Offseason Beat: Summer Summary: Southwest

It’s not easy to figure out what’s going to translate from summer league to the regular season in the NBA. It’s even trickier to determine on rookies because we haven’t seen play against a team of professional players. Some guys will put up big stats, but they were just a shade better than the competition in summer league and their statistical output could have been due to just pure volume and a couple of unstoppable moves against the inferior players. That lack of versatility in their game usually winds up as their undoing.

On the other hand, it’s not such a tall task to adjust projections on players based on their strengths and weaknesses from last season. A great example last season was Rudy Gobert. During his rookie season, the Frenchman wasn’t nearly as quick in the hips and his instincts on rebounding just weren’t there yet. In Las Vegas last year, Gobert dominated on the glass and showed much better offensive skill in pick-and-roll, which made it clear a big year could be on its way.

A couple of other things to look for is skills with the ball and how much their able to use their athleticism against the opponent leads to success. Some guys can just beat guys off the dribble so easily that it can probably work at the next level. This is more true of the guys with some size rather than guards who are less than 6’2” — I love what 5’11″ Bryce Cotton did at summer league, but he has an uphill climb to have value in the NBA.

In case you haven’t heard, I spent a week in Las Vegas and watched more exhibition basketball than any human being should. I do have to say that it was pretty cool to see the players up close and also to ask them questions after the game. Plus, the atmosphere was crazy with Thomas and Mack Center having close to 10,000 people inside for a handful of games.

With the Orlando Summer League and the one in Utah also going down this month, it left us with an abundance of box scores, plays and skills to analyze. I’ll be breaking down every team with six different parts to this series. It’ll be organized by division with the Southwest kicking it off today.

In addition, each team will also have an impact rating next to it. It’ll be a rating of 1-10 based on how much the Summer League roster will affect the big club in October. If it’s 1-3, that means there’s low expectations from the players on that roster. On the other hand, 8-10 will be for teams with multiple players set to contribute right off the bat. Each section will have the players on the 15-man roster and some others who might find their way there in the near future.

You can follow me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher for NBA stuff all summer long!

Here we go!

Rockets (Impact rating: 2)

Montrezl Harrell, Rockets F – He was the only player on the 15-man roster to get playing time. However, things are not looking good for him to start with the team on the active roster because the Rockets still have Donatas Motiejunas (back), Clint Capela and Terrence Jones — the team likes Capela quite a bit. The Rockets also could use Trevor Ariza at the stretch four like they did last year.

Depth chart problems aside, Harrell looked like a superstar this week. He finished off his event with a massive line of 24 points, 12 rebounds, two blocks and one turnover against Philly on Friday. The 76ers couldn’t keep him out of the paint and that was the story against most teams. In his previous games before the explosion, Harrell averaged 14.0 points, 6.7 boards and 1.0 blocks.

He was kind of a steal at No. 32 in the draft and he made it very clear he has first-round talent. Both Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas have health concerns, so maybe Harrell can get in there with one of those guys missing time. He’s an interesting option in Dynasty leagues.

Glen Rice, Jr. – He is the basketball equivalent of a Quadruple-A player. In other words, he’s an excellent player in the minors, but he just isn’t the kind of guy who can score consistently. Rice needs to work on other areas of his game.

Grizzlies (Impact rating: 3)

The Grizzlies were fantastic in Orlando and went 5-0. However, none of their players are worth drafting in most fantasy leagues.

Jordan Adams, Grizzlies G – He scored 16.0 points per game in Orlando, adding averages of 4.8 boards, 1.0 assists, 2.2 steals and 0.5 treys in 32.5 minutes per game. Jordan wasn’t very efficient in those four wins, though, making just 34.0 percent from the field. He did have a very aggressive style in all of that playing time, which was also the case last season at Summer League.

The Grizzlies dusted off Adams in the last two games last season and he was able to score 19 points in one of those. They didn’t drop anything from their wing/backcourt rotation unless you’re counting Nick Calathes, but Adams only logged 0.7 minutes at point guard on the entire season. Adams really wasn’t successful in getting into the paint last year in the NBA, so he’s likely at least a couple years away from even being valuable in 20-team leagues.

Russ Smith, Grizzlies G – He had one of the better weeks at Orlando for a point guard, averaging 14.8 points, 2.4 boards, 6.2 assists, 3.2 steals and 0.8 treys on 50.0 percent from the field and 81.8 percent from the line. The 6’0” Louisville product also hit a game-winner in double-overtime.

Last summer, Smith fared well with the Pelicans, averaging 16.0 points, 5.0 boards 6.4 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 treys on 43.4 percent from the field. He was able to dominate off the dribble and he also had some success in the D-League last season. In those 25 games, Smith averaged 18.1 points, 4.3 boards, 4.2 assists, 1.9 steals and 1.2 treys.

There are a number of shorter guards out there, but Russ is no Isaiah Thomas. He also didn’t really show anything different compared to last summer. Smith won’t have value this season even though he’s on the roster.

Andrew Harrison, Grizzlies G – The Suns took him with the 44th pick and dealt him to the Grizzlies just moments later. Harrison didn’t have a great run in Orlando based on his averages of 5.4 points, 3.0 assists, 2.0 boards, 0.6 steals and 0.4 treys on 36.4 percent from the field. Harrison has size at 6’6”, but he really wasn’t able to use it.

He wasn’t great at Kentucky either and only made 37.8 percent from the field. Harrison was solid on his 3-pointers at Kentucky, but he only made 28.0 percent of his two-point J’s. He’ll be headed to the D-League.

JaMychal Green, Grizzlies F – The Grizzlies sent him home early this month after he played six minutes in the opener. In the regular season, Green had a nice 10-point, eight-board game on Apr. 13 and maybe he gets minutes if Zach Randolph needs to miss time.

Jarnell Stokes, Grizzlies F – Stokes is the kind of player who should dominate in Summer League. He is a 6’9” bulky power forward without much of a jumper, so he was able to overpower his man in the low post. Stokes averaged 12.0 points, 6.6 boards, 1.2 assists, 0.4 blocks and 2.4 turnovers in 28.0 minutes. He is probably below JaMychal Green at this point.

Spurs (Impact rating: 4)

The Spurs were a lot of fun to watch in Las Vegas. Coach Becky Hammon drew up some really cool plays, including the Spurs’ famous hammer play late in one game and it worked. The Wolves tried to run it on Monday and it did not go well because nobody can run the hammer quite like the Spurs. Anyway, the Spurs had a few players on their roster out there in Vegas and in Utah.

Kyle Anderson, Spurs F – He dominated all week long as a point-forward. As mentioned in the Spurs intro, the Spurs ran the hammer with Anderson as the ball-handler and he ran it to perfection (if you’re not familiar with that play call, you can check it out on YouTube here via SB Nation).

His opponents couldn’t keep him out of the paint with his array of slow-motion moves. Anderson also played solid defense with the Spurs and his length really stood out. He was arguably the best player for his versatility in the game and in the box score, averaging 18.7 points, 6.6 boards, 2.1 dimes, 1.6 steals, 1.1 blocks and 0.4 treys in his first seven games this month. It was almost like he was a LeBron-like guy because he had the ball in his hands so much, especially with the Spurs not having much at the point guard spot with their Summer League team.

Awesome summer league aside, the Spurs are just so loaded right now. Kawhi Leonard is set for another increase in production while the Spurs could look at using Boris Diaw and/or Manu Ginobili at the three given their new depth at power forward. I love Slo Mo’s game, but he’s just in a bad spot for his opportunity right now.

Cady Lalanne, Spurs C – He actually had a good week so far, averaging 7.1 points, 5.1 boards, 1.4 blocks and 0.3 steals in 20.1 minutes. Lalanne only made 37.0 percent from the field, but the Spurs used the 6’9″ forward as a stretch four/five. With the team adding the gigantic Boban Marjanovic, things aren’t looking good. As an aside, here’s a cool story about how Lalanne had to escape Haiti on a fishing boat.

Jonathon Simmons, Spurs G/F – He just picked up a fully guaranteed deal with the Spurs after averaging 15 points per game in the D-League last season. Simmons is a very aggressive, high-flying kind of wing, which is something the Spurs haven’t seen in ages. In his first four summer league games, Simmons averaged 14.5 points, 3.5 boards, 3.8 assists, 2.0 steals and 0.5 treys on 50.0 percent from the field. Nobody in Summer League could really guard him on the perimeter and his numbers would have been even bigger if he could finish a little better around the basket.

We’ll see if the Spurs can keep him for the upcoming season. Regardless, he’s not going to be in the rotation to start the season. He also said after his first game that his mom works for United and wasn’t responsible for United’s issues last week.

Mavericks (Impact rating: 6)

The Mavs were one of the most fun teams to watch and their up-tempo style was on display. They had a couple players who weren’t on the roster and had some potential with Jordan Crawford and Jeremy Tyler. Of course, those two weren’t the main story for them. That honor belongs to…

Justin Anderson, Mavs G -Not many players improved the way Anderson did throughout the week. He showed he can do it all on both ends and his coach at Summer League called him a “two-way player” on Friday. While we thought he would be a plus defender, the offensive repertoire is for real.

The Mavs play today, but Anderson posted averages of 16.4 points, 3.8 boards, 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.4 treys on 39.7 percent from the field in his previous five games. Anderson wasn’t great in his second and third games, but he really tore it up in his two most recent outings.

His offensive numbers at Virginia weren’t great, averaging 12.2 points, 4.0 boards, 1.7 dimes, 0.7 steals and 1.8 treys last season. He did make 45.2 percent from beyond the arc, but that number is a little misleading due to a whopping 91.1 percent of those 3-pointers coming off an assist. As for the other advanced-type stuff, Anderson made 63.1 percent at the rim and was assisted on just 31.0 percent of those, he made just 25.0 percent on his two-point jumpers and was assisted on 27.3 percent of those, and had just 9.8 percent of his points coming off put-backs. All told, those numbers aren’t very good.

Even with the numbers from college not boding well, he was simply just too good to ignore. He was much better off the dribble than anyone could have expected, he had some gorgeous passes to cutters, and he was also very smart on his cutting plays to get easy hoops.

It’s not going to be easy for him to get playing time off the bat. Chandler Parsons (knee) is expected to be ready for camp and the same goes for Wesley Matthews (Achilles). Richard Jefferson is also back, but the Mavs losing Al-Farouq Aminu is a big positive for Anderson’s chances — ALF was playing more small forward late in the season. He’s not worth drafting in leagues with less than 20 people, but the ceiling is very nice in the up-tempo, offensive-friendly scheme of coach Rich Carlisle.

Dwight Powell, Mavs F – He’s another guy who benefits from the stretch four craze. Before today’s game in Vegas, Powell had some fantastic averages of 19.2 points, 9.2 boards, 2.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.2 treys on 45.6 percent from the field. Powell only made 26.8 percent from deep, but he was launching a ton and even took 12 trey attempts in a game on July 12.

He didn’t do much with the Mavs last season, averaging just 3.4 points and 2.0 boards in 24 games. However, Powell was a stud in 12 D-League games, making 59.8 percent from the field for averages of 26.0 points, 9.8 boards, 1.1 steals and 0.9 treys — the treys boost him to an elite 62.4 effective field goal percentage.

The 6”11” forward only has to compete with Charlie Villanueva for the backup power forward role. Powell is a better defender than Charlie V and is likely a better system fit on offense, too. If Dirk Nowitzki needs to miss time, Powell could get on the radar in all leagues.

Jeremy Tyler, Mavs PF/C – The moment Tyler stepped on the court this past week, the first thing to become apparent was the extra muscle on his frame. Tyler could never really post up on guys and he was focused on trying to become a LaMarcus Aldridge-type guy. It didn’t work and the Warriors, Hawks and Knicks never really gave him a second look after adding him. Most recently, the Knicks only have him 9.7 minutes per game back in the 2013-14 season.

Tyler looked great in his first five games in Las Vegas, averaging 12.2 points, 9.0 boards, 1.2 steals and 0.4 blocks on 59.5 percent from the field and 78.6 percent from the line. He was very good on the offensive glass and he’s had three consecutive 15-10 games leading up to today. Tyler has also been involved on pick-and-roll while he also was showing much better footwork in all facets.

As usual, it’s just Summer League for a guy who had a lot of talent out of high school. We’ll see if he gets a partially-guaranteed deal. Keep an eye on him, though.

Jordan Crawford, Mavs G – Steez! He’s out here trying to get on a team, but it hasn’t been going well. Crawford averaged 8.8 points, 3.2 boards, 2.8 assists, 2.4 turnovers and 0.2 treys on 33.3 percent from the field in 24.0 minutes per game in his first five games. Yikes. It’s hard to imagine a team offering him a contract, but maybe he gets a camp invite.

Pelicans (Impact rating: 2)

The Pelicans didn’t have a strong offseason as far as players go, except if you want to say re-signing Anthony Davis counts. However, things are looking good based on Summer League and also bringing in Alvin Gentry will be huge. They should have a much more friendly fantasy system.

Seth Curry, Pelicans G – The Pelicans literally had zero guys from their 15-man roster, but maybe that will change because Seth went in Stephen mode this week. In his first four games of the event, Seth averaged an event-high 25.2 points, 4.2 boards, 2.2 dimes, 3.5 steals and 1.3 treys on 48.7 percent from the field and 87.0 percent from the line. The Pelicans are still alive and will face the Warriors on Saturday.

As for what we’ve seen before the Alvin Gentry Bowl, Curry was the best shooting guard in the entire event. The Pelicans played him off the ball almost exclusively after teams like the Suns, Grizzlies and Cavs tried to use him on the ball as a point guard more. The Pelicans used a lot of off-ball screens a lot like how the Warriors did for Stephen Curry, so maybe Gentry is already having an impact in Las Vegas — he was there this week, too.

There is some talk that the Pelicans are going to offer Seth a guaranteed deal, so maybe he can get on the roster. Curry is obviously going to need to keep the foot on the gas in preseason. For now, he’s only worth a look in like 24-team leagues.

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