Shutdown Countdown: Brighter days ahead for Oakland Raiders
Shutdown Corner is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per day in reverse order of our initial 2015 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on Aug. 8, the day before the preseason begins with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton.
One good draft can turn around a franchise, or at least start that process. The Oakland Raiders are hopeful they’re experiencing that right now.
The Raiders made two picks last season that give them real optimism for the first time in a long time. They took outside linebacker Khalil Mack in the first round and quarterback Derek Carr in the second. And one year into their careers, they look like potential foundation players on offense and defense.
This was more a stroke of luck than a stroke of genius by general manager Reggie McKenzie. Mack was considered by some the best defensive prospect in last year’s draft and the Raiders would have been crazy to not pick him when he fell to No. 5. Carr should have gone to the Houston Texans to start the second round, but instead Houston drafted a guard who started one game as a rookie (oh, this isn’t the last you’ll hear about the Texans’ 2014 draft failures in this series). Carr fell to the Raiders and again, they’d have been crazy not to draft him.
But no matter how the Raiders got them, they experienced an immediate impact.
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Mack played very well as a rookie, and although he didn’t make a ton of big plays, everyone assumes they’ll come in bunches very soon. Carr showed signs of being a quarterback the Raiders can build around. He has tremendous arm strength and poise in the pocket. It’s not easy to find a starting quarterback and the Raiders got a promising young one with the 36th pick. I’m still not quite sure how that happened, given all the quarterback desperation in the NFL. After pulling off a handful of the biggest draft debacles the NFL has seen this century, the Raiders were due for a break.
The Raiders doubled down with a pretty good offseason. They added another potential building block in the draft, receiver Amari Cooper, and had a much, much better free agency haul than last year’s meandering mess of washed up old veterans.
The good news doesn’t mean the Raiders will pass the Denver Broncos in the AFC West or anything. Oakland was outscored by 199 points last year, seemed in real danger of an 0-16 for a long while and in between nice wins against the Chiefs, 49ers and Bills they also lost by 52 to St. Louis and 33 to Denver. There’s a lot of ground to make up before they’re a consistently competitive team.
But for the first time in a long time it appears there are brighter days ahead. Coach Jack Del Rio comes in, and in him Oakland found someone with head-coaching experience who actually was excited to coach the Raiders, whose last playoff appearance came at the end of the 2002 season.
The rebuilding process hasn’t made much progress in about a decade because of horrible drafts, ill-advised trades and the 2014 free-agency failure (if you’d rank all-time free agent classes and take cap room into consideration, the Raiders’ 2014 free agency class is likely the worst ever). But it just took one seemingly great draft, and the Raiders look like they are on a positive path.
2014 review in less than 25 words: The Raiders, with a brutally tough schedule, started 0-10. The end was better, as they won three of their last six.
Is the roster better, worse or about the same?: The roster got better. There actually seemed to be a plan for free agency this time around. Nose tackle Dan Williams is good at his job, which is plugging the middle. Center Rodney Hudson is one of the best at his position. Inside linebacker Curtis Lofton is an upgrade. Receiver Michael Crabtree isn’t that far removed from being a top receiver and worth the gamble. Running back Roy Helu is an effective role player and outside linebacker Malcolm Smith isn’t a bad signing from Seattle. The Raiders reportedly tried to blow big money on running back DeMarco Murray, who likely won’t be effective once the team as a whole starts to turn the corner, but Murray went to Philadelphia so they caught a break there. Overall, Oakland did pretty well this offseason.
Best offseason acquisition: The Raiders got a good one with Cooper. The pick can be debated, because USC defensive lineman Leonard Williams fell to Oakland and the draft was deep at receiver (there was plenty of wideout talent still available when the Raiders were back on the clock in the second round), but you can’t fault the Raiders for getting Carr a legitimate No. 1 threat to grow with. Cooper had 124 catches, 1,727 yards and 16 touchdowns for Alabama last season. He seems like a near lock to be a productive pro.
Achilles heel: There is some young talent, but overall the roster is not great. Depth will need to develop, especially in the secondary. D.J. Hayden, a 2013 first-round pick, could go down as one of McKenzie’s worst moves if Hayden can’t stay healthy or be more productive. He hasn’t been a No. 1 corner. There’s nobody else on the roster that even looks like a reliable No. 2 corner, though maybe second-year player Travis Carrie can be that guy. Safety Charles Woodson is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s also going to turn 39 years old this season. The Raiders might have some serious issues stopping the pass.
Position in flux: Latavius Murray is an interesting case, because he has great physical talent but the Raiders also seemed to want to use any tired veteran instead of giving Murray a chance last year. Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones had 198 carries and averaged 3.2 yards per carry, and despite that atrocious output the Raiders didn’t give Murray a shot until Week 11. He had 112 yards on four carries in that game before getting hurt. Was it coaching malpractice? Possible. It didn’t make sense for the winless Raiders to keep wasting carries on McFadden and Jones-Drew and not see what Murray had to offer. But it also brings up a question of why Murray never got a shot even though the Raiders’ running game was impossibly awful. Maybe those reasons will be clear when Murray gets his shot to be the workhorse this year.
Ready to break out: I think the Raiders got a steal with tight end Clive Walford in the third round. Baltimore got a lot of credit for drafting Minnesota’s Maxx Williams in the second round, and nobody really noticed the Walford pick, but Walford and Williams had just about the exact same measurables at the combine and Walford put up better numbers last season. By the end of this season we’ll see that the Raiders got their tight end of the future.
Stat fact: If there’s a concern with Carr it’s that too often he dumped the ball off. His 5.5 yards per attempt was really bad, by far the lowest among NFL starters last year. Fellow rookie Blake Bortles of Jacksonville was second lowest at 6.1. Next on the list was Josh McCown at 6.7 yards per attempt, 1.2 yards more than Carr. Carr didn’t see the field well at the intermediate levels, which can improve with experience. And he wasn’t working with a competent receiving corps last season, which isn’t his fault. But he is way too skilled to average just 5.5 yards per attempt.
Schedule degree of difficulty: It’s not as bad as last year’s brutal slate, but the Raiders still play in a tough division. Their first three home games are against the Bengals, Ravens and Broncos, so it won’t be easy to get off to a fast start.
Burning question
This team’s best-case scenario for the 2014 season: If Carr continues to improve, Murray translates his physical skills and becomes a nice lead back and Cooper is a rookie stud, the offense could surprise. The defense has some talent in the front seven, which could help them win some games. It’s hard to see Oakland making a playoff push in that division, but it could improve by a few wins in the right circumstance.
And here’s the nightmare scenario: If Carr takes a step back, the entire Raiders rebuilding project does too. Make no mistake, there’s a lot riding on Carr. He did some nice things last season, but he’s still a second-round pick who was fine but not great as a rookie. The Raiders can’t realistically expect a playoff berth this season, but if progress isn’t shown by the young players then it might be back to the drawing board, and with a new front office.
The crystal ball says: The Carr-Cooper combination will be fun to watch, and while the Raiders won’t see a huge jump in their record, long-suffering fans will feel pretty good about the direction the team is headed by the end of this season.
Previous previews
32. Tennessee Titans
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
30. Washington Redskins
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
