Season Preview: Watford Season Preview
Watford could be the most interesting team in the Premier League this season. I don’t mean interesting on the pitch necessarily, although there are some players who could get neutrals and fantasy managers very excited, but for the future of how clubs outside of the financially super-elite compete for the ever-escalating TV rights dollars that go along with securing and maintaining a place in the elite leagues across Europe.
What the Pozzo family have done by adding first Granada (2009) and more recently Watford (2012) to their ownership of Udinese (1986) is create a footballing multi-national that seems to mirror the way that multi-national corporations in other industries compete with local competitors. Companies like Coca-Cola and Procter and Gamble centralize functions like research and development, financial management, and strategy and can afford to invest more in these functions because they are being used to pull in revenue from many more markets than a local company who is trying to pay for those same functions with revenue from only one market. Not to carry the analogy too far but participating in Serie A, La Liga and now the Premier League gives Pozzo Corp gives the combined entity a lot of opportunity to create economies of scale by employing a model that is called “shared services” in corporate speak.
Hopefully that last paragraph didn’t put you to sleep with the MBA jargon because this is important stuff for the future of the business of football. If the Pozzo family can make money by creating a shared scouting department that serves three top flight clubs, a shared transfer deal-making team that serves three top flight clubs, a shared marketing and sponsorship sales team that can leverage the combined reach of three top flight clubs, and attract talent with a model that promises to help maximize their playing opportunity as they develop across 33 starting positions in three top flight leagues each season rather than eleven then they could be on to something. Paying higher wages for a young player coming into the Grenada side can be looked at differently if you know that you can shift that player to the higher revenue Premier League where the salary can be easily absorbed if they perform well at Grenada.
All of this is to say that before Watford kick a single ball in a match that counts this Premier League season, they will be the most interesting long-term storyline going.
On the pitch, there’s plenty of interest as well starting with some interesting hold-overs from the Hornets’ promotion campaign and continuing with some solid acquisitions that might not be capturing headlines but could help create some stability.
It was a historically high goal-scoin ring season at the top of the Championship in 2014-15 with Bournemouth (98), Watford (91) and Norwich (88) all scoring more goals than any team in the division since Newcastle and West Brom were promoted after the 2009-2010 season with 90 and 89 goals respectively. Of the three, Watford’s defense was the worst seeing the Hornets conceding 50 goals but none of the three were far off the totals of fellow newly promoted teams over the past ten years – both the successful ones and the unsuccessful ones when it came to staying up.
The model for all three prolific attacking new arrivals to the Premier League is the Reading squad of 2005-2006 that scored 99 goals in their promotion campaign (albeit allowing almost half as many as Watford did). That Reading team stayed up with a core of rising talent that translated to the Premier League. With three players that scored 15+ goals in the Championship last season, that will be the goal for Watford as well. To emulate the Royals of a decade ago, they will have to solidify at the back and probably add a full-time creator to pull the strings for the goal-scoring talent.
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The Headliners
Troy Deeney – Deeney appears to be the most likely of Watford’s three scorers from last season to be a star at the next level. He has been the subject of transfer rumors despite being promoted with the Hornets based on his 21 goals and 9 assists last season. A year somewhere between that of Danny Ings and Charlie Austin doesn’t seem like a crazy prediction. The only reason to keep your expectations a little in check is that he is 27-years-old and despite three straight seasons of exceptional production in the Championship, no one has broken the bank to bring the forward to the Premier League. He could just be one of those guys who tops out as a very good Championship player.
Matej Vydra – Imagine, if Troy Deeney’s stats were attached to a 23-year-old. Vydra scored 22 goals to go with six assists in the Championship in the 2012-13 season as a 20 and 21-year-old. Last season he scored 16 goals and assisted on five more. The reason that our collective enthusiasm has been dampened is because he had a largely unproductive spell at West Brom in the Premier League during the 2013-14 season where he scored three and assisted on three in seven starts and 16 substitute appearances. That sounds like a lot of matches he participated in but if I were to tell you that his 16 substitute appearances spanned a total of just 196 minutes total then you’d be looking at three goals and three assists in approximately nine Premier League matches. That isn’t setting the world on fire but it isn’t bad for a 21/22-year-old at a mid-table club in the Premier League. The argument could be made that if he were that great he would have earned more time on a team that needed a forward but if you’re looking for a cheap/late round option that NO ONE seems to be talking about then Vydra doesn’t profile too differently to the more-talked-about Deeney and Wilson.
Odion Ighalo – Is he a late bloomer? Is he a Championship-level player who is out of his depth in the top flight? Is he just better suited to English football than Spanish football? Did he just have a hot streak to end all hot streaks at the right time last season? How else to explain a player who scored 20 goals in 22 starts and 13 substitute appearances for Watford last season at 24 and 25-years-old after notching a total of 13G and 3A in 39 starts and 35 substitute appearances in the 2011-12/2012-13/2013-14 seasons combined at Granada. It sure feels like he either found his depth or was the product of a Watford goal-scoring machine. I’d be leery of drafting him or spending any significant money on him in an auction but you have to watch him early to see why Watford received a lucrative offer from a Chinese team to take Ighalo to that country for the upcoming season.
Adlene Guedioura – He has not officially finalized a permanent move from Crystal Palace to Watford as has been long rumored but there is some hope of upside if that does happen in some fantasy formats. The Algerian international didn’t play a ton for Watford last season (13 starts and 4 substitute appearances) but he was productive in his time with 3 goals and 4 assists. He takes some set pieces which is always nice on a high scoring team.
Almen Abdi – I’m generally suspicious of players in their late-20s moving up to the Premier League. Abdi showed some attacking acumen with nine goals in the Championship last season but it’s probably too much to expect that he’s going to repeat that or even come close in the Premier League. Again, middle aged players advancing to the top flight for the first time should be viewed with extreme caution. Rickie Lamberts don’t come around very often, that’s why it was such an amazing story.
Building from the Back
One of the issues that many newly promoted sides face is that they just aren’t ready to defend at the Premier League level. Furthermore, they frequently choose to splash the cash on attackers rather than solidity in the back. Burnley took a defense-first approach last season but didn’t have enough going forward. So far this summer, the Hornets seem to be learning from these trends and are supplementing their excellent-in-the-Championship attack with some defensive reinforcements who at least have a chance.
Etienne Capoue – Once linked with Arsenal, the France international spent most of his time at Spurs on the bench or injured. Once Mauricio Pochettino arrived last summer, he seemed to favor other options in both central defense and holding midfield. Capoue may not be a superstar but he seems likely to be a very useful piece playing a full time role at Watford. He probably isn’t a fantasy starter unless it turns out he is a tackling/pass intercepting machine but he’s part of a summer buying program that gives you hope that the Hornets could throw together some clean sheets.
Sebastian Prodl – Another very solid-seeming defensive acquisition for a reasonable transfer fee. A Bundesliga veteran who can play at both center back, his preferred position, and right back, Prodl should provide a calming influence used to playing in the top flight (albeit in Germany).
Jose Holebas – An arrival from Italy that doesn’t come from Pozzo’s Udinese, the 31-year-old arrival from Roma plays at left back and is another solid addition that should give Hornets supporters some hope that they will field a defense that can keep the ball out of the net in the Premier League.
Valon Behrami – A fourth defensive-minded summer acquisition in front of former Spurs goalkeeper Heurelho Gomes, Behrami can play at both center back and as a holding midfielder. A veteran of both the Premier League (2008-2011 with West Ham), Serie A (Fiorentina and Napoli) and the Bundesliga (Hamburg) he should provide another solid presence at the back.
Juan Carlos Paredes – Perhaps the only holdover likely to start regularly at the back for the Hornets, Paredes could also be a very interesting fantasy prospect. He plays more like a right wing back than a pure right back meaning that there could be some solid attacking numbers along with whatever defensive statistics he contributes. The big question is whether he can play enough defense to justify the inclusion of his attacking capabilities. The hope may be that the rest of the acquisitions can hold things down at the back enough to let Paredes wander a little bit.
Allan Nyom – Almost as soon as I wrote that Paredes might be the only holdover to start for the Hornets, they signed/shifted Nyom from Udinese. Nyom has been on the books of Pozzo Corp since 2009 but never actually played for Udinese. He has been with Granada for all of that time helping them get promoted. He will at least give Quique Flores two solid options at right back but won’t help fantasy managers decide who is likely to start.
If Watford have one more acquisition in their bag of tricks before the season starts they could certainly use an established creator somewhere in midfield. That player could come in the middle or from a wing but someone to orchestrate an attack after getting the ball from the defense seems to be their big hole right now. Given the acquisitions, they should have quality depth with players like former FA Cup hero Ben Watson who will battle Behrami and Capoue for time at the base of the midfield. They also have their entire returning defense who look like they could be playing reserve roles this season with the arrival of more experienced hands in Prodl, Holebas, et al.
If you’re looking for a club with a solid chance to stay up and provide some fantasy fireworks while doing so, Watford look like they have a solid shot. They are well run, they benefit from a great scouting network and inexpensive options from Pozzo’s other clubs, and they seem to be building some solidity to the group that won them promotion. Deeney, Vydra, and Paredes seem the most likely to be worth considering for fantasy purposes early but if the defense is solid then that group could expand.
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