Division by Division: Fantasy Watch: AFC East
All-Fantasy First Team
QB: Tom Brady, Patriots
RB1: LeSean McCoy, Bills
RB2: Lamar Miller, Dolphins
WR1: Brandon Marshall, Jets
WR2: Sammy Watkins, Bills
WR3: Julian Edelman, Patriots
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
D/ST: Bills
K: Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
Overrated
1. Jarvis Landry, Dolphins: Love Landry as a real-life player, but he’s being over-drafted in standard-scoring, non-PPR leagues. Landry hasn’t proven he can win on the outside. There are mouths to feed in Miami, and Landry averaged 9.0 YPR as a rookie. Jordan Cameron is a threat to steal his TDs.
2. DeVante Parker, Dolphins: Coming off a broken foot that is expected to cost him his entire rookie offseason and training camp, Parker is unlikely to make early-season waves. His 11th-round ADP is too rich for my tastes as the fifth or sixth option in Miami’s passing game.
3. Percy Harvin, Bills: Harvin wants us to believe he’s a “real” receiver every year. He hasn’t posted meaningful stats since his final season with the Vikings. Now in a run-heavy offense without a quarterback as the No. 2 pass-game option at best, owners are unlikely to get positive ROI.
4. Chris Ivory, Jets: Ivory is one of the more entertaining downhill runners in the game, but the new Jets regime has signaled it doesn’t fully believe in him following the signing of Stevan Ridley and acquisition of Zac Stacy. All three are “big” backs. Ivory is the most talented, but also costs the most.
5. LeSean McCoy, Bills: McCoy is going from running behind one of the league’s best offensive lines to one of its worst. There’s no question McCoy is on the RB1 radar, but Jeremy Hill and DeMarco Murray are more preferred options being drafted after McCoy.
Underrated
1. LeGarrette Blount, Patriots: Blount is suspended for the season opener. But gone are Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, leaving the backfield in Blount’s hands. He’s scored 16 TDs in his last 18 games with the Patriots. He’s a value pick currently being drafted as an RB3.
2. Eric Decker, Jets: Being drafted as a WR5, Decker is criminally undervalued. New Jets OC Chan Gailey got three-straight 1,000-yard seasons out of Stevie Johnson from 2010-2012. Decker is the superior talent under a pass-happy coordinator as a clear top-two option on his team. There will be plenty of WR2 production weeks from Decker.
3. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins: Entering his second season with QB guru OC Bill Lazor, Tannehill gets a revamped receiving corps and blindside protector LT Branden Albert back from injury. Tannehill’s deep ball remains an issue, but he had seven weekly QB1 finishes last season as overall QB8.
4. Brandon LaFell, Patriots: One of the biggest winners of the offseason. The Patriots didn’t add any notable receiver help via free agency or the draft, leaving LaFell locked into every-down duties. Last year’s WR23, LaFell is being drafted as WR42 and should produce around the same clip.
5. Kenny Stills, Dolphins: Stills has a mind-bogglingly low 13th-round ADP. Projected to fill the old Mike Wallace role, Stills is actually a more well-rounded receiver than his predecessor. He’s not a deep threat-only, as evidenced by his well-above average 78.8 percent catch rate last season. Usage is the only question mark in an offense with no shortage of receiving options.
Late-Round Fliers
1. Geno Smith, Jets: Smith is probably going undrafted in most standard-sized leagues. And that’s with good reason. He’s as volatile a passer as they come. But Smith finished last season on a hot streak with a 105.3 passer rating over the final four games. New OC Chan Gailey’s offense is much more QB-friendly. Eric Decker is healthy, and Brandon Marshall is the new No. 1 receiver.
2. Jay Ajayi, Dolphins: The Dolphins got a fifth-round steal in rookie Ajayi. If not for long-term knee concerns, he would’ve been a day-two pick. The coaching staff and front office are in agreement that Ajayi has three-down skills. He may push Lamar Miller for No. 1 duties at some point in 2015.
3. Jace Amaro, Jets: Amaro was in well over his head as a 2014 rookie trying to make a monster leap from Texas Tech’s elementary spread system to a more complex West Coast offense. Now back in a spread system, ultra-athletic Amaro will have a number of weeks he’ll on the TE2 streaming radar.
4. James White, Patriots: With Shane Vereen out of the picture, sophomore White has been lining up in all the spots vacated by Vereen. He and Travaris Cadet will compete for the old Vereen role, but we’re skeptical either will actually take on the job fully and receiver 10 touches per game. White is more of a deep-league PPR dart throw behind LeGarrette Blount.
5. Bilal Powell, Jets: While there’s competition for the Jets’ “big” back job, Powell appears to have a stranglehold on passing-down duties and may actually be the Jets’ running back to own in fantasy. Both the old and new coaching staffs love his soft hands and pass-pro skills. Powell does nothing great but can do a little bit of everything.
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