Offseason Low Down: Steelers Fantasy Preview

Steelers Year in Review

2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 6th (612)
2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 15th (423)
2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 6th (1,068)
2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 2nd (6.2)

Check out the team-by-team fantasy preview schedule.

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Le’Veon Bell
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: Martavis Bryant
WR: Markus Wheaton
TE: Heath Miller
LT: Kelvin Beachum
LG: Ramon Foster
C: Maurkice Pouncey
RG: David DeCastro
RT: Marcus Gilbert

Passing Game Outlook

Ben Roethlisberger‘s career-best 2014 season has been downplayed by those noting that 37.5% of his touchdown passes came in two midseason games against the Colts and Ravens. Including playoffs, Big Ben still topped 300 yards and/or threw multiple touchdown passes in 12-of-17 games, ranking top five in cumulative quarterback points with ten top-12 scoring weeks. The Steelers’ offense didn’t even hit its stride until Martavis Bryant was inserted into the lineup in Week 7, whereafter Roethlisberger finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 8-of-10 weeks. They are propped up by his two monster games, but Big Ben’s seasonal pace stats following Martavis’ promotion include 5,374.4 yards, 38.4 touchdown passes, and 9.6 interceptions. I have Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson locked in as my top-three fantasy passers for 2015. I’ve waffled between Ben and Peyton Manning at No. 5.

Antonio Brown posted a career year in 2013, or at least I thought. His game again reached new heights last season, leading the NFL in receptions and receiving yards while emerging as the least-coverable wideout in the AFC. Brown’s long speed has been timed at 4.57, but he has video-game quickness and catches everything. Despite ranking second among all wide receivers in 2014 targets (181), Brown tied for 44th in drops (5). Steelers OC Todd Haley feeds Brown the football relentlessly, even in the red zone despite his shortage of size. The last two years under Haley, Brown has ranked fourth and second in the NFL in targets. He is a usage machine with unrivaled consistency. Including playoffs, Brown will enter the 2015 season having caught at least five passes and gained 50 yards in 33 consecutive games.

Let’s ignore Martavis Bryant‘s rookie-year per-target efficiency stats because they’ve been widely dismissed as “unsustainable,” which is obvious and not worth arguing. Bryant is 6-foot-4, 211 with 4.42 speed, a 39-inch vertical, and a 10-foot-4 broad jump. Despite playing only 43.5% of Pittsburgh’s snaps between Weeks 7-17, Bryant produced a 26-549-8 receiving line, which extrapolates to 42-879-13 over 16 games. In Pittsburgh’s playoff loss — without Le’Veon Bell, who is currently suspended for this season’s first three games — Bryant’s snap rate spiked to 81.2% and he saw a season-high nine targets. Bryant’s game closely resembles old Bengals WR Chris Henry‘s as a long, lanky deep threat and potential red-zone dominator who may never become a true high-volume pass catcher. There is a foreseeable scenario where Bryant opens 2015 on expanded usage, emerges as Ben Roethlisberger‘s No. 2 pass option, and parlays the fast start without Le’Veon into a big-time breakout year. There is also a scenario where he remains a low-volume rotational deep threat and is difficult to trust week to week. I’m very intrigued by Bryant, but ultimately on the fence. I have him as a late fifth-round fantasy pick. Unfortunately, Bryant’s re-draft ADP has climbed into round four.

Markus Wheaton was a colossal disappointment in his second NFL season. Essentially handed a starting job in one of the NFL’s top offenses, Wheaton showed a distinct lack of rapport with Ben Roethlisberger while getting severely outplayed by raw fourth-round rookie Martavis Bryant. In standard leagues, Wheaton managed to score fewer fantasy points (78) than he saw targets (83), an incredibly inefficient display. He also finished a lowly 94th among 110 qualified receivers in Pro Football Focus’ yards after catch per reception metric. OC Todd Haley‘s lack of trust in Wheaton was evident in Pittsburgh’s playoff loss to Baltimore, as he played fewer snaps than Bryant. This year, Wheaton is ticketed for slot duties between Bryant and Antonio Brown. I can get on board with Wheaton as an extreme late-round selection in best-ball leagues, but his odds of returning re-draft value are slim to none.

Sammie Coates spent three years at Auburn, parlaying 82 catches into 1,757 yards (21.4 YPR) and 13 TDs. Big (6’1/212), long armed (33 3/8″) and explosive, Coates blew up the Combine with a 4.43 forty, 41-inch vertical, and 10-foot-11 broad jump. In the short term, Coates can be expected to challenge Wheaton for third receiver duties. Coates also has the ideal makeup of a special teams gunner, a role that could earn him a jersey on game days. Long term, Coates’ range of outcomes is wide. A dominant physical talent with poor ball skills, Coates dropped 8-of-75 targets in 2014 and has a floor in the Stephen Hill range. Working in Coates’ favor is a relentless work ethic and ability to outrun coverage. He’s a classic boom-or-bust prospect.

The fact that Heath Miller‘s 2014 counting stats placed him in the top-12 scoring tight ends is more a testament to the weakness of the tight end position in fantasy than an indication Miller might be an underrated asset. Miller was held under 50 yards in nine games and scored only three touchdowns, though he did finish seventh at his position in catches. Miller turns 33 in October. The Steelers had designs on drafting Maxx Williams as Miller’s heir apparent, but were leapfrogged by the division-rival Ravens, who traded up for Williams at the 55th overall pick. Pittsburgh settled for undersized slot-corner type Senquez Golson at No. 56, and later took a fifth-round flyer on Penn State project Jesse James. Miller has job security in an elite passing game, which should keep him on the TE1 fringe. Barring a major surge in his touchdown scoring, however, Miller probably won’t help much in fantasy this season.

Running Game Outlook

From a projection standpoint, the lens through which we might best evaluate Steelers fantasy players is last year’s Weeks 7-17 emergence of Martavis Bryant, which changed the complexion of Pittsburgh’s offense, adding an entirely new dimension to the passing game and opening up the run game. From Week 7 on, Le’Veon Bell averaged an otherworldly 26.8 PPR points, over five points per game more than runner-up Eddie Lacy. In the nine-game Weeks 7-16 fantasy-relevant stretch, Le’Veon finished as a top-two scoring back in five weeks, and as an RB1 seven times. His other two finishes were 14th and 23rd, before Bell had his Week 17 cut short by a knee injury after totaling 100 yards in just over two quarters against the Bengals. Over the course of the season, Bell totaled 100-plus yards and/or scored a touchdown in 15-of-16 games. As Football Guys’ Sigmund Bloom has noted, Le’Veon provides precisely the kind of weekly edge we must seek when making first-round fantasy picks. Bell is currently slated for a three-game suspension, though it may be reduced to one or two, and most fantasy owners should be able to make it through those first three weeks going 2-1 or 1-2 even without their heavy hitter. I don’t have a problem taking Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, or Adrian Peterson ahead of Bell, and in some instances have done it myself this draft season. Ultimately, however, Bell is my preferred 1.01 pick.

It probably isn’t, but I do wonder if Le’Veon Bell‘s three-game ban might be a blessing in disguise. Pittsburgh opens the season at New England, versus San Francisco, and at St. Louis in Weeks 1-3. The Pats and 49ers both played top-nine run defense in 2014, while the Rams ranked 14th and boast arguably the NFC’s premier front seven. In best ball, I can understand drafting DeAngelo Williams late if you go Le’Veon early. Williams should give you a baseline level of production, even if it’s relatively minimal. In re-draft leagues, I’m going to struggle to get behind Williams as more than a desperation play in those first three games. 32 years old, Williams’ YPC average has dipped in three straight seasons and he never offered much in the passing game. Beat writers anticipate Williams sharing time with 2014 third-rounder Dri Archer and perhaps Josh Harris early on, setting DeAngelo’s carry totals at 10-12 per game.

Vegas Win Total

Pittsburgh’s Vegas Win Total is 8.5, tied with Cincinnati for second in the AFC North behind Baltimore (9.5). The Steelers have all the makings of a top-three NFL offense, but are severely deficient on the other side of the ball, where new DC Keith Butler replaces Dick LeBeau to run a defense that did little to upgrade up front this offseason, and will surely get flamed by the pass. While this is a recipe for big fantasy numbers from Pittsburgh’s passing game in particular, it’s an obvious concern for the team’s Win Total. The Steelers’ non-division schedule consists of the NFC West, AFC West, Indianapolis, and New England. My sense is Pittsburgh is being overrated by analysts this offseason. I think the 8.5-game Vegas total is spot on, but would ultimately lean toward guessing the Steelers finish 8-8.

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