Offseason Low Down: Giants Fantasy Preview

Giants Year in Review

2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 9th (607)
2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 10th (449)
2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 4th (1,086)
2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 15th (5.4)

Check out the team-by-team fantasy preview schedule.

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Eli Manning
RB: Rashad Jennings
WR: Odell Beckham
WR: Rueben Randle
WR: Victor Cruz
TE: Larry Donnell
LT: Ereck Flowers
LG: Justin Pugh
C: Weston Richburg
RG: Geoff Schwartz
RT: Marshall Newhouse

Passing Game Outlook

It was fashionable to write off Eli Manning last fall after an ugly camp and preseason as OC Ben McAdoo installed a new offense. Finally grasping the system and getting on a roll later aided by Odell Beckham‘s lethal-if-delayed mammoth rookie season, Eli posted a 27:10 TD-to-INT ratio and averaged 284 passing yards over New York’s final 14 games. Manning enters year two under McAdoo with an impressive, young supporting cast of Beckham, 22, Rueben Randle, 24, Larry Donnell, 26, and presumably Victor Cruz, 28. The Giants added a new weapon in Shane Vereen, who should be something of a staple in New York’s oft-used no-huddle attack. The Giants finished 2014 No. 4 in total plays, running an up-tempo offense with a ton of statistical volume. Manning’s protection is a concern after LT Will Beatty tore his pectoral in May. Still, the quick-hitting nature of McAdoo’s offense is designed in part to mitigate protection woes by getting the ball out fast. Eli’s current Average Draft Position is the QB12 (ninth round) in season-long re-draft leagues. He usually lasts until the 10th and 11th rounds of best-ball MFL10s. Last year’s overall QB10, I think Manning has a chance to be a top 5-7 fantasy passer this season.

I watched a ton of Odell Beckham at LSU and, during last year’s pre-draft process, compared him to a cross between Antonio Brown and Greg Jennings. As a rookie, Beckham looked more like a player who had fused together the strengths of Brown and DeSean Jackson. The best adjective to describe Beckham would be “uncoverable,” pasting defensive backs with absurd short-area quicks, defeating double teams in the vertical game, and using his shockingly wide catch radius to win contested catches. Taking off when Victor Cruz ruptured his patellar tendon in Week 6, Beckham scored a touchdown and/or topped 90 yards in each of New York’s final ten games en route to NFL Offensive ROY honors. Only 22 years old with just 12 games under his belt, Beckham is already in the first-round fantasy discussion. Beckham has earned his 1.12/2.01 re-draft ADP. Keep an eye on OBJ’s hamstring problems, which cost him the early portion of his rookie season and again sidelined Beckham for all of OTAs and minicamp.

Rueben Randle was a favorite sleeper of yours truly entering 2014. The opportunity portion of Randle’s favorable forecast cooperated, tying for 20th among all wideouts in targets. Randle also set career highs in catches (71) and yards (938). Randle was still a fantasy disappointment, scoring only three touchdowns after hitting pay dirt nine times on his first 60 NFL catches, and saving his two biggest games for Week 16 (6-132-1) — when no one was starting him — and Week 17 (6-158) — a fantasy-irrelevant week. Randle’s inefficiency frustrated, parlaying the 20th-most targets into just the 37th-most fantasy receiver points. Randle’s letdown season has made him a potential value pick for 2015; his new ADP is the WR55 in the middle of round 12. Admittedly, there’s a strong chance I oversold Randle’s fantasy ceiling last year. At the same time, I think he could be useful this season if he resumes scoring TDs. Randle is only 24 years old, 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, and aside from last season has been a reliable touchdown producer dating back to his final year at LSU (eight touchdowns on 53 receptions).

At times seeming uncomfortable in the Giants’ new quick-hitting offense, Victor Cruz was on an underwhelming 62-899-3 receiving pace to open last season before rupturing his right patellar tendon in Week 6. Athletic doctors describe patellar tendon tears as similar to the knee being involved in a car accident; far more severe than torn ACLs and in many cases worse than a torn Achilles’ tendon. As expected, all reports on Cruz’s progress have been upbeat, but we won’t get a bankable handle on Cruz’s recovery until he plays in preseason games, at the soonest. Some recent patellar-tendon-tear patients include Cowboys RB Ryan Williams, Lions DE Jason Jones, Vikings WR Greg Childs, Cowboys CB Morris Claiborne, and Falcons LT Sam Baker. Personally, I’d rather bet against a football player coming off a patellar tendon tear than on a player coming back from this injury, especially at Cruz’s single-digit-round ADP.

Athletically-gifted but football-challenged Adrien Robinson was the supposed front-runner for Giants tight end duties at this time last summer. A special teamer/practice squadder his first three seasons, fourth-year UDFA Larry Donnell emerged as the starter, stunning the football universe with a 27-236-4 receiving line in the first four games. Donnell’s production dropped sharply thereafter, as a healthy Odell Beckham commandeered lead-receiving duties. Donnell’s 16-game pace over the final three months was 51-516-3. Donnell is a 6-foot-6, 268-pound red-zone force, but his dreadful run blocking prevented him from being a full-time player in 2014, and there will be fewer targets to go around with a healthy Beckham and Victor Cruz (knee) on his way back. Donnell does appear to have job security, and will presumably improve in his second full season as a regular on offense. Most likely, Donnell will settle into the “touchdown-dependent” tier of low TE1s/high TE2s. He’s still worth a TE2 pick at his 14th-round ADP.

Running Game Outlook

In season one of a four-year, $10 million deal, Rashad Jennings missed five games and parts of others with a severe MCL sprain and late-season ankle injury. Jennings missed an entire year (2011) due to a knee injury previously in his career, and through six seasons has never played in all 16 games. Combine Jennings’ age (30) with his injury history and the Giants’ signing of Shane Vereen, and Jennings has been written off in many fantasy circles. A back who was going in the third and fourth round last year can now be selected in the sixth through eighth. Despite all the hype Vereen has generated, I think Jennings is the heavy favorite to lead the Giants’ backfield in fantasy points. Jennings is the most complete back on the roster, capable of grinding between the tackles and excelling in the passing game. Jennings’ overall per-carry average (3.83) was unimpressive last year, but he averaged a rock-solid 4.35 in the first five games before injuries struck. Jennings’ all-purpose game stabilizes his value in both real life and fantasy. I like him as an affordable RB2/flex in re-draft leagues, and especially as a mid-round RB4 in best ball.

Beating out the Jets in free agency, the G-Men signed Shane Vereen to a three-year, $12.35 million contract with $5 million guaranteed. Giants beat writers emerged from spring practices convinced Vereen will be more than a passing-down back in New York, and the ensuing buzz spiked his ADP. Vereen is now being taken as the overall RB34 in the seventh round. Vereen is worth targeting as a low-end RB2/flex play in the middle rounds of PPR drafts, but I would avoid him in other scoring formats. Vereen best profiles as a change-of-pace and passing-down back who won’t handle goal-line work with Rashad Jennings (6’1/231) and Andre Williams (5’11/230) in the same backfield. With that said, Vereen is going to play a significant role on the Giants, whose no-huddle and three-receiver-heavy offense suits Vereen’s playing style. Keep in mind this is a team that finished fourth in the league in offensive plays in the first year of OC Ben McAdoo‘s system. There is room for two Giants backs to have meaningful fantasy value.

Andre Williams‘ limitations were exposed as a rookie. Most well-known is Williams’ inherent inability to catch the football; he is a genuinely stone-handed player who posted a bottom-three catch rate (64.3%) among 57 qualified backs in PFF’s 2014 charts. On the bright side, he did pass block well. Williams’ shortcomings as a ball carrier are less discussed, but were very much evident last season. Despite impressive agility as measured by his Combine numbers, Williams is slow, plodding, and stiff behind and near the line of scrimmage. This resulted in extreme inefficiency behind a poor 2014 Giants offensive line, averaging 3.32 YPC with the tendencies of a boom-or-bust runner despite his powerful profile and bellcowish size (5’11/230). On the other hand, Williams can look special and explosive when sprung onto the second level. Ultimately, Williams is a blocking-dependent runner whose 2015 role will be dramatically scaled back barring another injury to Jennings. I’d have a hard time investing a re-draft pick in Williams this year, though he could be a useful in-season waiver-wire pickup.

Vegas Win Total

Coming off a 6-10 season, the Giants’ Vegas Win Total is 8.5. New York’s NFC team endured two jarring offseason blows, losing LT Will Beatty (pectoral) and RE Jason Pierre-Paul (finger amputation) indefinitely. I really like the Giants’ skill-position talent on offense, and believe Eli Manning will have a highly productive year. I think the Giants will struggle to stop opponents on defense, where JPP’s absence for any length of time would be devastating. New York’s pass rush could be near-nonexistent for as long as Pierre-Paul is sidelined, while both safety positions are big question marks. My guess is this Giants team will score a lot of points, but not necessarily win lots of games. I think the roster is middle of the road and New York will finish with 7-9 wins.

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