MLB DFS Picks | July 27 – SportsGrid – SportsGrid
July 27 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
It’s another exciting night in MLB DFS as both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering six figure prize pools! Mike Leone of the DailyRoto Daily Fantasy Rundown shares some picks and analysis to help get you started with your lineups.
Lance Lynn (STL) – On a day with very limited pitching options at both the high end and mid-tier levels, Lynn emerges as our clear number one starting pitcher, in a tier of his own. We like Lynn when he’s facing three or less LHBs. Against the Reds, he’ll face four, but outside of Joey Votto (158 wRC+ against RHP since 2012) you have Jay Bruce (109), Brayan Pena (99) and Billy Hamilton (71). It should also be noted that Lynn has improved a ton against LHBs as his career has progressed. Here are Lynn’s wOBAs allowed to LHBs in sequential order from 2012 to 2015: .466/.340/.314/.294. He’s currently striking out a career best 21.5 percent of LHBs. With that concern taken care of, or at least mitigated, we can focus on some more macro contextual factors in his favor, such as Lynn’s overall skills, the ballpark and Vegas. Lynn is having the best year of his career (the improvements against LHBs surely help), posting a 2.68 FIP, 3.24 xFIP and career best 26.1 K percentage. He’ll be at home tonight in pitcher friendly Busch Stadium (2.64 career home ERA, 4.11 on the road), which represents a significant downgrade in park factor for the Reds offense. Finally, Vegas is also very optimistic in regards to Lynn. He’s the heaviest favorite on the day (-205), and the total is just 7.5, pushing downwards, giving the Reds an implied run total in the low three’s. Perhaps Lynn isn’t (and shouldn’t) be the pitcher we’d normally associate with top billing, but given the uncertainty of the alternative options, he strikes me as a core cash game play this evening.
Matt Wieters (BAL) – Wieters was scratched yesterday due to a stiff back but is expected back in the lineup today. Wieters has been a wreck at the plate from a plate discipline standpoint (.16 EYE, career mark is .45). As a result, we’ve been a bit more selective in using him after relying on him too heavily when he was first activated off of the DL. Today, is a spot where he’s worth the risk. First off, his price has bottomed out. At $2,300 on FanDuel and $2,600 on DraftKings, you’d pretty much take a catcher regardless of skills who had the platoon edge, top five lineup spot and a favorable hitter’s park, which Wieters does. Secondly, the opportunity cost is almost nothing on today’s nine game slate. The catcher position is about as weak as I remember it. Finally, Wieters is not without upside despite the problems he’s had. He projects to be one of the more powerful hitting catchers, and his hard hit rate of 35.4 percent is fine. Wieters simply needs to be a bit more selective at the plate so he can cut down on the Ks and elevate the pitches he is swinging at.
Like what you see? We go way more in-depth at DailyRoto.com, with advice from Drew Dinkmeyer, Mike Leone, and others, that produced three Millionaire Maker winners in 2014
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