Offseason Beat: Summer League: Southeast

The Southeast Division has always been a weird one. There always seems to be a number of teams trending in different directions and it’s usually not very deep. That was no different with the Hawks exploding, the Heat losing LeBron James, the Wizards showing some consistency and Bobcats Hornets changing names. As for their Summer Leagues teams, there were some solid prospects.

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In case you missed it in the first part, each team will also have an impact rating next to it. It’ll be a rating of 1-10 based on how much the Summer League roster will affect the big club in October. If it’s 1-3, that means there are low expectations from the players on that roster. On the other hand, 8-10 will be for teams with multiple players set to contribute right off the bat.

Hawks (Impact rating: 3)

They had the best record in the Eastern Conference and have solid depth even with the loss of DeMarre Carroll, but there are a couple things to like about their young guys. While the immediate impact isn’t there, one guy has some serious potential. That guy is…

Walter Tavares, Hawks C – I love Edy. He’s 7’3” tall and has a 7’9” wingspan! Seven! Foot! Nine! After seeing him in person, I can say those numbers are not exaggerated. The Hawks used the last bit of their cap space to sign Tavares to a guaranteed deal this month and he will be with them this season.

As for his performance, he showed his ceiling in a big way. In just 20.5 minutes per game in Vegas, Tavares averaged 2.8 blocks, 7.2 points, 6.7 boards, 0.3 steals and 1.8 turnovers in six outings. He lived in the paint and was one of the best rim protectors. Per Synergy, Tavares had a very good season around the rim with Gran Canaria last year, making 68 percent from within three feet and allowing just 28 percent from the field to his man on interior shots. He’s a beast.

Still, it takes some time to get all those arms and legs into unison. It took Rudy Gobert a couple years and Tavares is in a similar spot to Rudy from two summers ago. We’ll see if he can get any minutes, but maybe he can get in the rotation next season. He’d need an injury to get run to start this 2015-16 season.

Mike Muscala, Hawks F – He’s going to make the team in October and he showed why in Las Vegas. The Moose really struggled from deep in Vegas with a 3-point percentage of just 15.4, but he still managed to post averages of 9.8 points, 7.3 boards, 2.5 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 0.3 treys on 36.4 percent from the field and 89.5 percent from the line. He also went to the line 5.0 times per game in his last three and was one of the better offensive power forwards in Vegas.

Of course, Muscala is stuck behind Paul Millsap for the power forward minutes. The Hawks added Tiago Splitter, which pushes Al Horford to power forward at times — the Hawks are also expected to play Millsap at the three to give them a huge frontline. The 6’11 Bucknell product might not make the rotation.

Lamar Patterson, Hawks F -The second-round pick from the 2014 draft didn’t get any playing time with the Hawks last year and went overseas to play in Turkey. In his 29 games there, Patterson averaged 11.2 points, 3.4 boards, 2.2 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.4 treys on 43.2 percent from the field in 28.6 minutes per game. Patterson also wasn’t very impressive at Summer League in 2014, scoring 6.0 points per game on 34.2 percent from the field.

Well, he looked a little better this time around. Patterson averaged 13.1 points, 5.1 boards, 3.4 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.3 treys per game on 45.2 percent from the field. The 6’5 swingman handled the ball much more this time and he was fairly comfortable in that capacity.

Patterson signed a non-guaranteed deal with the Hawks, so he’ll be there for camp. Expect him to go to the D-League this year and maybe get in the NBA in 2016-17. He has some potential, though.

Brandon Ashley, Hawks F – He’s probably not going to make a team, but I like Ashley. He stretches the floor as a near seven-footer and can defend a bit, too. Maybe he gets it going in a year or two.

Wizards (Impact rating: 3)

Compared to the Hawks, the Wizards are in a similar spot, but at least they had a lottery-type guy with 2015 No. 15 pick Kelly Oubre as the focal point of their Vegas team. Besides him, it was pretty slim. Here’s all you need to know on Oubre, though.

Kelly Oubre Jr., Wizards F – At first, Oubre was a disaster. He would dribble into traps, try to dribble out of triple-teams, and almost every defender knew he had no interest in using his teammates. In fact, he didn’t have a single assist in his first 81 minutes of action at Summer League. On top of that, he made just 20-of-59 from the field (33.9 percent) in his first four games. He was forcing any shot he could and his 10 turnovers in last three were mostly sloppy. Chances are he was coached up after that.

After that horrendous start, it finally started to click for Oubre. In his last two games, he averaged 20.0 points, 3.5 boards, 1.5 assists, 1.0 blocks, 0.5 steals, 1.0 turnovers and 2.5 treys on 48.1 percent from the field. He was moving without the ball and didn’t find himself in trouble nearly as much. Plus, his shot selection was a lot better, but he hit a fluky 5-of-7 from deep in his last game to boost his efficiency a ton.

Oubre was an isolation guy with the Jayhawks last year, averaging 9.3 points, 5.0 boards, 0.8 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.9 treys. He was only assisted on 35.6 percent of his two-pointers with Kansas and obviously the 0.8 dimes per game tell the story about how much he passes. Still, Oubre fared well when he was in isolation and the double- and triple-teams didn’t come.

If he is going to get minutes with the Wizards, his role is going to be quite different. John Wall routinely is among the league leaders for assisting on 3-pointers, so hitting open treys will be paramount for Oubre. Interestingly, all 34 of Oubre’s treys at Kansas were off an assist, so he does have it in him. Although, he was more of an above-the-break shooter and will need to shift more to the corners with the first unit. Oubre isn’t the strongest outside shooter just yet, making 35.8 percent at Kansas and 25.0 percent at Vegas.

He’s one of the most raw players in the draft. Meanwhile, Otto Porter busted loose in the playoffs, so Oubre is nowhere near getting consistent minutes. For fantasy, he doesn’t project as a strong asset because he is really just a scorer.

Jarrid Famous, Mavericks C – It’s all happening for Famous, and one day, he’ll be cool. Almost Famous wasn’t about a 6’11 center, but Famous had five solid games with the Wizards. He averaged 10.2 points, 6.8 boards, 0.6 steals and 0.4 blocks. He even made 84.0 percent from the line, including an 11-of-12 from the line in 26 minutes on July 12. Obviously, he’s nowhere near getting minutes with Dallas.

Heat (Impact rating: 5)

Miami had itself a solid offseason. They didn’t make a big splash, but they were able to keep Dwayne Wade while adding Gerald Green and Amare Stoudemire. They played in Orlando and in Las Vegas for Summer League.

Justise Winslow, Heat F – The Heat were happy to get Winslow at 10 in the draft. After a tough season, it’s a rare condition in this day and age to read any good news on the newspaper page. However, president Pat Riley having the love and tradition of the grand design, some people say it’s even harder to find.

To translate those Family Matters lyrics, it’s not often the Heat have a lottery pick because of how they tend to trade picks, and they were lucky to have a need fall to them. James Ennis was a nightmare last season while Luol Deng is in the last year of his deal and is having a tough time staying healthy. Winslow should get minutes right off the bat.

Everyone and their mom (Harriette Winslow?) thought Winslow was the steal of the draft. However, he might have been one of the most disappointing players at Summer League. In six games, he averaged just 9.0 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.0 blocks and 0.5 treys on 33.8 percent from the field. The one silver lining is that he went to the line 10.0 times per game in his first three — he was also an 85.0 percent shooter at the line in his games — and he saw his minutes take a major nosedive in his last three games. Winslow also suffered an ankle tweak in his last game and did not play following the injury as a precaution.

The biggest problem with Winslow was how he can’t go right. He was still able to beat his man off the dribble because the help defense wasn’t there. One thing that’s worth mentioning is how the Heat SF usually operates on the right wing with Dwyane Wade on the left wing. That means Winslow would have to really need to battle the teeth of the defense on his dribble penetration. The Heat are willing to play him at shooting guard, as well. That would probably help him in the early stages of his career.

Another aspect that was worth watching was his 3-point shooting. Winslow made a pristine 41.8 percent from deep at Duke last year, which is almost hard to believe after he made just 64.1 percent from the line. Although, that trey percentage comes with a grain of salt because he was assisted 93.5 percent of the time, a very high number for a wing. Still, Winslow hit 31.2 percent of his 12 attempts from beyond the arc at Summer League. That’s likely a more realistic expectation in the NBA, so he’s that means he’s likely to be more of a 0.2-0.5 trey per game guy and not the 1.2 trey guy he was at Duke.

The rest of Winslow’s numbers at Duke don’t translate very well. In 29.1 minutes per game, he averaged 12.6 points, 6.5 boards, 2.1 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.9 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. The steal and block numbers are not going to translate, especially the blocks because he’s not going to be so much bigger/better than his opposition. Winslow is more of an on-ball denier, so that means he’ll likely have less opportunities to get steals.

Winslow’s sub-par numbers from Summer League aren’t really a big deal and spraining his ankle is just bound to happen. Although, it’s worth noting he suffered a shoulder separation, a rib fracture and an ankle sprain at Duke. He’s not someone I’d want to target in re-draft leagues and he’s not a top-10 player in Dynasty leagues either (I had him at No. 10 from a ranking earlier, but players have leapfrogged him).

James Ennis, Heat F – He was outstanding overseas two seasons ago, but it just hasn’t clicked yet. In 62 games last season, Ennis made just 40.9 percent from the field for 5.0 points per game. He’s basically playing just small forward and the Heat never really let him slide over to the two.

His 2015 Summer League was really bad. Ennis made just 30.4 percent from the field for averages of 8.7 points, 5.0 boards, 1.6 assists and 0.8 steals. He was so bad (HOW BAD WAS HE??), he was so bad that he’s actually concerned the Heat won’t keep him next season. His contract isn’t guaranteed and the Heat picking up Winslow certainly hurts JE, too. Don’t expect him to get minutes next season.

Tyler Johnson, Heat G – Johnson is in the mix to leapfrog Shabazz Napier and the Heat are reportedly looking to deal Mario Chalmers, so he could get minutes at point guard. That was the case at Orlando with averages of 9.3 points, 4.0 boards, 2.3 assists, 0.3 steals and 0.7 blocks. Johnson didn’t really do much to separate himself in those three games and he didn’t play in Vegas because of a broken jaw suffered in his third game.

The good news is that he’s only going to miss six weeks and he should be fine for camp. His contract becomes 50 percent guaranteed on Aug. 1, so the Heat will likely be looking to deal Chalmers before that point. If a deal isn’t done, TJ might not be able to stay on the roster.

Zoran Dragic, Heat G – He didn’t have a strong showing either with 12.2 points, 3.8 boards, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.5 treys. At least Goran is happy his bro is around, unlike the Morrii.

Hornets (Impact rating: 7)

It is the Frank the Tank Show.

Frank Kaminsky, Hornets F – It was pretty clear Kaminsky was going to be the focal point for the Hornets’ Summer League team in Orlando. That was the case with Kaminsky getting the ball for 15.6 possessions per game and he didn’t disappoint with those chances, posting a 0.974 points per possessions. To translate how good that is, Justin Anderson was the only other 2015 first-round pick to match both of those numbers in the 2015 Summer League action.

The offensive skills were there. He had an array of post-up moves, created plenty of space on his mid-range game, beat guys off the dribble in isolation, and even made a 38.9 percent from beyond the arc. Kaminsky made 1.4 treys per game in Summer League to go with averages of 15.2 points, 7.8 boards, 0.8 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.4 turnovers.

We all knew the tools were there on offense at Wisconsin, but his stats were simply amazing. In his senior season, Kaminsky averaged 18.8 points, 8.2 boards, 2.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.5 blocks and 1.1 treys. He was extremely efficient with his 62.8 true shooting percentage to go with a usage rate of 28.6.

He was a monster around the rim at Madison and made 70.0 percent within three feet while only being assisted on 48.6 percent of those. That aspect of his game was on display at Orlando, but let’s not forget he went against some weak power forwards in Orlando. How weak? Well, in the games Kaminsky started at power forward, he went up against the following guys: Mitch McGary, JaMychal Green, Earl Clark, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (RHJ is a small forward, but he started at power forward in this game and went up against Frank a lot), and last but not least John Bohannon. OK, maybe last but least applies here. Anyway, not exactly Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin or LaMarcus Aldridge.

As for the defensive side in Orlando, the competition at power forward is going to help his appearance, too. Only Rondae Hollis-Jefferson put up big numbers against the Hornets, but Kaminsky wasn’t on him for the entire game, of course. The concern with Kaminsky is that he’s just not the specimen at power forward with less height, weight, strength and overall athletic ability than some of his prospect counterparts. That also raises the question that the Hornets could be highly susceptible to giving up huge lines to opposing bigs with Al Jefferson really losing some lateral mobility (Remember this, DFSers). As for the blocks, his 1.0 per game in Orlando was higher than expected even though he had 1.5 per game against college foes last year. Even if he’s getting 30 minutes, Kaminsky is going to have a tough time getting over 0.8 per game.

OK, so where does that leave his value? For the short term, it looks really good. The Hornets haven’t wavered on saying Kaminsky is their guy and owner Michael Jordan had a big say in his selection. The Hornets only have Tyler Hansbrough and Cody Zeller to push him at power forward — the sense is Marvin Williams will play more small forward this season. He has the potential to be a 13-7 guy with solid percentages. That makes him a target in re-draft leagues around pick 80-100. The long-term value isn’t quite as promising, though.

Magic (Impact rating: 8)

The Magic had themselves a loaded roster this month. In fact, they actually had two teams with the White and Blue teams in Orlando. They should have at least three players in the rotation from their Summer League team.

Aaron Gordon, Magic F – You could say Gordon was the most impressive player this month. Of course, his averages are nice: 21.7 points, 11.7 boards, 2.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.7 blocks and 2.0 treys on 50.0 percent from the field. Not only that, Gordon killed his man off the dribble and shot an uncanny amount of uncontested shots from all over the court.

The off-the-dribble stuff is huge and is a big improvement. On his 62 shots with at least two dribbles before the release last season, Gordon made just 38.7 of them — many of those were easy in transition, too. This summer, he torched guys in both directions and went up with authority around the basket. Gordon has top-notch athleticism and he added some extra muscle to his frame, so he could be a very effective guy when he’s at the rim.

Consequently, a guy getting to his rim has to make his free throws in order to max his potential. That was a problem for Gordon at Arizona with a free throw percentage of 42.2 and at Orlando Summer League at 52.4 percent. However, Gordon made 72.1 percent at the line in the NBA last season and his stroke isn’t visually displeasing like other awful shooters. He has a chance to get to 75 percent.

The big obstacle for Gordon is playing time. The Magic brought back Tobias Harris and they also picked up Mario Hezonja — more on him later. Gordon has been viewed as a better four, but maybe he put in the extra work to be more of a three. He also reportedly wanted to be more of a three entering the draft, so the motivation is there. Both Tobias and Gordon can play the three or the four, so that will help their versatility. Also, how bad does that Channing Frye deal look? Yeesh.

For fantasy, the jury is still out. We have to see him tear it up in the preseason to have value in standard leagues and he is only worth a pick in the 110-140 range right now. He’s a very interesting player in DFS because his motor/athleticism will produce some nice fantasy stats. We will definitely check on him in a couple months.

Elfrid Payton, Magic G – To be honest, he didn’t seem to interested in playing in Summer League. Can you blame him, though? Payton has his job locked up and playing next to someone not named Victor Oladipo is kind of pointless. Nevertheless, Payton averaged 5.5 points, 1.5 boards, 6.5 assists, 2.0 steals and 4.5 turnovers on 30.8 percent from the field.

He’s going to get his minutes and opportunities, but owners in standard fantasy shouldn’t care much. Many people thought he came on after the break with averages of 11.1 points, 5.4 boards, 8.3 assists, 2.1 steals and 0.3 treys. However, that was only good for seventh-round value in standard leagues. Although, it’s solid for DFS and in points leagues. In other words, let someone else take him in standard and keep your eyes peeled on him for DFS.

Mario Hezonja, Magic SF – He didn’t really fill up the stat sheet in Orlando, averaging 12.0 points, 2.5 boards, 1.0 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.0 treys in 24. 5 minutes. Hezonja was more of a floor-spacing guy with 58.3 percent of his shots coming from behind the long line. Still, he exhibited plenty of skill to get to the rack and took on plenty of PF/Cs. He was fearless around the rim and yet seemed to know when it was appropriate to when to take contact.

General manager Rob Hennigan said he wanted to add some shooting to his team, which made plenty of sense based on the Magic ranking 20th in 3-pointers last season — a deep threat would work wonders for Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton, too. Clearly, the Magic envision Mario filling that void.

He looked fine on defense and it’s a little surprising to see he’s almost ready to contribute right off the bat. On the other hand, he’s in a bad spot for minutes. The Magic brought back Tobias Harris and Aaron Gordon looked wonderful in Orlando this month. For now, I wouldn’t target him in re-draft fantasy leagues, but wouldn’t mind grabbing him a little earlier in Dynasty leagues. He could wind up being a solid free throw shooter with a higher volume than many other 3-point shooters.

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