Here are some MLB predictions we regret and some we still feel good about
We’re not too proud to admit that sometimes — OK, oftentimes — our preseason predictions don’t come to fruition. We’re not alone in this. Baseball is tough to predict. Just when you think you know the one team that surely won’t contend in the AL Central, the Minnesota Twins are in second place at the All-Star break.
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In an effort to hold ourselves accountable, we at The Stew are using the All-Star break to look back at some of our preseason predictions and see where totally we whiffed and where we’re feeling good. Looking back at your preseason predictions in July is kind of like looking back at your junior high yearbook. It’s amusing, but also frightening.
So Chris Cwik, Mike Oz and Mark Townsend are asking for your mercy as we reveal our biggest goofs. We’ll also pick three predictions we still like. But we don’t need mercy there — some crossed fingers, maybe.
PREDICTIONS I TOTALLY REGRET
1. Robinson Cano as AL MVP: Well, this one is looking like a major misstep. Prior to the start of the year, the Mariners looked like the favorite in the AL West, and Robinson Cano would help them get there. Neither appears to be true now. While Cano has looked better at the plate lately, he’s still hitting just .251/.290/.370 over 369 plate appearances. Cano would have to be otherworldly over the second half in order to even come close to receiving one MVP vote.
2. Royals finishing fourth: Coming into the year, it was easy to expect some regression from the Royals. The team lost ace James Shields, and didn’t make any major free-agent signings. Apparently, they didn’t need to. The offensive breakouts from last season have carried over. Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer appear to be the real deal, while Mike Moustakas and Kendrys Morales have been pleasant surprises. While the pitching hasn’t been great, the team has endured without Shields. The bullpen and defense have maintained last year’s excellence, making us all look like fools.
3. Red Sox make the playoffs: The Red Sox are only 6.5 games out of first in the tight AL East, but this doesn’t seem likely. Father Time may have finally caught up to David Ortiz, and Pablo Sandoval’s numbers continue to decline. The rotation is an absolute mess. Clay Buchholz has been good, and Eduardo Rodriguez has performed better than expected, but that’s about it. Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly have been disastrous thus far. There’s no dominant team in the East this season, but it’s tough to see Boston emerging with their current issues.
PREDICTIONS I STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
1. Carlos Martinez as breakout pitcher: This one has worked out well. Even without Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals have posted the best record in baseball. One of the biggest reasons for that is the emergence of Carlos Martinez. Martinez almost didn’t start the season in the rotation, but injuries forced the Cardinals to throw him in there. Over 107 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 2.52 ERA, and a 3.47 FIP. He’s struck out over a batter per inning all while keeping his walk rate at an acceptable level. It feels like we’ve been waiting on Martinez for years, but he’s still just 23. This is the start of an excellent, young career.
2. Cleveland makes the playoffs: Things look bleak, but I’m sticking with the Indians. The team still boasts one of the best rotations in the game. Corey Kluber has been his usual self, Carlos Carrasco has proven last year wasn’t a fluke and both Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar have taken big steps forward. Defense was an issue early in the year, but the additions of Giovanny Urshela and Francisco Lindor should shore up the left side of the infield. The Indians have been known to go on second-half surges in recent years, and I’m betting they can do it again.
3. Rick Porcello biggest letdown: Though I expected Rick Porcello could struggle with his new team, I never anticipated this. Porcello has been awful, posting a 5.90 ERA through 100 2/3 innings. His 4.47 FIP isn’t much better, and is his worst figure in the category since his rookie season. Porcello’s strikeout rate isn’t awful, but he’s been extremely hittable. His BABIP has jumped back to previous levels, and his home run rate is currently the worst of his career. There’s potential for him to get better during the second half, but Porcello’s first season with the Red Sox is probably going to look like a disaster.
PREDICTIONS I TOTALLY REGRET
1. The Royals in fourth place in the AL Central: I’ll own up to this because Royals fans have been reminding me about it for weeks now. Yes, the Royals are a good team. Yes, they’re probably going to the postseason again. Heck, they might even return to the World Series. Do you guys need more validation? Fine. Ned Yost is a genius. Wade Davis should win the Cy Young. Lorenzo Cain is your AL MVP and we should put Salvador Perez on the $20 bill. Happy now?
2. The Mariners in the World Series: Yep, I was one of the people who jumped aboard the Mariners-are-a-sexy-World-Series-pick train and I’m feeling pretty dumb about that one. The Mariners haven’t even come close to reaching their potential. They’re 41-48 at the break, 7.5 games out of first place, which isn’t enough to consider their season over, but it would awfully surprising if they ended up in the World Series.
3. Barry Zito as comeback player of the year: So, about this one, I figured the Oakland Athletics would be in need of some help and a rekindled romance between the A’s and their former Cy Young winner might produce some magic. The A’s have a knack for magic, you know. As for Zito, he’s in Triple-A with a 3.60 ERA, so let’s just forget this prediction ever happened.
PREDICTIONS I STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
1. The Blue Jays winning the AL East: I still believe in Toronto. That offense is stacked and Josh Donaldson has been insanely good. Just go upgrade your pitching, boys, and that weird division could be yours.
2. The Dodgers in the World Series: The Dodgers are a good team that’s been good despite not really playing at full strength. I have to think they’ll hit their stride this season and their performance will match their talent. They’re 51-39 with a 4.5 game lead in the NL West and that’s despite Clayton Kershaw being merely human, Yasiel Puig being hurt for a while and losing two starters for the season.
3. The Cubs make the playoffs: I still want to believe in you too, Cubbies. If the playoffs started right now, Joe Maddon’s bunch (47-40) would be in as the second wild card. The Mets and Giants, however, are right there. The Cubs’ path into the postseason is anything but assured, but if that young roster continues to gel, it could happen.
PREDICTIONS I TOTALLY REGRET
1. Picking Boston to win the American League: The Red Sox aren’t buried to the point where making the postseason and winning the AL aren’t possible. But they simply won’t have enough unless they can bring in a Cole Hamels or another top-notch starter and get Clay Buchholz healthy again. And even then it will be difficult. It’s a tough road ahead.
2. Dalton Pompey as AL Rookie of the Year: The Blue Jays were ready to give Pompey a chance right out of the gate this season. He just wasn’t as ready as we thought. Even if he returns, there’s not enough time to catch guys like Billy Burns and Carlos Correa. But maybe he can make another run next season.
3. Last place Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins: We all missed something with these squads. Both the Astros and Twins have not only been competitive, they are both legitimate playoff contenders in a wide open AL. It’s an instance where you don’t mind being wrong though, because it’s exciting for baseball.
PREDICTIONS I STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
1. Nationals win World Series: Even without getting much from Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals are positioned well for the second half. They’ll likely have to go through the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals just to make the World Series, but with Bryce Harper now playing like the best player in the NL and that pitching staff, they are definitely equipped.
2. Johnny Cueto will be traded: It was 50-50 before the season, but with Cincinnati faltering Cueto is as good as gone. Now it’s a question of where he’ll land, and whether or not he has a long-term future with that team.
3. Brett Anderson as comeback player: The oft-injured lefty has remained healthy this season and flourished with the Dodgers. There’s a little bit of anxiousness that something will go wrong, but his talents haven’t been questioned when healthy. Here’s to another 15 starts.
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Mike Oz is the editor of Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @MikeOz
