Shutdown Countdown: Bills try to break playoff streak the old school way

Shutdown Corner is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per day in reverse order of our initial 2015 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on Aug. 8, the day before the preseason begins with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton.

NO. 15: BUFFALO BILLS

The knock on Rex Ryan’s New York Jets teams was that they didn’t have good enough quarterback play or a dynamic enough offense to be consistent championship contender in a passing league.

Yeah, well, about that …

Ryan changed addresses, moving from the Jets to the Buffalo Bills, but the refrain will sound familiar.

The Bills are a talented team that seems to be strong in most areas, except quarterback. The Bills haven’t made the playoffs since the end of the 1999 season and haven’t won a playoff game since Dec. 30, 1995. They’ll try to end the drought playing a style that would be better suited for another era.

That’s not to say it can’t work.

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Ryan had success with the Jets despite less-than-ideal quarterback play, so at least this won’t be his first rodeo. Matt Cassel will be used to his role, too. In 2010 with the Chiefs, Cassel did a fine job as a complementary piece, handing off a lot and not making mistakes as Kansas City won the AFC West. That’s his role in Buffalo: Get the ball to the playmakers once in a while (and there are plenty, for a team without much at quarterback), and don’t screw up the rest. We’ve seen teams have moderate success playing this way. It’s just that there’s not much room for error.

But then this offseason there were rumblings that Cassel looked terrible and even reports that Tyrod Taylor might end up the starter. A lot of things are said with confidence in May and June that don’t have much chance of coming true — I remember last spring when Christine Michael was going to be a star at running back for the Seahawks — and I think Cassel wins the job. It just shows that the Bills are not in good shape there. The EJ Manuel pick two years ago set the franchise back. Manuel was a first-round pick and just hasn’t played well enough to win the job. Maybe that changes, but there hasn’t been much buzz about him this offseason.

The rest of the roster looks really good on paper, maybe better than you’ve realized if you’re not from Buffalo. The defense is strong at every level. It held Green Bay to 13 points in a Dec. 14 win last season. It would be rather surprising if the running game wasn’t productive after adding LeSean McCoy in a trade with Philadelphia. That was the moment Ryan announced what kind of football he was going to play this season. And the Sammy Watkins-Robert Woods-Percy Harvin-Charles Clay group in the passing game is clearly capable if they can get the ball.

It all depends on this sliding scale at quarterback. Do they get a “B” effort, like Cassel did in 2010? Do you get an “F,” like Cassell’s six-touchdown, 12-interception 2012 season? Somewhere in between? If the rest of the Bills play like they did last year, in going 9-7 with a competent Kyle Orton, the quarterback issue will determine if they break this playoff streak.

2014 review in less than 25 words: The Bills were pretty good all year, including a nice quality win over the Packers, and finished a promising 9-7.

Is the roster better, worse or about the same?: McCoy is the headliner, and he’s a very good player, but I didn’t love that trade involving Kiko Alonso for a few reasons. I also like safety Da’Norris Searcy, who left to Tennessee, and everyone seems to think running back C.J. Spiller will erupt this season in New Orleans now that he has left Buffalo. And don’t forget that Orton left via retirement, and based on how he played last year, he would have been the Bills’ clear starter right now. The Bills also added Harvin and Clay. They’ll help, but Harvin needs to stay healthy and not be a locker-room issue. Also, there’s no first-round rookie because of last year’s Watkins trade. I know there’s excitement in Buffalo, but I think the roster is about the same.

Best offseason acquisition: While it’s McCoy, it’s at least worth asking why Chip Kelly traded him just to turn around and sign DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. McCoy’s yards from scrimmage went from 2,146 in 2013 to 1,474 in 2014. His yards per carry went from 5.1 to 4.2 and yards per catch went from 10.4 to 5.5. He wasn’t as decisive, though a poor offensive line early in the year contributed to that. Don’t forget, McCoy was a pretty big disappointment in 2012, as well, with 840 yards, a 4.2 average and two touchdowns. By their actions, in the trade and in the contract, the Bills believe they are getting an All-Pro at running back. Maybe they are, if we see 2013 McCoy again.

Achilles’ heel: Again, there were rumors that Tyrod Taylor might beat out Matt Cassel to start at quarterback. This category isn’t hard to figure out.

Position in flux: The Bills have slowly upgraded their offensive line, but there are still some position battles to sort out. The team signed Richie Incognito, and while he’s probably the last person who will make waves off the field after he was shamed in the Dolphins scandal, it’s unclear if he can still play guard at a high level. John Miller, Cyril Richardson and Chris Williams will be battling for guard spots too. At right tackle Cyrus Kouandjio looked like a steal for the Bills in the second round in 2014, until he struggled as a rookie and appeared in just one game. Seantrel Henderson, who slipped to the seventh round, started all year ahead of him but the results weren’t great. The right tackle battle will be an interesting one.

Ready to break out: Cornerback Stephon Gilmore has had a solid first three seasons, starting 39 games and playing well at times. I think he takes another step this season and becomes a top-end corner. Gilmore finished his third season with positive grades in each of his last eight games, according to Pro Football Focus. He once was the 10th pick of the draft, and Ryan loves his corners. He’ll have a fine season.

Stat fact: Among any Bills player in history with more than 10 career passing attempts, the team’s all-time leader in quarterback rating is … Kyle Orton. It’s true, he leads the pack at 87.8. For all the jokes about Orton, he did play well in his final NFL season. Nobody ever thinks of losing Orton as a major blow, but it’s possible the Bills take a pretty big step down at that position this season.

Schedule degree of difficulty: The Bills’ first three games are against Indianapolis and New England at home and at Miami. That New England game could be with Jimmy Garoppolo making his first career road start (Tom Brady’s appeal was in its 32nd day of uncertainty when this preview was published). But if the Bills start the season with Andrew Luck and Brady and then travel to face the Dolphins, we’ll know a lot about them before September is done.

This team’s best-case scenario for the 2015 season: A playoff berth. I heard from so many fans after criticizing the Bills for giving up the extra first-round pick for Watkins, who ripped me because the Bills had to “go for it” with “it” simply being any playoff berth, that I understand the desperation there. That streak isn’t fun. I’m guessing Bills fans would sign up for the AFC’s sixth seed at this moment and do so with a huge smile. And why can’t they get a playoff berth? The quarterback situation is messy, but everything else is very good. And lost in all of Ryan’s public bravado is that he’s a supreme motivator and fantastic at Xs and Os.

And here’s the nightmare scenario: It’s possible there’s a quarterback carousel this season. You can see the seeds of it. Cassel and Taylor both get shots, eventually Manuel gets a shot because why not, and that goes on all year because nobody does the job. Then if McCoy is good but not great, maybe the offense isn’t potent enough to get the team to another winning season.

The crystal ball says: I’d like to pick the Bills to make the playoffs. Their fans deserve to be back in, and it would be fun to have Ryan back to his swashbuckling ways. But I worry about teams that have to win a lot of close games because they won’t be able to score a ton. And I don’t see the quarterbacks being good enough to give the Bills many easy wins — if you ranked the NFL’s quarterback situations the Bills have a good shot at being No. 32, and that’s a lot to overcome. That’s the main reason I’m not picking them to make the playoffs. And, probably even worse, the Bills will be good enough that they’ll have no shot to draft a potential franchise quarterback next year either.

Previous previews
32. Tennessee Titans
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
30. Washington Redskins
29. Oakland Raiders
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27. New York Jets
26. Chicago Bears
25. Cleveland Browns
24. Atlanta Falcons
23. San Francisco 49ers
22. New York Giants
21. New Orleans Saints
20. Houston Texans
19. Carolina Panthers
18. St. Louis Rams
17. Minnesota Vikings
16. San Diego Chargers