The Stew’s midseason look at MLB awards: Cy Young candidates

Editor’s note: This week The Stew is examining candidates for MLB’s three major awards. Next up: Cy Young

There is no doubt that we are currently living in a era where pitching rules. Offensive numbers have declined steeply from what we now refer to as the “steroid era,” and that has allowed pitchers to thrive.

There are a number of reasons why this has happened. Some point to MLB’s strict drug testing policy as a reason for pitching dominance, others point to more specialized bullpens and the fact that pitchers are throwing harder than ever.

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As with most things, it’s probably a mixture of all of the above.

Because of that, you just can’t look at this list as a comprehensive view of the Cy Young Award at the halfway point. We no longer live in a time where there are only four legitimate candidates for the award.

There are probably at least 10 guys in each league that actually have a shot at winning the Cy Young right now. That speaks to just how crazy-bananas pitching has been lately. So, apologies to the many contenders that were left out of this piece.

Now, let’s get to the actual award races:

NATIONAL LEAGUE
The Frontrunner: Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals)
At this point, it has to be Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer. He checks every box needed in order to win a Cy Young award. His numbers are insane, he’s pitching for one of the best teams in the game and he’s already tossed a couple signature starts this year (the one-hitter followed by the no-hitter). Though it seems like Scherzer has easily been the best pitcher in the game this season, he doesn’t have a large margin for error. A second-half slump could result in him losing out on the award, but that speaks more to the strength of the other candidates, and less about Scherzer. He’s the pick right now, and we feel pretty good about it.

In the conversation: Zack Greinke (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Lost in Scherzer’s dominance is the fact that Greinke currently has a 1.39 ERA. If Greinke were to finish the year with that ERA, it would be the lowest since Bob Gibson’s 1.12 ERA in 1968. So, yeah, Greinke has been pretty excellent. He probably won’t be able to keep this up, though, mainly because that’s nearly impossible. It’s worth noting that his strikeout rate is actually down from last season, and his BABIP is just .233. That suggests some regression, but, again, you should expect that when a guy has a 1.39 ERA. Greinke ranks fourth in NL pitcher WAR, but voters are going to have a real hard time overlooking the guy if his ERA remains below 2.00 at the end of the season.

The Question Mark: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Saying Clayton Kershaw is a “question mark” for the Cy Young award is probably among the dumbest things we’ve written on this website. Despite the fact that he’s been tremendous, there’s still a stigma that he’s having a down season. People also can’t seem to get over his 6-6 record, which is silly. We have better ways of evaluating pitchers now. Here’s what we can say: Kershaw is currently posting a career-high 32.7 percent strikeout rate and virtually all of his other numbers are the same. We know his pedigree, so no one should be surprised if he goes on some crazy streak in the second half and winds up with his usual amount of wins and ERA. He’s Clayton “freaking” Kershaw!

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The Dark Horse: Jake Arrieta (Chicago Cubs)
Jake Arrieta’s placement as the dark horse is mainly due to him having less name recognition as the other three guys listed here. If you go strictly by the numbers, he absolutely belongs in the conversation. Arrieta has basically replicated his success from last season. The strikeout rate is a little lower, but he’s made up for that by giving up fewer walks. Nearly everything else is the same, including his strong 2.66 ERA. There is some question as to whether he’ll accumulate enough innings to receive votes. Arrieta tossed just 156 2/3 innings last year. He’s not exactly young, so the Cubs might be willing to push him over 200 if they remain in the playoff race. If he can post a similar inning total as the guys above him, he should receive some votes at the end of the year.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
The Frontrunner: Chris Sale (Chicago White Sox)
Due to a leg injury to start the year, Sale trails some of the other AL pitchers in innings. When he’s on the mound, though, you can’t argue with his numbers. Sale’s 33.5 percent strikeout rate and 4.9 percent walk rate are currently career-bests since he became a starter. The White Sox are awful, but he’s still managed a solid 8-4 record, if that’s the type of thing you still care about. In Sale’s case, maybe you should. His team might be the only thing holding him back from claiming the award at the end of the season. Assuming he can get his innings to a reasonable level, the other stats suggest he’s been the best pitcher in the AL thus far.

In the conversation: Dallas Keuchel (Houston Astros)
If Dallas Keuchel keeps pitching like this, we’re going to see whether the voters still prefer traditional numbers to advanced statistics. Sale is better than Keuchel in nearly every advanced stat, but Keuchel plays for a possible playoff team, and already has more wins. We’re not trying to take anything away from Keuchel here, by the way, he’s been fantastic. His style just doesn’t lead to a ton of strikeouts, and that’s fine. Posting a 64.1 percent ground ball rate is extremely impressive. Since he plays on a winning club, and has performed well, Keuchel is going to be the guy the traditionalists support at the end of the year. Will that be enough?

The Question Mark: Corey Kluber (Cleveland Indians)
There are so many signs that indicate Kluber’s current 3.38 ERA is way too high. His strikeout rate and walk rate are both slightly better than they were last year, and all his other numbers are identical except his .327 BABIP. That suggest Kluber has been unlucky, and also highlights how awful the Indians defense has been. The team has made strides to shore things up, calling up both Giovanny Urshela and Francisco Lindor, and that should help Kluber lower his ERA. Everything in his profile screams that he’s been just as good this year as he was last year. Once that ERA drops, people are going to take notice again.

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The Dark Horse: Sonny Gray (Oakland Athletics)
It seems weird to call the AL leader in ERA the “dark horse,” but Sonny Gray suffers from some of the same issues as Chris Sale. Mainly, his team could let him down. Gray’s 2.04 ERA is impressive, and he’s certainly shown signs of growth his season. His 22.4 percent strikeout rate is a career-high, and his 6.2 walk rate is a career-low. His 4.8 percent home run rate and .249 BABIP suggests he’s been a little lucky, but he should still stay in the race if regression hits.

PREVIOUSLY: Rookie of the Year candidates | MVP award candidates

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