Fantasy Roundtable: Roundtable: Second-Half MVP
This is the weekly Fantasy Roundtable, where the writers of Rotoworld Baseball let the readers of Rotoworld Baseball in on a quick staff discussion. It’s water cooler talk … that we’ve decided to publish. Look for it every Tuesday.
Drew Silva: Over the last two Fantasy Roundtables, we’ve crowned fantasy MVPs and Cy Young Award winners for the first half of the 2015 season. Let’s shift into prediction mode now in the middle of the All-Star break. Plain and simple here: Who’s going to be the best fantasy hitter in the second half of the 2015?
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Nate Grimm: The smart money answer to this question is always Mike Trout, so with the caveat that it’s probably Mike Trout, I’ll give a nod to the guy who ended the first half on the best hitting streak: Andrew McCutchen. Cutch’s numbers at the break are so good — .295/.392/.500 with 12 homers and 56 RBI — that it’s hard to remember how terrible he was for a month. McCutchen was hitting .185/.280/.293 on May 6, and instead of wondering if he would be a starter in the All-Star Game, people were wondering whether there was something wrong.
Cutch has hit .341 with a 1.024 OPS since that point, effectively ending those questions, and that stretch provides a glimpse of what he’s capable of going forward. Assuming his stolen bases pick up a bit — he’s got just five steals; his lowest single-season total is 18 — McCutchen should continue to make up for lost time and prove why he’s one of the safest players in the fantasy realm.
Ryan Boyer: How about Manny Machado? You could typically nab Machado somewhere around round 7 or 8 in redraft leagues in the spring, and even at that price I must admit that I wasn’t really buying. The hype just hadn’t matched the production pre-2015, at least not offensively, and the knee issues were an obvious concern. Machado has stayed healthy and broken through this season, though, displaying big five-category talent with a .298 average and a 35-homer, 88-RBI, 103-run and 24-stolen base pace. He’s also striking out less and walking more, which is a good sign that the leap he’s taken is sustainable. Machado has been a top-five fantasy hitter so far, and of the big-time first-half performers whose production far exceeded their draft position, I’m probably most confident in his ability to keep it up.
Bill Baer: This is a pretty obvious pick, but I think the best fantasy hitter in the second half will be Paul Goldschmidt. I don’t think he’ll continue to hit .340, but .300-.310 isn’t so wacky considering his career numbers. With A.J. Pollock and David Peralta hitting in front of him, he’ll have plenty of RBI opportunities. He’ll hit another 10-15 home runs. He leads the league in walks and is a monster in leagues that use on-base percentage, and that isn’t something that’s likely to go away overnight. He already has 16 bases; I would not be surprised if he added another 10 on top of that. Mike Trout, Todd Frazier, Manny Machado, and Anthony Rizzo are the only hitters I’d be willing to bet on coming close to matching Goldschmidt’s numbers across all of those categories in the second half of this season.
Matthew Pouliot: Not the best of the best, but I think Jose Abreu has a big second half on the way. He’s actually doing a better job of making contact than he did during his ridiculous rookie season; he’s just hitting the ball on the ground a bit too often. I still think it’s going to come together, and he’ll also get more help from Melky Cabrera and company than he did early on. I certainly wouldn’t take him over Trout or anything, but he might be my pick to lead the AL in homers from here on in.
D.J. Short: I feel like the most likely ones are pretty well covered here. It’s not all that bold to say Trout, Harper, or Goldschmidt, but they sure feel a cut above everyone right now. McCutchen is interesting, though I wonder if the lack of activity on the basepaths is part of managing his knee issue. Putting those options aside, I’ll go with Nolan Arenado, who already has 24 home runs and 70 RBI through 85 games this season. His fly ball rate has had a nice jump from last year, which explains the power surge. However, you might be surprised to learn that he actually has more home runs on the road (15) than he has at home (nine) so far this season. Regardless, it sure helps to play half of your games in Coors Field. There’s not any speed here, but he hits for average and has a decent chance to finish with 40 homers and 120 RBI. Arenado was a popular breakout pick around here in the spring, but he’s set to blow away even the most optimistic expectations.
Drew Silva: I’ll throw one more name into the mix after watching last night’s highly-entertaining Home Run Derby: Joc Pederson. The 23-year-old Dodgers center fielder nearly unseated hometown hero Todd Frazier with 14 final-round shots Monday night in Cincinnati. I’m not saying a Home Run Derby performance is in anyway predictive of anything, but Pederson doesn’t carry himself like a rookie and I think there are going to be many more special nights for him ahead. Heck, he’s already on pace for 36 home runs. And maybe he’ll start showing a little more aggressiveness on the basepaths in the second half. This is a guy that stole 30 bases in 121 games last season at Triple-A Albuquerque.
All that said, if I’m putting up a real guess for the second half’s best hitter it’s going to be Mike Trout or Bryce Harper.
Disagree? Want to add something? Got a question? You can find each of these @Rotoworld_BB writers on Twitter: @drewsilv, @nate_grimm, @baer_bill, @djshort, @ryanpboyer, @matthewpouliot.
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