Offseason Low Down: Buccaneers Fantasy Preview

Buccaneers Year in Review

2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 21st (531)
2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 31st (353)
2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 31st (936)
2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 29th (5.0)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Jameis Winston
RB: Doug Martin
WR: Mike Evans
WR: Vincent Jackson
WR: Louis Murphy
TE: Austin Seferian-Jenkins
LT: Donovan Smith
LG: Logan Mankins
C: Evan Dietrich-Smith
RG: Ali Marpet
RT: Demar Dotson

Passing Game Outlook

Jameis Winston was a dominant college player, winning the Heisman as a redshirt freshman in 2013 and leading Florida State to a BCS national title followed by an undefeated 2014 regular season. Finishing his career with a 65:28 TD-to-INT ratio and 66.0% completion rate, Winston consistently made the likes of Rashad Greene and Nick O’Leary look better than they really were. While a sub-par athlete, Winston is an old-school pocket quarterback with a naturally anticipatory and aggressive mindset that too often resulted in interceptions in 2014, exacerbated by a poor supporting cast. When he had Kelvin Benjamin (6’5/240) to target in 2013, Winston threw 40 touchdowns and only ten picks. In Tampa Bay, Winston is set up for statistical success surrounded by contested-catch-winning behemoths Mike Evans (6’5/231), Vincent Jackson (6’5/241), and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (6’6’262) in new OC Dirk Koetter‘s vertical passing attack. With a talent-deficient defense to compensate for, Winston is a candidate to rank top five in the NFL in pass attempts. He’s my OROY pick and should be a useful streamer in many weeks this year facing the NFL’s softest quarterback schedule.

Although ultimately outshined by Odell Beckham, Mike Evans was the NFL’s most impressive rookie wideout for much of 2014. Quickly bypassing Vincent Jackson as the Bucs’ No. 1 passing-game option, Evans scored 12 TDs over his final 12 games, vehemently confirming his jumpball-winning ability from Texas A&M was a translatable skill. The arrow is screaming upward on Evans, who won’t turn 22 until August and has played only three full seasons of organized football after focusing on basketball in his high school years. Including college, Evans has hit pay dirt 27 times over his last 31 games. Even if Evans’ TDs regress off 2014, he has lots of room for growth in catches (68) and yards (1,051). Evans is sure to benefit from the upgrade of Jameis Winston over Josh McCown and Mike Glennon, as well as an offense that will play faster going from overmatched 2014 OC Marcus Arroyo to Dirk Koetter, whose three Falcons teams ranked 13th, 17th, and 8th in total offensive plays. Last year’s Bucs ranked 31st. Evans will play X receiver in Koetter’s scheme, where Julio Jones ranked third in the NFL in targets last year (163). Evans finished his rookie year 28th (123) in the NFL in targets.

Vincent Jackson‘s 2014 catch (70) and yardage (1,002) totals were around his career norms, but V-Jax disappointed in fantasy because he only scored two TDs while teammate Mike Evans hogged a dozen. Although it’s a legitimate question whether Jackson has fallen deep into his decline phase at age 32, it’s also difficult to say for sure considering the ineptitude of the Bucs’ 2014 quarterbacks and passing game as a unit. Football Outsiders charted Jackson with the second-most “uncatchable” targets (44) among NFL receivers, while PFF deemed just 55% of the passes thrown to V-Jax “on target.” Jameis Winston won’t have to light up the league as a rookie to upgrade on Josh McCown and Mike Glennon. While Evans will play the Julio Jones-style X role in new OC Dirk Koetter‘s offense, the Bucs plan to use Jackson as a flexible Z who aligns both at flanker and in the slot, depending on personnel packages. I’m not bullish on Jackson regaining difference-making fantasy form, but am viewing him as a passable WR3 this year. Jackson offers respectable value in the seventh round of drafts.

As is typically the case with rookie tight ends, Austin Seferian-Jenkins endured a rough NFL debut. A college foot injury continued to haunt ASJ into November, before a back injury sent him to I.R. a month later. Lasting only nine games, Seferian-Jenkins finished with 21 receptions and two scores. Seferian-Jenkins was one of the players new OC Dirk Koetter talked up immediately after taking the Bucs’ job, and Koetter’s history indeed bodes well for ASJ’s chances at a bigger role. As a coordinator, Koetter oversaw two top-four tight end seasons from late-career Tony Gonzalez in Atlanta, after Marcedes Lewis turned in a 10-touchdown year for Koetter’s 2010 Jaguars. More importantly, 22-year-old Seferian-Jenkins (6’6/262) is a mammoth red-zone presence with better-than-advertised athleticism when healthy. Still, my guess is ASJ won’t hit his statistical ceiling until Vincent Jackson leaves Tampa Bay. I do like Seferian-Jenkins as a TE2 target if you can get him in round 12 or 13.

Journeyman Louis Murphy, sophomore Robert Herron, and fifth-round pick Kenny Bell will vie for third receiver duties this fall. Murphy (6’2/203) is likely the favorite after the Bucs signed him to an in-season contract extension last December. Herron (5’9/193) possesses an ideal skill set for an NFL slot receiver but earned only 120 snaps as a rookie, dropping 2-of-11 targets. Bell (6’1/197) has the most upside of the group, leaving Nebraska as the Cornhuskers’ all-time leader in receptions and receiving yards before running 4.42 with a springy 41 1/2-inch vertical at the Combine. While this camp battle is worth monitoring — and Bell could eventually make noise in Dynasty leagues — the odds of re-draft value here are slim.

Running Game Outlook

Doug Martin enters a make-or-break year, certainly with the Bucs and quite possibly for his career. A top-two fantasy back as a rookie in 2012, Martin has finished 57th and 47th the past two seasons, managing 3.64 yards per carry over his last 17 games. Albeit in a tiny, three-game sample, Martin did close out 2014 on a fast note, piling up 221 yards on 43 runs (5.14 YPC) against the Panthers, Packers, and Saints. Spring rhetoric on Martin was overwhelmingly positive; he’s dropped his weight from 225 to 210 and reportedly had his “best offseason in three years,” while handling the vast majority of first-team reps at OTAs and minicamp. Martin is known to have a fan in new OC Dirk Koetter, who stumped to keep “Muscle Hamster” on the roster after accepting the Bucs’ job. Martin is worth a swing at his seventh-round Average Draft Position, but expectations should probably be limited. The Buccaneers are built to be a pass-first team, and the run blocking figures to remain among the league’s worst. Charles Sims is sure to swipe receptions in a projected running back committee.

A 2014 third-round pick, Sims fractured his right ankle in last year’s training camp and opened the season on I.R./designated for return. Debuting in Week 10, Sims failed to make a late-season fantasy dent, rotating with Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey and struggling to find any running lanes en route to a putrid 2.80 YPC average. Sims has plus versatility, but isn’t a flashy talent and doesn’t create on his own as a runner. He is reportedly beloved by the coaching staff and was drafted by the current regime, whereas Martin is a holdover. Sims should be locked into some usage in what will very likely be an improved Bucs offense. Calling plays in Atlanta last season, new Bucs OC Dirk Koetter‘s Falcons ranked seventh in the NFL in passing-game targets to running backs (133). Still, Sims’ pedestrian talent and role-player profile cap his upside. He may catch 40-plus balls this year, but won’t score TDs and is unlikely to overtake Martin.

Vegas Win Total

The Bucs have exciting young firepower in their passing game, but are still squarely in rebuild mode. Their defensive end depth chart is easily the worst in football, while the running game figures to be hit or miss at best on a weekly basis. The offensive line is being pieced together with two rookie starters, including one who played Division-3 college football last year. On defense, this team will struggle to both rush the passer and cover in the back end with a rag-tag safety corps. My guess is the 2015 Buccaneers end up in a lot of shootout-type games, and fail to win them. I do believe the Jameis Winston pick has Tampa Bay headed in the right direction, but envision the Bucs as a 4-12/5-11 team this year. Their Vegas Win Total is 6.0.

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