Offseason Low Down: Vikings Fantasy Preview

Vikings Year in Review

2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 22nd (517)
2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 18th (413)
2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 28th (981)
2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 26th (5.1)

Check out the team-by-team fantasy preview schedule.

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Teddy Bridgewater
RB: Adrian Peterson
WR: Mike Wallace
WR: Charles Johnson
WR: Jarius Wright
TE: Kyle Rudolph
LT: Matt Kalil
LG: Brandon Fusco
C: John Sullivan
RG: T.J. Clemmings
RT: Phil Loadholt

Passing Game Outlook

Historically one of his generation’s most-vertical offensive minds, OC Norv Turner severely dialed back his approach in Teddy Bridgewater‘s rookie year. Per PFF, just 10.2% of Teddy’s passes traveled past 20 yards, the NFL’s sixth-lowest clip among 38 qualifying quarterbacks. This is an instance of good coaching; Bridgewater is a composed timing-and-rhythm passer and a work in progress as a field-stretching thrower. Bridgewater labored through his initial six starts (61.0% completions, 4 TDs, 6 INTs, 6.48 YPA) before catching fire down the stretch, compiling a 10:6 TD-to-INT ratio, 68.9% completion rate, and 98.1 QB rating over the Vikings’ final six games. This came despite genuinely poor offensive line play and “go-to guys” consisting of practice-squad signee Charles Johnson, aging Greg Jennings, Jarius Wright, and backup-caliber TE Chase Ford. A second-year leap into top-12 QB1 production seems unlikely in a run-based offense, but can’t be ruled out. Bridgewater is an accurate passer with rushing ability whose supporting cast will be far stronger this year. I like him as a high-floor QB2.

Charles Johnson took a circuitous route into the Vikings’ starting lineup last season. Drafted in the 2013 seventh round out of Grand Valley State, Johnson immediately tore his ACL at Packers training camp before joining the practice squad, was signed onto the Browns’ roster two Octobers ago, was part of the Browns’ final 2014 cuts, and was signed off Cleveland’s practice squad by the Vikings last September. Johnson compiled a 26-415-2 line over the final seven games, numbers that extrapolate to 60-949-5 on a 16-game pace. Described as “far and away our best receiver” by OC Norv Turner at February’s Owners Meetings, Johnson ran 4.39 with a wicked 11-foot-1 broad jump coming out of college, and has bulked up to 6-foot-2, 225. Johnson plays X receiver, the position manned by Michael Irvin and Vincent Jackson in Norv’s past offenses. Turner’s scheme has changed — and Johnson probably isn’t on Irvin or V-Jax’s talent level — but the X typically handles more volume than the Z, and Norv is certainly a fan of Johnson’s game. 26-year-old Johnson has breakout appeal in his first full NFL season.

Mike Wallace has been so over-analyzed by game-film aficionados that my sense is he’s gone from an overrated early-career deep threat to an under-appreciated playmaker whose attention-commanding presence positively impacts the offense even when he doesn’t get the ball. Wallace has finished as a top-30 fantasy receiver in each of his six NFL seasons and ranked No. 18 last year despite an utter lack of deep-ball chemistry with Ryan Tannehill. Wallace will play Z for OC Norv Turner, historically manned by low-volume vertical streakers Malcom Floyd and Alvin Harper. Teddy Bridgewater‘s deep-ball game is only slightly better than Tannehill’s. Charles Johnson is the sexier target in Minnesota’s pass-catcher corps, but Wallace still has the far-superior track record of production, and — all things considered — is probably the safest bet to lead the Vikings in receiving this year. I have Johnson and Wallace ranked right next to each other. Their ADPs are also near-identical early in round eight.

Cordarrelle Patterson and Jarius Wright will compete for sub-package snaps behind Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson. Technically, Patterson is directly behind Johnson on the depth chart, but is more likely to settle in as a rich man’s Jacoby Jones, returning kicks and serving as a situational wideout. As a quick-twitch, 5’10/182-pound slot receiver, Wright fits best as the third receiver between Wallace and Johnson, and indeed played ahead of Patterson last year, posting a 42-588-2 line while averaging 8.0 yards after catch per reception, the second highest clip in the NFL behind only DeSean Jackson, per PFF’s charts. While 24-year-old Patterson has been unable to grasp the nuances of playing outside receiver on a full-time basis, 25-year-old Wright is an underrated playmaker with 4.42 long speed and a defined role in the offense.

Everyone except the Vikings — the team that signed him to a six-year, $37.5 million contract last offseason — has seemingly forgotten or written off Kyle Rudolph, and understandably so. Also oft-injured at Notre Dame, Rudolph underwent sports hernia surgery last September and battled knee and ankle woes late in the year, all but eliminating Rudolph’s effectiveness and costing him seven games. While Rudolph simply isn’t reliable enough to be counted on as a fantasy TE1, I’m keeping an open 2015 mind with quarterback stability in Minnesota and a dirt-cheap price; Rudolph’s ADP is in the middle of the 13th round. Still only 25 years old, Rudolph is actually a month younger than Travis Kelce, and his career touchdown rate (12.8%) falls between Jimmy Graham (13.2%) and Antonio Gates (12.6%). I realize it’s a very big “if,” but if Rudolph cobbles together a relatively healthy season, he’s probably going to score a fair amount of red-zone TDs. I really like him as a TE2 or TE3 in best-ball leagues.

Running Game Outlook

The reasons to like Adrian Peterson as a 2015 fantasy pick have nothing to do with whether or not he’s “superhuman.” They have everything to do with Peterson’s special talent and a voluminous projected workload in the best offense in which Peterson has played since Brett Favre. The Vikings also get back Brandon Fusco, a top-five run-blocking guard in Pro Football Focus’ 2013 grades before he missed all but three games last season with a pectoral tear. At age 30, Peterson probably isn’t the same back he was during his 2,097-yard 2012 campaign, but he has posted a 334-1,540-11 line over his last 16 games, adding 32 receptions and two more scores in the air. The Vikings certainly won’t be shy about riding Peterson hard, and OC Norv Turner has a history of doing so with his backs. Under Turner, LaDainian Tomlinson (2001, 2007), Frank Gore (2006), Ricky Williams (2002, 2003), Stephen Davis (2000), Terry Allen (1995, 1996) and Emmitt Smith (1991, 1992) have all posted 300-plus-carry seasons. Long underutilized in the passing game, Peterson’s receiving usage could also get a boost. Ryan Mathews (2011), Tomlinson (2001, 2007, 2008), Gore (2006), LaMont Jordan (2005), Williams (2003), Ricky Ervins (1994), and Smith (1992, 1993) all caught 50-plus balls in Norv attacks.

I’m in the pro-Adrian Peterson camp for 2015. If you like betting against 30-year-old running backs coming off lost seasons, you ought to be all-in on Jerick McKinnon as a late-round lottery ticket. A 2014 third-round SPARQ freak out of Georgia Southern, McKinnon doesn’t get enough credit for so quickly grasping running back in the NFL as a converted quarterback from a small college. McKinnon had to learn pass protection from scratch and averaged 4.76 YPC, emerging as the Vikings’ lead back following Peterson’s suspension. McKinnon “runs big” for his size (5’9/209) and is physical between the tackles, finishing 11th among 58 qualifiers in PFF’s 2014 yards after contact per attempt ratings. In terms of sheer athleticism, there aren’t five more gifted backs than McKinnon in the NFL right now. The Vikings are so smitten with McKinnon that they’re trying to carve out an every-week role for him behind Peterson, ideally as a change-up back. Long term, McKinnon is Peterson’s three-down heir apparent.

Vegas Win Total

The Vikings’ Vegas Win Total climbed from 7.0 to 7.5 after Adrian Peterson reported to minicamp. My sense they’ll be a very popular “over” bet this season, with many ticketing Minnesota for a breakout of sorts based on Teddy Bridgewater‘s fast finish to 2014 and the restoration of a potentially dominant running game. The defense also enters year two of Mike Zimmer‘s system with an impressive amount of young talent. The Vikings’ non-division opponents are the NFC West, AFC West, Giants, and Falcons. I’m kind of torn on Minnesota. I really see this as a 7-9 win club that’s a year away from contending for the playoffs, but I don’t dispute it’s coming, and the roster and coaching staff have improved significantly over the past two years. My best guess is the Vikings finish at eight or nine wins, so I’d take the over on 7.5.

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