Weekend ratings predictions: Wimbledon finals, U.S. Women's … – Sporting News – SportingNews.com
First, the results of last week’s predictions:
— FIFA Women’s World Cup final, United States-Japan. Prediction: 10.8; final rating: 12.9 (match only), 11.4 (including pre-match).
— NASCAR Sprint Cup racing from Daytona. Prediction: 4.2; final rating: 2.7 (delayed).
— Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, live and encore. Predictions: 0.9 and 0.8; final ratings: 0.7 and 0.3.
— Major League Baseball, regional action. Prediction: 1.4; final rating: 1.6.
— FIFA Women’s World Cup third-place match, Germany-England. Prediction: 1.2; final rating: N/A.
— PGA Tour Greenbrier Classic, final round. Prediction: 2.0; final rating: N/A.
This week’s predictions:
Wimbledon women’s final, Serena Williams-Garbine Muguruza (9 a.m. ET Saturday, ESPN). With both the “Serena slam” and the more traditional calendar Grand Slam on the line, look for Sunday’s Wimbledon women’s final to score solid numbers for ESPN. While some casual observers may expect a rout, Williams’ recent habit for flirting with disaster could make for a dramatic match. Of course, even a snoozer would top last year’s subterranean 0.9 for Petra Kvitova against Eugenie Bouchard. Williams’ last appearance in the final had a 2.0. Prediction: 2.1.
Wimbledon men’s final, Novak Djokovic-Roger Federer (9 a.m. Sunday, ESPN). Two of the biggest names in tennis meet for the second straight year in the Wimbledon final. Despite going five sets, last year’s meeting between the rivals had only a 1.9 rating — down 10 percent from the previous year. With Federer less of an underdog this time around, perhaps the numbers will inch up a bit. Prediction: 2.0.
NASCAR Sprint Cup racing from Kentucky (7:30 p.m. Saturday, NBCSN). Ten years ago, it would have been unthinkable for NASCAR to be relegated to the network then known as OLN. Fortunes have changed over the past decade, however, and Saturday’s Sprint Cup debut on NBCSN is the first of 13 annual races over the next ten years. Expect a decent start, as last year’s Kentucky race on TNT provided a low bar to clear (2.3). Prediction: 2.2.
Major League Baseball, regional action (7 p.m. Saturday, FOX). The final primetime MLB telecast on FOX this season features baseball’s highest-profile matchup — the Yankees against the rival Red Sox. Last year, FOX earned a season-high 1.9 rating for primetime coverage featuring the teams; expect a slight dip this time around. Prediction: 1.8.
U.S. Women’s Open, third and final round (2:30 p.m. Saturday and Sunday, FOX). The U.S. Women’s Open did not get off to a good start on Fox Sports 1, and the FOX broadcast network is likely to incur declines as well this weekend. Last year’s coverage scored unusually strong numbers due to Michelle Wie’s victory, with NBC drawing a 1.0 on Saturday (+67 percent) and a 1.4 on Sunday (+100 percent). Barring a Wie repeat, expect this year’s performance to be a lot closer to 2013 (0.6 on Saturday, 0.7 on Sunday). Predictions: 0.7 and 0.8.
Tour de France, Stage 8 (8 a.m. Saturday, NBC). Shut out of Breakfast at Wimbledon for the fourth straight year, NBC has the Tour de France this weekend. The network’s Stage 8 coverage drew a 0.7 rating last year and a 0.8 in 2013. Prediction: 0.6.
Paulsen is the founder of Sports Media Watch and a contributor for Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @Paulsen_SMW .
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