Offseason Low Down: Saints Fantasy Preview

Saints Year in Review

2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 2nd (659)
2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 19th (406)
2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 3rd (1,095)
2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 5th (6.0)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Drew Brees
RB: Mark Ingram
WR: Brandin Cooks
WR: Marques Colston
TE: Ben Watson
TE: Josh Hill
LT: Terron Armstead
LG: Tim Lelito
C: Max Unger
RG: Jahri Evans
RT: Andrus Peat

Passing Game Outlook

Despite leading the NFL in pass attempts last season, Drew Brees ranked sixth in fantasy QB scoring — his worst finish in a decade — and posted his lowest YPA in five years. A vertical element was largely missing from New Orleans’ offense. While Brees’ deep-ball efficiency held strong per PFF’s charts, he finished 36th among 38 qualified quarterbacks in percentage of 20-plus-yard throws (9.7%), ahead of only Ryan Tannehill and Alex Smith. Brees’ fantasy points per attempt have been in annual decline, and the Saints’ decision to scale back Brees’ vertical passes may hint at internal concern with their aging quarterback’s performance. This offseason, the Saints stripped 36-year-old Brees’ weapons and invested heavily in their run game, trading for C Max Unger, using a first-round draft pick on OT Andrus Peat, signing Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller to relatively pricey contracts, and investing a third-rounder into QB Garrett Grayson. I don’t believe Brees is by any means “done,” but I do think Sean Payton is committed to establishing more of a ball-control approach. I look at Brees’ revamped supporting cast — 5-foot-10, 189-pound Brandin Cooks, declining Marques Colston, intriguing-but-unproven Josh Hill — and have a hard time projecting Brees for 30 touchdown passes.

Brandin Cooks currently has an ADP of WR16. He is typically drafted somewhere in the third round. Last year’s WR16 in standard leagues was Kelvin Benjamin, who posted a 73-1,008-9 receiving line. The PPR WR16 was Julian Edelman (92-972-4). These do seem like reasonable benchmarks for Cooks to hit considering his overwhelming amount of opportunity, plus quarterback play, and god-given talent as a 22-year-old (in September) for whom the Saints traded up to invest a top-20 pick in last year’s draft. I’m slightly wary of Cooks because his ceiling probably isn’t a whole lot higher than his Average Draft Position. At the same time, Cooks was on pace for 85 catches, 997 all-purpose yards, and seven TDs before landing on I.R. ten games into his rookie year. And that was with Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills, and Pierre Thomas siphoning targets. Ultimately, I can’t take issue with Cooks’ cost. I’d be willing to set his usage floor at 90 receptions and 20 rushing attempts with a chance at 130 touches.

I had relatively high 2014 hopes for Marques Colston following his fast finish to 2013, but when the games started the Saints’ slot receiver looked out of gas. Dropping 8-of-99 targets, Colston’s role was noticeably reduced in New Orleans’ offense, seeing the second lowest target total of his career despite playing in all 16 games on a team that led the NFC in pass attempts. Colston’s opportunity has theoretically increased with Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills, and Pierre Thomas gone, but it’s fair to wonder how much the 32-year-old has left. At least Colston’s price is cheap; his ADP is currently near the 10th-/11th-round turn. Still, I wouldn’t rule out Nick Toon, Seantavius Jones, and/or Brandon Coleman eating into Colston’s snaps this season. There are segments of the fantasy community that envision Colston as a great value pick. Personally, I don’t see Colston as more than a low-upside, inconsistent WR4.

2012 fourth-round pick Nick Toon spent his first two seasons injured and buried on the depth chart before becoming a factor late last year. He topped 40 yards in four of the Saints’ final six games, only dropping one pass and securing 74% of his targets. The son of three-time Pro Bowl Jets receiver Al Toon, Nick ran 4.43/4.54 with an explosive 10-foot-10 broad jump and 39-inch vertical at 6-foot-2, 215 coming out of Wisconsin. Recently promised his snap count will go “way up” by coach Sean Payton, Toon will enter camp with a sizable lead on Brandon Coleman, Seantavius Jones, and Josh Morgan for third receiver duties. It’s still possible the Saints end up as primarily a two-tight end team featuring Josh Hill and Ben Watson, which would threaten Toon’s playing time. If Toon does stay healthy and play to his potential, however, he could carve out a major role on offense and emerge as a legit fantasy asset.

Coach Sean Payton and top Saints beat writer Mike Triplett have thrown cold water on the notion of a big-time breakout year for Josh Hill. Payton has hinted Hill may only play in “sub-packages,” which would mean he isn’t a full-time tight end. In this scenario, superior blocker Ben Watson could end up with more snaps. I don’t think we’ll get a serious handle on Hill’s passing-game involvement before the first month of the season, but I remain intrigued by his potential as a Dynasty stash and late-round TE2 in re-draft leagues. Hill checks a ton of boxes. He’s brimming with opportunity after the Jimmy Graham trade. He plays on a fast-paced team with a future Hall of Fame quarterback. Hill is athletic, running 4.66 with a highly explosive 10-foot-7 broad jump and 36 1/2-inch vertical at 6-foot-5, 246. Hill is a work in progress as a run blocker, but pass protected well last season. Albeit in a tiny sample size, Hill has been productive in his opportunities, parlaying 30 career targets into 20 catches, 220 yards, and six touchdowns. I’m not drafting Hill to be my fantasy starter, but I’m keeping an open mind.

Running Game Outlook

The Saints’ offseason actions suggest they intend to play balanced offense with Mark Ingram as a foundation player coming off a breakout season. Ingram finished 2014 as fantasy’s No. 9 back in per-game scoring, averaging 19.2 carries over his final ten games. Still only 25 years old — he’s only nine months older than Bucs second-year RB Charles Sims — Ingram holds a 4.65 YPC average across his last 23 games and stands to benefit from numerous offensive line upgrades. The Saints will mix in C.J. Spiller heavily as a space back, but Ingram’s role is locked in as New Orleans’ early-down and goal-line bellcow. If the Saints are a good team that stays ahead and/or competitive in the majority of games, Ingram’s TD upside will be as high as any back in football. Despite missing three games last year, Ingram led the NFL with 20 carries inside the opposing five-yard line. Vegas does expect New Orleans to be good this year, assigning the Saints the NFL’s ninth-best Win Total, and highest in the NFC South. In games where the Saints do fall behind, Spiller will likely end up playing more than Ingram.

This past offseason, the Saints parted with players who combined for a whopping 335 targets last year. While Brandin Cooks, Nick Toon, and Josh Hill will be counted on to take in-house steps forward, New Orleans’ lone significant pass-game addition was C.J. Spiller, who offers immense PPR upside on a team that last year led the NFL in passes thrown to running backs. Travaris Cadet and Pierre Thomas combined for 83 receptions. Spiller was a fantasy dud for much of his time in Buffalo, which can largely be attributed to poor coaching; Doug Marrone‘s Bills staff badly mismanaged Spiller from a usage standpoint and literally let him play on a high ankle sprain in 2013. Spiller still holds a 4.97 career yards-per-carry average and remains one of the NFL’s most-dynamic players. Just as Chan Gailey once effectively did, Sean Payton has vowed to scheme Spiller into space. One Saints beat writer has predicted that Spiller will handle more touches than Mark Ingram this year, possibly an overly-bold call but interesting nonetheless. It’s perhaps also worth noting that Spiller received a slightly better contract than Ingram, signing on for $9 million guaranteed compared to Ingram’s $7.6 million.

If you really want to go all-in on the Saints’ 2015 running game, consider drafting Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller on the same team, and using a late pick on Khiry Robinson as a handcuff. Robinson is unlikely to be a week-to-week fantasy factor barring injury to one of the backs ahead of him, but neither Ingram nor Spiller has a stellar track record of durability, and 25-year-old Robinson has proven effective when given opportunities, averaging 4.51 yards on 130 career carries. In Ingram’s three missed games last season, Robinson combined for 245 yards and a touchdown on 47 runs (5.21 YPC). He’ll be a fantasy RB2 if Ingram goes down.

Vegas Win Total

As mentioned previously, the Saints have the ninth-highest Vegas Win Total in the NFL at 9.0 projected victories. The division-rival Falcons and Panthers are both projected at 8.5, while the Bucs’ win total is six. I really like New Orleans’ non-division schedule; they face the AFC South and NFC East, Arizona and Detroit. I’m buying the Saints winning double-digit games this season. They get ballhawking FS Jairus Byrd and top CB Keenan Lewis back healthy on defense, will be able to play much more 3-4 than they did last year, and have a complete offense that I believe will be able to impose its will. I like the over on the Saints’ Win Total.

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