Offseason Low Down: Seahawks Fantasy Preview

Seahawks Year in Review

2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 32nd (454)
2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 2nd (525)
2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 14th (1,021)
2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 6th (5.9)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Russell Wilson
RB: Marshawn Lynch
WR: Doug Baldwin
WR: Jermaine Kearse
TE: Jimmy Graham
TE: Luke Willson
LT: Russell Okung
LG: Alvin Bailey
C: Lemuel Jeanpierre
RG: J.R. Sweezy
RT: Justin Britt

Passing Game Outlook

In chronological order, these are Russell Wilson‘s fantasy quarterback finishes since entering the NFL: 9, 8, 3. Wilson ranked third in scoring last season despite ranking 16th in passing TDs (20), hinting at lots of room for growth in that statistic, particularly with the addition of Jimmy Graham. (Wilson threw 26 touchdown passes in each of his first two seasons.) While Seattle has been and will very likely remain a run-first team, Wilson’s pass attempts have trended upward annually, increasing from 393 as a rookie to 407 as a sophomore to 452 last year. Wilson’s 2014 rushing numbers (118-849-6) may seem primed for regression, but Graham’s double- and even triple-team-commanding presence in the red zone could lead to increased rushing-touchdown opportunities. Although I have Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers in a clear tier above, I’m not setting a ceiling on Wilson’s 2015 fantasy production. I think he offers monster upside and am willing to draft him in rounds five and six, ahead of Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Drew Brees. For what it’s worth, this will be 26-year-old Wilson’s contract season.

Initially miscast on the perimeter in Golden Tate‘s vacated X-receiver role, Doug Baldwin was an early-season fantasy non-factor in 2014. His season turned around on October 18, when the Seahawks traded Percy Harvin and reinserted Baldwin at slot receiver. Baldwin’s 16-game pace from that point on was 73-928-5, with a 10-147-2 line in three playoff games. Baldwin is a quick-footed, slippery inside receiver with 4.48 speed, but he is better cast in a complementary role as opposed to operating as Seattle’s top pass catcher. The Seahawks agree, trading for Jimmy Graham to serve as their new alpha receiver. Baldwin’s role is stable in the slot, even if his touchdown upside is capped by the presences of Graham and Marshawn Lynch. Baldwin is best viewed as a low-ceiling WR4. I do like him as a 13th- or 14th-round pick in best ball.

Jermaine Kearse and Chris Matthews will compete for the Seahawks’ “big receiver” job opposite Baldwin in two-wide sets. Kearse was right there with Riley Cooper as one of the worst starting wideouts in the NFL last season, consistently failing to separate from man coverage and ranking 98th among 110 qualified receivers in PFF’s blocking charts. Still, Kearse is the favorite to keep the job over Matthews, a former CFL player who almost-literally came out of nowhere to post a 4-109-1 receiving line in the Super Bowl, despite playing only 17 snaps. Matthews made four appearances in the 2014 regular season, never playing more than eight downs on offense. With rookie Tyler Lockett and holdover Kevin Norwood also competing for playing time at No. 2 receiver, a committee approach is possible. This is a situation to avoid in fantasy football.

Third-round pick Tyler Lockett has been dismissed in some circles as an unlikely year-one offensive contributor, perhaps on the basis that he’s likely ticketed for punt and kickoff return duties as a rookie. Not so fast. Seattle was infatuated with Lockett in the draft, surrendering pick Nos. 95, 112, 167, and 181 to select him at No. 69. Lockett is 5-foot-10, 182, but wide receiver size deficiencies haven’t discouraged the Seahawks in the past. At OTAs and minicamp, Lockett turned heads with his quick-twitch route running and separation skills. The all-time leading receiver at Kansas State, Lockett is an underrated Dynasty asset who could make some re-draft noise later in the year. Long term, I think he has a chance to upgrade on Doug Baldwin.

Acquired from New Orleans in exchange for C Max Unger and the 31st overall pick (Clemson LB Stephone Anthony), Jimmy Graham goes from an offense that last year ranked No. 2 in the NFL in pass attempts to a Seahawks club that finished dead last. Graham caught 85-plus passes in each of the last four years. I think he will struggle to hit 75 in Seattle. I have Graham ranked safely as this year’s No. 2 fantasy tight end, but the gap between him and Rob Gronkowski has widened. Graham should still threaten for double-digit touchdowns in a highly efficient offense where he will tower above his target competition in both the open field and scoring position. Graham is a reasonable target in the middle to late third round. His current re-draft ADP is 3.05.

Running Game Outlook

Marshawn Lynch entered 2014 widely believed to be playing his final season in Seattle. Instead, he re-proved himself indispensable, scoring a career-high 17 touchdowns while spiking his per-touch efficiency stats across the board. Even as Seattle’s passing game endured ups and downs, Lynch’s intense, violent running kept the offense afloat. Watch his film: Lynch literally put the Seahawks on his back at several points in the season. Lynch is 29 years old, but there have been zero signs of slowdown. Although the addition of Jimmy Graham may cost Lynch a few TDs, it will also make the offense better. In a run-first system where Russell Wilson‘s dual threat manufactures running lanes, Lynch has piled up 310-plus touches in four straight years. I like his chances of handling 300 more this season and have Lynch ranked as a top-five fantasy back.

Occasional third-down back Robert Turbin underwent a significant offseason hip procedure, and some beat writers have questioned his availability for Week 1. Although tremendously physically gifted, 2013 second-round pick Christine Michael has failed to earn a role in Seattle’s offense through two seasons, and was at one point this summer even rumored to be on the roster bubble. I’m not buying Michael getting cut, especially with Turbin’s health status in doubt. C-Mike figures to return as depth who could become a fantasy factor if something goes wrong with Lynch. A deep sleeper to watch is undrafted rookie Thomas Rawls, an Ahmad Bradshaw clone who generated a ton of hype at OTAs and minicamp. Rawls is probably still more of a Dynasty stash with Turbin entering a contract year and Lynch annually pondering retirement. Ultimately, it appears Lynch may enter 2015 without a clear fantasy handcuff.

Vegas Win Total

Seattle’s Vegas Win Total is 11 games, tied with Green Bay for highest in the NFL with Denver, Indianapolis, and New England all tied for third at 10.5. The Seahawks’ win totals are 11-5, 13-3, and 12-4 the past three seasons. As mentioned previously in these preview pieces, probably the biggest concern we face when taking the over on teams with especially high win totals is the possibility of the quarterback getting hurt. I think the Seahawks would at best be a 9-10 win team with Tarvaris Jackson at the helm. At the same time, the Seahawks play in a division where the 49ers and Cardinals are both likely to be worse than they were last season, and St. Louis is an unimposing threat. Seattle’s non-division schedule of the NFC North, AFC North, Carolina, and Dallas is difficult, but far from insurmountable. It really wouldn’t surprise me if the Seahawks ran the table in the NFC West. I think they’ll finish at 12 or 13 victories this season.

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