Offseason Low Down: Chargers Fantasy Preview

Chargers Year in Review

2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 14th (574)
2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 23rd (398)
2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 20th (1,009)
2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 14th (5.4)

Check out the team-by-team fantasy preview schedule.

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Philip Rivers
RB: Melvin Gordon
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Malcom Floyd
WR: Stevie Johnson
TE: Antonio Gates
LT: King Dunlap
LG: Orlando Franklin
C: Chris Watt
RG: D.J. Fluker
RT: Joseph Barksdale

Passing Game Outlook

Philip Rivers was arguably the NFL’s hottest quarterback through the first eight games of 2014, posting a 20:5 TD-to-INT ratio with a 68.3% completion rate and 8.17 YPA. San Diego’s season took an immediate turn for the worse in a Week 9 37-0 blowout loss to Miami. Weeks later, it was revealed Rivers was playing through a “very severe rib injury,” as described by teammate Antonio Gates, in addition to a bulging disk in his back, as reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Rivers managed an 11:13 TD-to-INT ratio and 6.93 YPA in the season’s second half. Rivers’ back healed with rest, not requiring offseason surgery. The Bolts kept Rivers amid pre-draft trade rumors, and he will play out 2015 in the final year of his contract. Gates’ four-game suspension stings, but does open opportunity for athletic marvel Ladarius Green, and Stevie Johnson has the talent to be an upgrade on outgoing slot receiver Eddie Royal. San Diego invested heavily in its offensive line, while 23-year-old Keenan Allen is a solid bet to bounce back from his sophomore slump. Rivers has finished as a top-12 QB in six of his last seven seasons and currently sports a 10th- to 11th-round ADP. He’s one of my favorite late-round QB targets.

One of fantasy’s biggest 2014 disappointments, Keenan Allen finished his second NFL season as the WR48 on 121 targets after a WR17 campaign on 105 rookie-year targets. Reportedly battling nagging injuries amid whispers of poor conditioning, Allen’s run after catch per reception dipped from top 12 in 2013 to 67th in Pro Football Focus’ 2014 charts. Yet the biggest culprits in Allen’s inefficiency were Antonio Gates‘ unlikely 12 touchdowns — his most since 2004 — and the healthy return of Malcom Floyd, who only played in two games during Allen’s rookie year. Now, 35-year-old Gates will open the season on a four-game suspension, while Floyd turns 34 soon and plans to retire after 2015. Eddie Royal is gone, but was replaced by Stevie Johnson. Still only 23 years old, Allen’s target total should stay steady or increase, while his efficiency is a virtual lock to improve. Even if Allen isn’t the future superstar he looked to be as a rookie, I like his chances of returning value as a mid-range to low-end WR2 pick.

Going on age 34 and entering his 12th — and what he claims will be his final — NFL campaign, Malcom Floyd will fill the high-volatility deep threat role he always has in San Diego, averaging 17.1 yards per career catch but never securing more than 56 passes in a season. Last year was one of Floyd’s best, recording a 52-856-6 line on 92 targets. At 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, Floyd is a low-volume vertical stretcher whose value has always been greater in real life than fantasy. He has never finished inside the top-30 fantasy wideouts. I do like Floyd as an especially late-round pick in best-ball leagues; he possesses some big-play ability and over the course of the season will likely turn in a handful of valuable weeks. Those weeks are very difficult to predict, however, rendering Floyd nothing more than a desperate crapshoot in re-draft leagues.

FanDuel strategically released its Week 1 pricing on Tuesday. Even at this early stage, I think it’s fair to say Stevie Johnson will be in a ton of my lineups versus Detroit at his near-minimum ($4,700) cost. Johnson stands to benefit from Antonio Gates‘ four-game absence, while from a skill standpoint Johnson is an upgrade on outgoing slot receiver Eddie Royal, who piled up 91 targets last year, posting a 62-778-7 line. Johnson is a forgotten man in the fantasy community after a lost season in San Francisco. His ADP is in the 14th round, and I wouldn’t entirely rule out the possibility of Johnson leading San Diego in 2015 receiving. While fantasy owners may not (yet) be aware of Johnson’s value, the Chargers certainly are. Beating out the Patriots in free agency, the Bolts signed Johnson to a three-year, $10.5 million contract with another $1.5 million in incentives. Johnson quickly developed a “good rapport” with Philip Rivers at spring practices, and should open the season playing 80% or more of the Chargers’ offensive snaps.

Antonio Gates‘ 2014 renaissance year came on the strength of 12 TDs, tying Julius Thomas and Rob Gronkowski for most among tight ends. They were a high for Gates since 2004, his second NFL season. Touchdown regression was coming even before Gates was hit with a four-game ban for performance-enhancing substances. I had Gates as a top-eight fantasy tight end pre-suspension, but have since downgraded him to TE12. Gates still makes sense as a later-round TE2/3 best-ball target, but whether he’s worth selecting in re-draft leagues is open to debate. Particularly in shallower-bench leagues, there’s a realistic chance fantasy owners will end up dropping Gates during his four weeks off. There is also a possibility 35-year-old Gates’ role is diminished on return, depending upon the play of Ladarius Green in the first month.

Long a favorite fantasy “sleeper” for his size (6’6/238), speed (4.56), and efficiency (40-658-3 on 59 career targets), Ladarius Green‘s 2014 usage nevertheless diminished following a promising 2013. As the Chargers leaned on three-receiver formations rather than two tight ends, Green’s snaps dipped from 450 to 296, and he went scoreless on 25 targets. In both 2013 and 2014, Green played more downs as a blocker than route runner. Now entering the final season on his rookie deal, 25-year-old Green has a huge early-season opportunity following Antonio Gates‘ four-game ban. Green should be a near-full-time player against the Lions (Week 1), Bengals (Week 2), Vikings (Week 3), and Browns (Week 4). How Green fares in that first month figures to play a role in his utilization the rest of the way. I’m absolutely intrigued by Green, but my best guess is he proves somewhat useful in those first four weeks, then becomes a fantasy non-factor when Gates returns. The fact that the Chargers have never prioritized making Green an integral part of their passing game fuels my skepticism, even in that four-game window.

Running Game Outlook

Chargers first-round pick Melvin Gordon succeeded Montee Ball as the bellcow back at Wisconsin, parlaying 631 career carries into 4,915 yards (7.79 YPC) and 45 touchdowns. On the flipside, he caught only 22 passes and was a sub-par pass blocker on college tape. “MG3” ran 4.52 at the Combine with a 35-inch vertical and explosive 10-foot-6 broad jump. Gordon has elite burst, but was stuffed for no yardage or a loss on nearly 20 percent of his college runs. Gordon also fumbled once every 54.4 touches, the second highest fumble rate in the 2015 draft class. Still an exciting talent, Gordon projects best as a two-down runner with big-play ability. The Chargers demonstrated their thirst for Gordon by surrendering a 2015 fourth-round pick and 2016 fifth-rounder in exchange for moving up just two spots in the first round (15 to 17). While Gordon’s PPR value will be limited by his passing-game inexperience and Danny Woodhead‘s presence, Gordon would optimally be used by the Chargers at a clip similar to Ryan Mathews‘ 285-carry 2013 season. Gordon is a solid RB2 pick in the third round of drafts.

Danny Woodhead returns healthy after missing all but three games in 2014 with a fractured fibula and ankle. Combined with Ryan Mathews‘ multitude of injuries, Woodhead’s loss last season forced Branden Oliver and Donald Brown into prominent roles, which eventually caught up to a Chargers offense that couldn’t run the football late in the year. Oliver averaged an anemic 3.64 YPC, while Brown is now on the roster bubble. When healthy, Woodhead is one of the NFL’s premier passing-down backs and fills the “Darren Sproles role” as a trusted, chain-moving checkdown target for Philip Rivers. Woodhead’s passing-down responsibilities should remain intact following the Chargers’ first-round selection of Melvin Gordon, who is a work in progress as both a receiver and pass blocker. Woodhead is just one season removed from finishing as a top-13 PPR back and top-20 scorer even in non-PPR leagues. Although he can’t be expected to produce many week-winning performances, Woodhead’s role should be relatively steady from game to game. I love him as an 11th- or 12th-round fantasy pick in PPR drafts.

Vegas Win Total

The Chargers return a high-powered offense that can both compete in shootouts and play ball-control football. They are deep at the skill positions and vastly improved up front. The defense does not project as a top-ten unit, but was decimated by injuries last year and figures to have better luck staying healthy in 2015. The healthy return of OLB Melvin Ingram and expected ascension of 22-year-old OLB Jerry Attaochu should go a long way toward sparking San Diego’s pass rush. The AFC West isn’t especially imposing this year, though a non-division slate of the NFC North, AFC North, Miami, and Jacksonville is slightly concerning. Still, I view the Chargers as the favorites to finish second to Denver within their division, and like their chances of reeling off 9-10 wins. As San Diego’s Vegas Win Total is 8.5, I’m taking the over on the Bolts this season.

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