Fantasy Roundtable: Roundtable: Deadline Ducks
This is the weekly Fantasy Roundtable, where the writers of Rotoworld Baseball let the readers of Rotoworld Baseball in on a quick staff discussion. It’s water cooler talk … that we’ve decided to publish. Look for it every Tuesday.
Drew Silva: In last week’s Fantasy Roundtable, we identified some players who might take on more fantasy value for the stretch run after the July 31 trade deadline. Now let’s flip it and talk about who might get hurt by deadline moves …
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D.J. Short: I think you’d have to talk about some of the closers who could be dealt to situations where they wouldn’t actually close. Or someone who would be pushed into a set-up role if their team acquires a big-name closer. Tyler Clippard had 17 saves as Oakland’s primary closer this season, but he’s expected to serve as a set-up man for Jeurys Familia after being traded to the Mets on Monday. We could see a similar situation if the Braves deal Jim Johnson to a contender by Friday. Alternatively, All-Star closer Drew Storen could be pushed into a set-up role if the Nationals end up snagging Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman this week. It’s an interesting time in the race for saves.
David Shovein: One player who could see his fantasy value decline after the madness of the trade deadline concludes is Joakim Soria. With each mounting loss, the chances of the Tigers becoming sellers at the trade deadline increases, and Soria is just one of many impending free agents who is likely to be dealt. While he’s in the midst of another fantastic season, most contenders would covet the 31-year-old for a setup role as opposed to supplanting their current closer in the ninth inning. Like D.J., I’m also worried about Drew Storen. With all of the rumblings surrounding the Nationals targeting Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman, there’s a much larger possibility than there should be that Storen finds himself relegated to a setup role in the Nats bullpen.
On the offensive side, I see Gerardo Parra as a player who will lose quite a bit of fantasy value after the trade deadline. He has worked his way into a nearly everyday role atop the Brewers lineup, and hitting in the offensive paradise that is Miller Park. If dealt, there’s a good chance that he could wind up in a platoon role, with a downgrade in lineup spot and home ballpark being near certainties.
Nathan Grimm: With an eye on last night’s blockbuster, I think any players who will be traded from the Rockies or Blue Jays — but not from the Rockies to the Blue Jays, as Troy Tulowitzki was — will stand to lose value due to a change in their surroundings alone. The Rockies have now shown a willingness to do what they haven’t done in recent years, to tear it all down. Carlos Gonzalez, who has enjoyed a huge resurgence in recent weeks, could be the next to go, and moving out of Coors Field will almost certainly hurt his value. The young core should be safe, but someone like Wilin Rosario could also be made available in the next few days.
This is speculation, but I also don’t see how the Jays are done adding to or subtracting from their major league roster. Tulo adds offense to an already offensive team, but they need a frontline starter in the worst way. Getting a Cole Hamels or David Price might require them to deal from their 25-man roster, and a move away from a team scoring 5.28 runs per game would be a bad one for a player’s value. I’ll throw one name out with zero basis for my concern: Edwin Encarnacion. The next four days will be interesting at the very least.
Ryan Boyer: As you guys have outlined, many of the players who will lose fantasy value this week are relievers, whether it’s because they’re traded from closer to setup role or another reliever is brought in to usurp closing duties. The one real bummer looks like it will be Storen, who has been fantastic this season and doesn’t at all deserve to lose his job. It looks like the Nationals might get Jonathan Papelbon, who has said he will only approve a trade if he’s going to a team to close. Even if a deal for Paps falls through, general manager Mike Rizzo seems intent on adding to the bullpen. At this point, it appears Storen’s only hope is if Rizzo has to settle for more of a setup type like a Soria or perhaps someone like Kevin Jepsen.
Some others I’ll throw out that seem likely to lose value involve, well, basically the entire Padres’ rotation, as San Diego looks to be fielding offers for James Shields, Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy. Shields in particular has been a ton better at Petco Park than he has been on the road. Even with a guy like Kennedy, who has actually pitched better away from Petco, it’s hard to feel optimistic about him going forward if he goes to a place like Toronto (a team that’s been linked to him).
Drew Silva: There’s talk of Ben Revere being on the trade block and I suspect teams looking to acquire him are doing so with their bench in mind. He has already been relegated to a part-time role in Philly, but I’m guessing he becomes even more of a pinch-running, late-inning defensive sub type if he’s dealt. But that all depends on where he goes, if he goes at all. Just something to chew on. Revere does have 24 stolen bases in 93 games (81 starts) this season. Rajai Davis is in a similar mold, and it’s very possible that he gets moved if the Tigers decide they’re sellers.
Matthew Pouliot: I’ll just ignore the closers here. I worry about Yoenis Cespedes losing some value. I love him as a No. 2 or No. 3 hitter for the Tigers now that he’s finally moved up in the order, but he might end up in a significantly worse situation with a trade. Potentially, he could spend the last two months as a No. 5 hitter in a worse lineup and a worse ballpark for offense.
For starting pitchers, I’m most concerned about Mat Latos and Ian Kennedy. Both have some mixed-league value now, but I’m not sure I’d use a roster spot on either if they land in the American League. I wouldn’t be quite as concerned about the Padres’ other starters, especially Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner. As nice as Petco is, both of those guys have lost value because of the Padres’ defense, and getting to a better defensive club might actually give them a boost.
Disagree? Want to add something? Got a question? You can find each of these @Rotoworld_BB writers on Twitter: @drewsilv, @djshort, @daveshovein, @nate_grimm, @ryanpboyer, @matthewpouliot.
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