Sacramento Kings part ways with analytics guru Dean Oliver
The Sacramento Kings’ turbulent summer shows no signs of reaching stability. In an offseason that has already seen a confounding power struggle between head coach George Karl and star DeMarcus Cousins and curious movies in free agency to chase a very unlikely playoff berth, the franchise has now cut ties with a notable member of the front office. The latest decision falls in line with recent patterns while simultaneously raising new concerns about the future of the Kings.
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According to a report from Sportando, Sacramento has ceased communication with so-called “father of basketball analytics” Dean Oliver, who was hired as the team’s director of player personnel and analytics just this September. Oliver, whose 2004 book “Basketball on Paper” continues to be a foundational text of the advanced analytics movement, appears to have butted heads with Vlade Divac, who has become the team’s lead basketball decision-maker in recent months:
High profile former ESPN analytics guru, Dean Oliver who was hand picked by owner Vivek Ranadive, as Director of Player Personnel, and Head of Analytics a season ago, and who has multiple years left on his contract with the Kings – was told by new Kings VP Vlade Divac not to attend NBA Summer League.
Oliver was in attendance anyway and was seen with King coaches. Oliver was not permitted to be there in his official capacity with the team.
Divac has told confidants that he is strongly opposed to the use of analytics in evaluating players, and has halted all communication with Oliver.
Bill Herenda of CSN California and several others confirmed the report on Twitter.
The news comes as a surprise only insofar as Oliver initially seemed a terrific fit for the outlook of Kings owner Vivek Ranadive, who made his fortune as founder of the data-driven technology company TIBCO. Yet Oliver’s method has clearly not held much sway as the Kings have added players like Rajon Rondo (now the statistical equivalent of an oversized “Do Not Enter” sign) and generally put together a team of ill-fitting parts (though that would be clear to most old-school minds, as well). Whether due to personality clashes, philosophical differences, or some other combination of factors, the Kings haven’t looked to have had much use for Oliver and his approach. He had little sway, even in an organization with so many differing views.
It’s likely that Oliver’s role became smaller as Divac’s increased in importance. If the Sportando report is correct, then Divac has no time for analytics (and his offseason moves suggest as much), then there is no point for Oliver to be involved with the Kings and this resolution makes a great deal of sense. For that matter, Divac appears to be in control of many of the team’s decisions at this moment, from the decision not to trade Cousins to the signing of Rondo to the organization’s reported refusal to hire George’s son Coby Karl as an assistant coach. Additionally, Marc Stein of ESPN reports that Divac has extended an offer to former Kings and Serbia teammate Peja Stojakovic for a full-time front-office role. Given the duo’s history, Stojakovic’s inclusion in the organization would consolidate Divac’s power.
On the other hand, there’s no guarantee that Divac will stay in that position long enough to see the outcome of work. The consistent theme of Ranadive’s first few years as owner is that he changes direction with an inability to wait for assessable results, let alone analyze them properly. Divac may have power now, but you once could have said the same of past Kings decision-makers like Michael Malone, Pete D’Alessandro, Chris Mullin and Oliver, most of whom hold very different ideas about how the team should play and operate. The most salient connection between TIBCO and Ranadive’s vision for the Kings may not have been a belief in analytics, but the idea that decisions need to be made as quickly as possible on a case-by-case basis. The result is that the franchise looks to have no real long-term plan outside of the owner’s ability to rule by fiat.
Unfortunately, that means it’s very difficult to glean any greater meaning from Oliver’s dismissal. On the face of it, the move solves an otherwise irreconcilable philosophical clash between a statistician and a legendary player in the franchise’s history. But it doesn’t say much about whether the Kings will continue to value on-court expertise over analytical know-how, the degree to which analytics will factor into the decision-making process from now on, or the extent of Divac’s power.
It’s anyone’s guess as to what will happen if the Kings start next season with a string of losses. Perhaps we’ll write a similar version of this article, just a few new names and a different order.
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Eric Freeman is a writer for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
