Draft Analysis: ADP First Look: Overvalued
Perhaps I’m not looking hard enough, but I haven’t heard or read one negative thing about Odell Beckham Jr. this offseason. That’s scary, especially for a player who has 12 career NFL games under his belt and is dealing with his second hamstring issue in the last year. Unless Beckham slips to the middle of the second round, he won’t be on any of my teams.
For this look at some guys overvalued in terms of Average Draft Position (ADP), I used MyFantasyLeague full-PPR best ball data. These leagues are for real money, so I find them to have the most accurate ADP – even if best ball (draft only leagues) have some different strategy than season long. As we prepare for drafts, understanding what our opponents think of players is almost as important as what we think of players. Wrap your head around ADP.
Here are five guys I think are going too high right now:
1. Odell Beckham, ADP 7.65
I think Odell Beckham’s statistics will regress as an NFL sophomore. Blasphemy, you say! Didn’t I see this catch, and this one, and this record and these?!? I did. That doesn’t mean he’ll do it again.
A) Opportunity: The first two games of Beckham’s NFL career were also the only two games he played with a healthy Victor Cruz. In those, Beckham totaled six catches for 72 yards and one touchdown. It took Cruz’s season-ending patellar tear for the ignition to get lit. By that time, the Giants’ running game was already completely inept thanks to a broken down Rashad Jennings and a painfully overrated Andre Williams. The offense had no choice but to pass, and Eli Manning had no choice but to funnel OBJ with massive volume. Cruz wasn’t there, Rueben Randle was doing his knucklehead things and Williams was a Alfred Morris-esque zero in the pass game.
This year, the offense is stacked. Jennings returns healthy, premier passing back Shane Vereen is on board and Cruz is reportedly on track for Week 1. The offense will still feature Beckham heavily, but the 12.7 targets per game he saw over the final nine weeks isn’t happening again.
B) Sophomore regression: Beckham’s 2014 season was an outlier, even by outlier standards. He became the first wide receiver in NFL history to go over 1,000 yards after missing the first four games of a season. His seven 100-yard games were the most by a rookie since 1960. He had at least 90 yards or a touchdown in each of his final nine games.
We’ve seen standout rookie receivers that blew up in Year 1 and therefore “couldn’t miss” in Year 2 struggle before. Over the 19 seasons between 1995 and 2013, eight rookie wideouts went over 1,000 yards. Only three got to 1,000 yards in their second year: Randy Moss, Marques Colston, A.J. Green. The other five regressed, badly burning owners who bet a premium pick on a progression: Keenan Allen, Michael Clayton, Anquan Boldin, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway.
C) Sample size: It was a perfect storm for Beckham in terms of opportunity, matchups, game flow and efficiency last year. For 12 games, he was the best wide receiver in the league and one of the best we’ve ever seen. But 12 games isn’t enough for me to take him at 7.65, ahead of Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. Especially when we can get Calvin Johnson at 15.8, Jordy Nelson at 18.5 and A.J. Green at 18.9. Are we sure Beckham is truly an all-time great and not just a really good player that ran hot for three months? Can he keep making catches like this and this consistently? I don’t think we have a definitive answer on that yet.
Guys I’d rather have in same range: Julio Jones 10.12, Rob Gronkowski 5.84, Dez Bryant 9.32
Editor’s Note: For rankings, projections, mock drafts, exclusive columns and tons more, check out our constantly updating Draft Guide.
2. Lamar Miller, 29.77
The Dolphins don’t view Lamar Miller as a workhorse back. Even though he was one of the most efficient backs in the league last year (5.08 YPC, eight TDs on 216 carries), they insisted on giving inept backups like Daniel Thomas and Damien Williams carries at the expense of Miller. If Knowshon Moreno had stayed healthy, it would have been even worse for Miller. As it was, he never got 20 carries in a game and only went over 15 carries in 6-of-16 contests.
Now the Dolphins are trying to make Miller into something he’s not, as he’s piled on 15 pounds in an effort to be better between the tackles. That’s not his game and adding weight is often something that hurts a running back far more than helps. Miller is a finesse runner and there’s nothing wrong with that. So not only is he a risk for decreased productivity, but his ceiling is capped. If the Dolphins would only give him 13.5 carries per game last year when there were no quality backups, what will they do with Jay Ajayi lurking? A running back with a ceiling of 240 carries if everything breaks correctly is not something I’m interested in the middle of the third round.
Guys I’d rather have in same range: DeAndre Hopkins 30.4, Brandin Cooks 35.61
3. Kevin White, 75.80
There’s going to be some recency bias with rookie wideouts this year. As mentioned above, just eight rookie wideouts went over 1,000 yards in the 19 seasons between 1995 and 2013. Then last year, an absurd three did it (Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin) and two more came close (Sammy Watkins, Jordan Matthews). Although the NFL is skewed more than ever toward the pass, we need to recognize the 2014 wideout class was the best ever. It doesn’t mean this year’s rookie wideouts will have the same success.
That’s especially true for Kevin White. The Bears don’t have to force-feed White with Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, Eddie Royal and Matt Forte on the roster. That’s fine by new head coach and notorious rookie-hater John Fox, who put Cody Latimer on the field for a grand total of 37 snaps last year. Furthermore, Fox’s Bears will be conservative in an effort to hide a quarterback (Jay Cutler) they tried to trade this offseason.
Guys I’d rather have in same range: Rashad Jennings 79.79, Vincent Jackson 76.22, Drew Brees 79.46, Charles Johnson 80.80
4. Justin Forsett 28.49
I’ve heard a lot of chatter about Adrian Peterson – inarguably one of the most uniquely dominant running backs ever — being 30 years old this season. I haven’t heard much about Justin Forsett turning 30 in October. He also lost the head coach and scheme that finally turned him from career journeyman to feature back, as run-game guru Gary Kubiak left for Denver. So we have an old running back who was pegged as a fringe complementary piece by a fistful of staffs on a team that used a draft pick – albeit a fourth-rounder — on a running back (Buck Allen). New playcaller Marc Trestman has a long history of targeting his backs extremely heavily in the pass game, but there’s reason to believe run-game efficiency will decline without Kubiak. Trestman can only try to mimic the zone-blocking scheme.
Guys I’d rather have in same range: T.Y. Hilton 29.13, Melvin Gordon 32.29
Editor’s Note: The Rotoworld Football team is finally getting in the podcast game. Follow @FanDuelNFLPod on Twitter for more info.
5. Todd Gurley, 41.29
The Rams will not be rushing Todd Gurley back from his November 2014 ACL tear. Not only do they have a lot invested long-term in a kid they took 10th overall, but Tre Mason proved last year he can carry a team’s running game. Even if Gurley is active for Week 1 – far from a certainty as he opens camp on NFI – look for Mason to mix in plenty. The medical advancements in ACL repairs don’t change the fact that Gurley will be 10 months removed from blowing out his knee when the season starts. He’s also running behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines and faces a difficult schedule. Between Weeks 11 and 16, Gurley will play at BAL, at CIN, vs. ARZ, vs. DET, vs. TB and at SEA.
Guys I’d rather have in same range: Jordan Matthews 40.61, Frank Gore 41.46, C.J. Spiller 44.14, Jonathan Stewart 43.70
HONORABLE MENTION
Giovani Bernard, 47.27 — He’s been exposed as a strict complementary back only. Jeremy Hill does just about everything better.
Sammy Watkins, 47.38 — A Greg Roman offense quarterbacked by E.J. Manuel, Tyrod Taylor and/or Matt Cassel.
Michael Floyd, 76.60 — The Cardinals use Floyd as a low-percentage shot guy, as evidenced by his 19.1 Average Depth of Target last year. That won’t change with Larry Fitzgerald getting paid and John Brown getting hyped relentlessly.
Charles Sims, 103.28 — Should be concerned Sims is incapable of being productive running the football. The Bucs are, as evidenced by their recommitment to Doug Martin.
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