Shutdown Countdown: The Odell Beckham Show returns for encore

Shutdown Corner is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per day in reverse order of our initial 2015 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on Aug. 8, the day before the preseason begins with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton.

NO. 22: NEW YORK GIANTS

It’s rare for any non-quarterback, or any rookie, to become the NFL’s hottest star.

New York Giants receiver Odell Beckham was the perfect storm.

We’ve all seen his catch by now, and I won’t waste time describing it. That will be a timeless highlight, just as unbelievable when you see it for the 2,000th time 20 years from now. Throw in the distinct look, the major media market, the social-media friendly highlights of acrobatic catches in warmups and the fact that he won a few million people their fantasy football leagues last season and bam, instant star.

The question, of course, is what can the “Madden” cover boy possibly do for an encore?

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For Beckham to duplicate what he did in the second half of his rookie season he’d have to be the best receiver in the NFL. Make that, he’d have to be the best receiver in NFL history. In New York’s final nine games, Beckham had 81 catches, 1,199 yards and nine touchdowns. That’s a 16-game pace of 144 catches, 2,132 yards and 16 touchdowns. No receiver in NFL history has had more than 143 catches or 1,964 yards in a season. So let’s assume there’s some regression coming.

But the Giants would be pleased with even a reasonable facsimile of Beckham’s rookie season. Not surprisingly, the Giants played pretty well when Beckham started taking off. Late in the season they had a 3-3 stretch in which the three losses were by a combined 10 points (one was blowing a massive lead to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars … oops). That’s not great but it gave the team some optimism into the offseason.

That optimism was muted when defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, by far the team’s best defensive player, suffered hand injuries in a fireworks accident on July 4. ESPN reported that Pierre-Paul had his right index finger amputated. The Giants pulled a long-term offer to Pierre-Paul, who was franchise tagged this offseason. The four other NFL franchise-tagged players signed long-term deals on July 15, and Pierre-Paul had to wonder how much money he cost himself. The GIants have to wonder if he’ll ever be the same player.

Even if Pierre-Paul returns to form and Beckham dominates again, there are questions. The Giants had a poor running game behind a suspect offensive line. The defense was bad, ranking 29th among NFL teams in passing yards allowed per play and dead last in rushing yards allowed per play. There were plenty of reasons this team needed to rally last December just to get to six wins.

But even if the Giants aren’t ready to make it back to the playoffs, they’re must-watch television because of their second-year receiving star.

2014 review in less than 25 words: It was a season of streaks: two losses, three wins, seven losses, three wins and then a Week 17 loss to finish 6-10.

Is the roster better, worse or about the same?: The Giants didn’t buy any big ticket items in free agency, preferring again to buy in bulk — running back Shane Vereen here, defensive end George Selvie there. Losing safety Antrel Rolle in free agency wasn’t ideal, but the Giants didn’t have any crushing departures. The roster is probably about the same.

Best offseason acquisition: Safety Landon Collins wasn’t the Giants’ first draft pick but he was the most important. The Giants’ depth chart at safety was a scary place before the draft, so they traded up to the first pick of the second round to land the versatile safety from Alabama. There’s still almost no depth at the position, but at least the Giants got one sure starter on the back end.

Achilles heel: Health is mostly a luck-based factor for NFL teams, but if that’s the case the Giants have been really, really unlucky. Football Outsiders has a metric for adjusted games lost due to injury, and improbably the Giants have had the most games lost in each of the last two years. They’ve finished 22nd or worse in that stat in each of the last five years. Maybe there’s something amiss in the strength and conditioning department or something is wrong in the athletic training staff, but whatever the cause the Giants have just been bit harder by the injury bug than anyone in recent memory.

Position in flux: The Giants will have to piece together a running game by committee. Rashad Jennings was OK last year, but got only 13 carries after Week 13 due to injuries. Health is a key factor for him at age 30. Vereen was a valuable player catching balls out of the backfield for the New England Patriots, but has never had more than 96 career carries in a season. Andre Williams had seven touchdowns as a rookie last season but a disappointing 3.3-yard average. The Giants tied for 28th in yards per carry last year. They had a league-low four rushes of 20 yards or more, an astonishingly low number. They’re not going to be a much better team this season if the running game doesn’t improve.

Ready to break out: Has receiver Rueben Randle already broken out? He did have 938 yards last year, as the former second-round pick finally translated his talent into some production. Randle was just severely overshadowed by the other former LSU receiver on the roster. The Giants have to be concerned that Victor Cruz won’t be the same player after tearing his patellar tendon last season, which would put Randle into a big role. Randle will play a significant role even if Cruz is back to his usual self.

Stat fact: In 2014 Eli Manning had the second-lowest interception percentage of his career, at 2.3 percent, reached 30 touchdowns for just the second time and had the best completion percentage of his career, at 63.1 percent. That’s not all due to Beckham either. Manning actually had a better rating in September and October, when Beckham was working his way back from a hamstring injury, than in November and December when Beckham was going off. It’s safe to say Manning took well to first-year offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo’s West Coast offensive system in his age-33 season.

Schedule degree of difficulty: The Giants play in the NFC East, which isn’t easy or very hard. They play the AFC East, but they get the New England Patriots at home. There’s no stretch of the schedule that looks particularly daunting. The schedule isn’t really a positive or a negative.

Burning question

This team’s best-case scenario for the 2015 season: If the offensive gains with McAdoo hold in the coordinator’s second season, Pierre-Paul quickly returns to form and the team finally gets some better luck with injuries, the Giants could at least compete for a playoff spot. That’s especially true if Manning and Beckham pick up where they left off from last season.

And here’s the nightmare scenario: The Giants might not have a capable running game, and the defense might simply be bad, especially without Rolle and if Pierre-Paul isn’t the same player (Pierre-Paul is clearly a total unknown and a huge wild card at this point). And if too much is put on Manning’s shoulders, bad things can happen. The Giants were 3-9 at one point last year, and maybe they swim near those waters again.

The crystal ball says: The law of averages says the Giants have to be healthier this season, and that will help. Manning and Beckham will do fine, as will the passing game as a whole. But there are just too many holes to project them to make the playoffs. Another losing season is more likely, and with that will come more questions about coach Tom Coughlin’s job.

Previous previews
32. Tennessee Titans
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
30. Washington Redskins
29. Oakland Raiders
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27. New York Jets
26. Chicago Bears
25. Cleveland Browns
24. Atlanta Falcons
23. San Francisco 49ers