Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: Best MLB DraftKings Picks, Advice for July 25 … – Bleacher Report
Some unsung MLB stars lead Saturday’s DraftKings lineup recommendations.
During a full slate headlined by several marquee aces, an unheralded stud tops his celebrated peers. On the offensive side, an MVP candidate is oddly affordable despite getting a beneficial matchup. Both make strong building blocks for a profitable lineup.
Pitcher Picks: Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs ($11,900) vs. Philadelphia and Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals ($8,300) at Pittsburgh
Andrew Nelles/Associated Press
Build Saturday’s lineup around Jake Arrieta, who’s worth every dollar at a lofty $11,900 against the Philadelphia Phillies. If his 2.52 ERA, 2.53 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 26.7 strikeout percentage aren’t enough to take the plunge, take a look at his recent dominance, per Comcast SportsNet Chicago’s Christopher Kamka:
Jake Arrieta last 6 starts: 0.96 ERA, 46.2 IP, 24 Hits, 44 K/7 BB, 0.66 WHIP #Cubs
— Christopher Kamka (@ckamka) July 19, 2015
Philadelphia placing last in weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties makes the decision even easier. Nothing against Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner and Matt Harvey, but Arrieta is the day’s best play.
Gio Gonzalez has allowed four runs over his last four starts, going at least six innings in each outing. While his strikeouts are alarmingly fading, down to 7.78 per nine innings with 20 during his past 29.1 frames, the Pittsburgh Pirates post a 23.6 strikeout percentage against lefties.
Hitter Picks
Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit (RHP Alfredo Simon)
Michael Dwyer/Associated Press
Stock up on Boston Red Sox lefties against Alfredo Simon, who has relinquished a .314/.369/.537 slash line against them this season. Over his last six starts, the beleaguered Detroit Tigers righty has surrendered 53 hits and 32 earned runs.
The Red Sox have several sluggers to exploit his misfortune:
POS | Player | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | HR | wOBA | DK Price |
1B | David Ortiz | 266 | .268 | .380 | .527 | 17 | .383 | $4,100 |
3B | Pablo Sandoval | 246 | .285 | ,333 | .439 | 7 | .337 | $2,800 |
3B/OF | Brock Holt | 240 | .288 | .360 | .400 | 2 | .336 | $3,300 |
OF | Alejandro De Aza | 199 | .283 | .333 | .473 | 6 | .346 | $3,200 |
FanGraphs.com; DraftKings.com
Brock Holt doesn’t brandish enough power or speed, but he reaches base and frequently bats second. Pablo Sandoval and Alejandro De Aza make better bargain plays. De Aza has a .384 wOBA against righties since joining Boston, and the Kung Fu Panda costs a minuscule $2,800, presenting a tempting tournament punt.
3B Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays ($4,400) at Seattle
Ben Margot/Associated Press
Eyes DraftKings’ price listing suspiciously. Sees Josh Donaldson, a .338/.384/.662 hitter against lefties, costs $4,400 against southpaw J.A. Happ. Looks to left. Turns to right. Checks to see if Happ learned to pitch with right hand or Felix Hernandez changed his name to “J.A. Happ.”
Perhaps the discount amounts to Donaldson playing at Safeco Field instead of the Rogers Centre, where he has hit 15 of his 23 homers with a 1.040 OPS. Yet he almost always goes for around $5,000 in this situation. Take the discount.
1B Adam Lind ($4,500) and 2B Scooter Gennett ($3,200), Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona
Morry Gash/Associated Press
Rather than constantly getting burned by Rubby De La Rosa, let’s expose his glaring weakness. Lefties are hitting .310/.369/.598 with 16 home runs against the Arizona Diamondbacks hurler, making a pair of Milwaukee Brewers strong plays.
No longer a sneaky pick, Adam Lind still merits consideration with his .303/.387/.551 slash line against righties. For a cheaper option, the revived Scooter Gennett boasts a .760 OPS against righties. Since getting recalled from the minors in June, he’s batting .327 with three long balls.
OF Chris Young ($3,000), New York Yankees at Minnesota
Steven Senne/Associated Press
Always popular targets when fed lefties, Chris Young and Ryan Raburn each get a southpaw on Saturday. Raburn, however, must combat Sale while Young gets Tommy Milone, who has an .834 OPS against righties.
Even with Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran back in the fold, the lefty-raking Young will keep playing against southpaws. “I would think against every lefty we face he will be in there,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi assured ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand.
PA | BA | OBP | SLG | HR | wOBA |
98 | .371 | .423 | .685 | 6 | .470 |
FanGraphs.com
Less overall playing time will help minimize Young’s price for days like these, where he’s an enormous value despite hacking away from Yankee Stadium.
Note: Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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