Draft Analysis: $100K Champ Draft Strategy
Rotoworld Draft Guide subscriber Oliver Gold took home first place the 2014 online National Fantasy Football Championship, earning a $100,000 grand prize. Oliver is doing a three-part series on re-draft strategy for Rotoworld readers this year. This is Part One. Parts Two and Three will soon be available in the Rotoworld Draft Guide.
After winning last year’s grand prize in the NFFC, more than anything my friends wanted to know if they could borrow money. After that, they asked me to draft their 2015 teams for them. In lieu of helping everyone I know draft their teams — which would no doubt be fun but also might cause my wife to change the locks on our door — I thought I’d put together a few drafting strategies to give everyone my thoughts on how this year’s drafts should go.
I’ve always found articles on draft strategy to be too broad with simple insights like: Know your bye weeks, have a depth chart handy, adapt as you go. Or, too narrow with tips like Grab Jamaal Charles. In these three columns, I’ll give specific draft strategy according to early, middle, and late-round picks.
I’m basing this on a standard NFFC scoring system of 6 points for all touchdowns, 1 point for every 20 passing yards, 1 point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards, and 1 point per reception. Each team starts with 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 Kicker, 1 DST. Unlike the NFFC, this column’s strategy is based on a traditional snake draft, rather than a draft with a third-round reversal.
Lastly, I’ll base who is available on Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP report. If Jamaal Charles is available in the ninth round, take him. But I’m going to assume he’s gone before that. I’m giving player-specific advice for the first eight rounds — starters, not including defense and kickers. This first piece will detail my opinion on the best approach for a later-round pick (Nos. 9-12).
Editor’s Note: For updated rankings, projections, exclusive columns, mock drafts and tons more, check out our Draft Guide!
Round One (1.09 – 1.12)
The guys I’ll consider here are Marshawn Lynch, Odell Beckham, Matt Forte, Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson. I especially like the running back options. The Seahawks are not giving Lynch $12 million this year to watch from the sideline. Pete Carroll hopefully learned his lesson during the Super Bowl. Lynch hasn’t missed a game in three seasons. He’s a perennial 1,200-yard rusher, catches the ball and scores a lot of touchdowns.
If Lynch is gone, I’m taking Forte. He’s been a consistent 1,000-yard rusher for his entire career, only barely missing in 2011 (997 yards), and 2009 (929). Last year, Forte caught more passes than both Dez Bryant and Calvin Johnson. Even with the loss of Brandon Marshall, Forte is part of a decent Bears offense with Jay Cutler, Martellus Bennett and Alshon Jeffery.
Several experts rank LeSean McCoy higher than Forte. McCoy racked up yardage last year with over 1,300 yards rushing, but only got into the end zone five times. McCoy is still only 27, but he’s coming off two 300-plus-carry seasons and was limited by a toe injury for much of 2014. He went six games in a row without a touchdown. I can’t say I have much faith in a Bills offense piloted by E.J. Manuel, Matt Cassel, or Tyrod Taylor. Buffalo ranked 26th last season in yards per game, and I don’t see a big turnaround under Rex Ryan. If Lynch and Forte are off the board at my No. 9-12 pick, I’d be happy to have Beckham or Demaryius late in round one.
Round Two (Nos. 2.01 – 2.04)
I’m not in love with many of the guys going early and toward the middle of round two. I guess that is good news for those who have an earlier-round draft slot this year. (I’ll cover that in article three of this series.)
Rob Gronkowski will open the season without Tom Brady due to a suspension.
Calvin Johnson seems to be on a downward health trajectory.
Arian Foster is an annual health risk. Last year, Foster played 13 games, but was only healthy for ten, and in 2013 he only played in eight. I might risk it if Foster had a strong handcuff, but he has Alfred Blue. Foster is a monster when he plays, but I don’t think the second round is time to roll the dice. I’m looking for as close to a sure thing as I can get.
DeMarco Murray in Philadelphia just doesn’t sit well. I know a lot of experts are very high on him, but I can’t see myself drafting him here. Murray is on a new team with competition for carries and catches out of the backfield. I see a good, but not great season for Murray.
The first guy I’m trying to grab here is Jordy Nelson. Nelson may not repeat his monster 2014, but he has Aaron Rodgers and a great Green Bay offense.
After Nelson, I am not going to get caught up in who I should take. I know the guys who will not be there for my next pick, so here’s who I’m looking at if Jordy is gone: Jeremy Hill, Randall Cobb and Justin Forsett.
Even with a healthy Giovani Bernard back, I love Hill. He was a monster as a rookie, completely outplaying Bernard at every opportunity. There’s no reason to expect anything different this season.
My goal is to come out of the first two rounds with a WR and RB spot filled.
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