Shutdown Countdown: Hard to be optimistic about the 49ers

Shutdown Corner is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per day in reverse order of our initial 2015 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on Aug. 8, the day before the preseason begins with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton.

NO. 23: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Jim Harbaugh. Patrick Willis. Chris Borland. Anthony Davis. Justin Smith. Frank Gore. Mike Iupati. Chris Culliver. Perrish Cox. Michael Crabtree.

I’m sure there are examples of teams who have had a worse offseason than the San Francisco 49ers in 2015. But in terms of sheer volume of talent lost, these 49ers have to be in the conversation.

It’s not just the talent on the field they’ll miss. There are a lot of Pro Bowls (and especially in the case of players like Borland and Davis, who retired abruptly in their primes, perhaps many future Pro Bowls) off the roster. But think about the leadership in the locker room that has vanished from San Francisco.

The 49ers were 8-8 last year, and I can’t figure out how they’re going to be any better this season.

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It started with Harbaugh. I still haven’t figured out why the 49ers seemed so eager to push a coach with a 44-19-1 record and five playoff wins out. Maybe Harbaugh really wanted to go too. Maybe he was unbearable to work with (though, plenty of coaches are and not many have a .695 winning percentage). There has been so much said back and forth, and Harbaugh’s interviews are always kind of strange, that it’s hard to tell what the real story is. But he’s at the University of Michigan, which is all that really matters.

Then the players started leaving. You know you’ve lost a lot when Iupati, arguably the best guard in football, rarely gets mentions when wrapping up the 49ers’ offseason. There’s just so many names to go through. I don’t buy that there’s some conspiracy theory with all the defections and retirements. Men don’t leave multi-million dollar jobs because a coach left, or any other reason that has been tossed around. I buy that Willis was breaking down. Borland seemed like he knew what he wanted to do before his rookie season started. Davis had a really bad concussion last year, and said he might return after a year off. I think it was just a crazy run of bad luck.

For all the doom and gloom, it’s not like the cupboard is entirely bare. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick will have to get the arrow on his career pointed back up after a disappointing 2014, and it’s not like we haven’t seen him play really, really well in stretches. It would help if tight end Vernon Davis reappeared. Carlos Hyde seems capable of carrying the running game. Maybe the great NaVorro Bowman returns after losing a season due to a devastating knee injury and reestablishes himself as one of the best linebackers in football. Aldon Smith might be a pass-rushing menace again after being suspended most of last season. Perhaps new coach Jim Tomsula can use all the negativity surrounding the team as a great motivational tool.

The 49ers went to three straight NFC championship games under Harbaugh in large part because they had a really deep roster. They could withstand some hits. But there were just so many hits this offseason. It just feels like the 49ers’ most recent era of success, which started when Harbaugh arrived, has come and gone.

2014 review in less than 25 words: The 49ers were alive at 7-4, and then a four-game winning streak ruined them. They won Harbaugh’s last game to finish 8-8.

Is the roster better, worse or about the same?: Come on.

Best offseason acquisition: It would be easier to feel good about the 49ers if they replaced most of the talent that left with comparable free agents. Instead, they were surprisingly quiet in free agency, unless you still really like defensive lineman Darnell Dockett and running back Reggie Bush. The big ticket item was former Baltimore Ravens receiver Torrey Smith. Smith is a deep threat, which the 49ers have sorely needed the past few years. His 16.9-yard average will pair well with Kaepernick’s big arm and possession receiver Anquan Boldin.

Achilles heel: Cornerback isn’t a strength. Culliver got a four-year, $32 million deal with the Washington Redskins and Cox signed with the Tennessee Titans for three years and $15 million. In steps Tramaine Brock, who barely played last year because of injuries, and Shareece Wright, who didn’t play well with the San Diego Chargers last season and was signed as a free agent. Oft-injured Chris Cook also returns. This position could be an issue.

Position in flux: The offensive line has quickly gone from one of the best in the league to a bit of an issue. That’s what happens when you suddenly lose players like Iupati and Davis. The 49ers are shifting to a zone scheme, and maybe the time is right with some new faces. Left tackle Joe Staley and right guard Alex Boone are still among the best at their positions, but figuring out the other three spots is a priority. The 49ers are considering many combinations as they decide where to best utilize Boone.

Ready to break out: Hyde doesn’t have an easy job, replacing a 49ers legend like Gore. But he’ll be the starter, barring injury, and the 2014 second-round pick looked fine last season, averaging 4 yards on his 83 carries. He’s a load at 235 pounds, and should get plenty of chances to carry the ball. He seems like a good bet for 1,000 yards if he stays healthy.

Stat fact: Kaepernick faded in the final two months of last season. He was fine in September and October, with ratings of 91.2 and 98.2 in those two months. His rating was 78.2 in November and 81.0 in December. He had a completion percentage of 63.8 in the first two months, and that dipped to to 57.4 in the final two months. His yards per attempt, well above 7 yards in September and October, dropped by more than a yard the final two months. Kaepernick wasn’t a terrible quarterback in 2014, and the 49ers can look at his early-season production (he had just one bad game, against Chicago in Week 2) and optimistically project that to a full season in 2015.

Schedule degree of difficulty: The rest of the NFC West is good, and physical. It’s no joke playing six games against Seattle, Arizona and St. Louis. Add in games against the AFC North, and it’ll be a big challenge. A season-opening Monday night game at home against Minnesota will be an interesting measuring stick.

Burning question

This team’s best-case scenario for the 2015 season: The 49ers aren’t far removed from being thisclose to beating the Seahawks in Seattle and going to a second straight Super Bowl. Yes, a lot has changed since that NFC title game at the end of the 2013 season. But a lot of key pieces remain. If the players had tired of Harbaugh and are motivated to show that they can survive without him and the players who departed, and Kaepernick puts it all together, it’s not so crazy to imagine them competing with the Seahawks for the division.

And here’s the nightmare scenario: If the dip from Harbaugh to Tomsula is a big one (and don’t forget most of the assistants changed too), Kaepernick remains a bit of a random quarterback, the defense can’t replace some of the pieces that left and takes a step back against the pass, it could be bad. They could finish last in the NFC West and if the Rams finally turn a corner, it could be by a few games.

The crystal ball says: Go back to that list at the top of this post. No team could seamlessly replace that much talent. And the 49ers weren’t all that great last season. They’re a very hard team to project because so much has changed, but the prediction here is that they finish last in the NFC West.

Previous previews
32. Tennessee Titans
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
30. Washington Redskins
29. Oakland Raiders
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27. New York Jets
26. Chicago Bears
25. Cleveland Browns
24. Atlanta Falcons