Thibaut Courtois by a huge margin and I don’t like the price on Bastian Schweinsteiger either. He has a few good values later in Andre Ayew and Carl Jenkinson, but the Courtois/Schweinsteiger/Memphis Depay purchases really limited him later on. He will need Depay to be a complete stud to have a chance at a winning record.

@RotoWireAndrew and @TomSunderland_

Grades

@RotoWireAndrew – A-

This was a tough team for me to grade. I hated the Christian Benteke overpay, but Theo Walcott can be a huge asset if he starts and Andrew got some amazing value late in Jordon Ibe and Christian Atsu. Dann Scott was more than solid, Antonio Valencia might actually start again, and Eliaquim Mangala for $2 is a steal. Outside of Benteke, great business by Andrew.

@TomSunderland_ – C-

I’m sorry Tom. I really don’t love the team. Danny Ings and Falcao are both headed for bench roles and the overpay for the Arsenal goalkeeper was not a good move. On top of that, Tom’s best players are all defenders, who are very, very low scorers in this format, especially with the new rule that gives defenders -0.5 FP for goals conceded. At least the excess of defenders gives Tom a chance to be active in the trade market.

@Smokey_Loogy and @BenDinnery

Grades

@Smokey_Loogy – B

Smokey had a solid draft that saw him land a number of steals. Wes Morgan was great down the stretch last season and is surely worth $7 while Simon Mignolet at $9 was great goalkeeper business. I like the Philippe Coutinho pick, who seems like a lock to lead Liverpool this season. Yannick Bolasie is solid and Maya Yoshida could be a starter on a good defense for just $4. Ayoze Perez could slot in the flex position at just $1. There are no stars on this team, but the balance is solid and Smokey has some money left to pursue free agents.

@BenDinnery – B

That’s two B’s in a row but I neither love nor hate Ben’s team. He overpaid for Ivanovic as I discussed earlier, but Diego Costa is a good value at $65 and there are some good supporting players on his squad as well. I particularly like the Joel Ward and Saido Berahino picks. Two quality strikers are essential to success this season with the addition of the flex spot.

@DanRiccio590 and @FantasyYIRMA

Grades

@DanRiccio590 – A

Dan did a fantastic job in this draft. Eden Hazard was expensive but worth every penny and he has three excellent forwards to rotate between the flex and forwards positions in Dimitri Payet, Grazianno Pelle, and Jay Rodrigueze. Wilfried Bony becomes a must start if Aguero is out for a prolonged time. He filled out the rest of his squad with cheap defenders and has a solid goalkeeper in David de Gea. There are no weaknesses here and I expect Dan to have a top team by the end of the season.

@FantasyYIRMA – B-

Decent showing from FantasyYirma, who paid up for Mesut Ozil and Yaya Toure. I don’t particularly love Toure, but he won’t be a total bust. James Milner is an interesting choice that we’ll have to wait and see on, but there is some balance in the squad here. Where FantasyYIRMA went wrong was to spend too much on defense and end up without any top class strikers, which will inevitably hurt him in the long-run.

@wrigavin and @nikarg

Grades

@wrigavin – B+

Gavin got a good bargain on Harry Kane and has some great midfielder options in Yohan Cabaye and Dusan Tadic (who I think will regain a starting spot this season). Roberton Firmino was very expensive for what he brings and that was the biggest knock on Gavin’s draft. Julian Speroni at $1 was a great choice for the game’s least important position.

@nikarg – A-

Nik spent freely on Wayne Rooney but the striker has the potential to be the top fantasy scorer if he starts at his preferred forward position. He is on penalty duty as well, which helps. Christian Eriksen was also expensive but is shaping up to be Tottenham’s leader and is also on free-kick duty. I really liked some of Nik’s late purchases, especially Victor Moses and Loic Remy, who could both end up as starters on another Premier League team before the season’s start. Mile Jedinak was also a great addition.

@GalinDragiev and @SportsByGotti

Grades

@GalinDragiev – A-

What can I say, I really like my squad, probably because I drafted it. I got the steal of the draft in Alexis Sanchez at $60 and I really like the price I paid for Sterling. I paid more than I wanted to for a goalkeeper but it wasn’t the worst deal in the league. I lack some midfield strength, but I can improve that through the trade market later on. The Sanchez/Sterling combo should carry me through for now.

@SportsByGotti – C+

SportsByGotti was very quiet early on, spending his first cash on Oscar at the 50^th pick. He waited long to spend money and it seems that pushed him to overspend on a number of players. Emmanuel Adebayor is in no way worth $10 and Willian just isn’t that good of a fantasy player to command $15. The overpay on Patrick Bamford was a late decision fueled by the presence of leftover money, but those were probably better off spent in free agency when a big name inevitably comes to the Premier League between now and the start of week one. I do like some of his moves though, particularly Diafra Sakho, Lukasz Fabianski, and Wilfried Zaha at their respective prices.

@FuzzyWarbles and @cjradune

Grades

@FuzzyWarbles – A-

I absolutely love Steve’s draft here. He overpaid a bit for David Silva but the prices he paid on Sadio Mane, Juan Mata, and John Terry were all good. James Ward-Prowse was a steal at $5 and the squad balance is great as Steve is strong in every position. There is no pick here that I hate, which is a great sign.

@cjradune – B

If cjradune didn’t have $47 left, I would consider this draft a failure. He failed to make a big splash and his highest spending was on a defender in Toby Alderweireld. He does, however, take a chance on Daniel Sturridge late in the draft, who can be a top striker if healthy. Pablo Zabaleta was a good deal and he has enough money to the point where he is basically guaranteed to win a bidding war on the next big name to enter the Premier League. To use a more professional term, he’s rebuilding.

A lot of words here from me today but I hope everyone found this useful when preparing for their own Auction draft. Good luck!

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