Offseason Low Down: Patriots Fantasy Preview

Patriots Year in Review

2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 7th (609)
2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 13th (438)
2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 5th (1,073)
2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 13th (5.5)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Tom Brady
RB: LeGarrette Blount
WR: Julian Edelman
WR: Brandon LaFell
TE: Rob Gronkowski
TE: Scott Chandler
LT: Nate Solder
LG: Marcus Cannon
C: Bryan Stork
RG: Ryan Wendell
RT: Sebastian Vollmer

Passing Game Outlook

For however long Tom Brady is suspended — his Deflategate ban currently rests at four games, pending appeal — 2014 second-round pick Jimmy Garoppolo will handle the keys to New England’s offense. Garoppolo’s pre-draft detractors were concerned with his pocket presence coming out of Eastern Illinois, but Garoppolo was known to be coveted by Saints coach Sean Payton, and was drafted 62nd overall by Bill Belichick. Well built (6’2/226) with a live-enough arm, plus athleticism, and a quick release, Garoppolo shined during his rookie preseason, posting a 7.8 YPA and 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio across four appearances. For now, Garoppolo is scheduled to make starts against the Steelers, Bills, Jaguars, and Cowboys before Brady returns. In a historically productive and fast-paced New England offense, Garoppolo will be worth DFS and QB1 streamer consideration in the season’s first four weeks.

Even Tom Brady‘s most heart-throbbing fans had to be concerned with the future first-ballot Hall of Famer’s slow 2014 start. Locked onto Julian Edelman and seemingly shell shocked in the pocket, Brady failed to clear 250 yards in each of the Patriots’ first four games, managing one touchdown pass per week as New England started 2-2. The eventual Super Bowl champs caught fire thereafter with Brady in the lead, compiling a 39:11 TD-to-INT ratio over the final 15 games, including playoffs. Brady’s deep ball has dipped to Tannehillian levels, but he still picks apart defenses in the Patriots’ dink-and-dunk offense. And he’s a touchdown-tossing machine whenever Rob Gronkowski is healthy. This year, New England’s defense may take a step back after losing Darrelle Revis, forcing more onto Brady’s plate. The suspension could make Brady a value pick; he’ll be a mid-range to high-end fantasy starter when he returns.

One of the most league-settings-dependent commodities in fantasy football, Julian Edelman has finished as the PPR WR15 and WR16 the past two seasons, but 18th and 26th in standard scoring. A non-TD scorer who averages just 10.3 career yards per catch, Edelman’s value is fragile because he so heavily relies on volume, and Edelman is prone to stretches where he’s barely a viable week-to-week fantasy starter when he isn’t getting peppered with targets. While Edelman’s chemistry with Tom Brady is undeniable, he simply isn’t the kind of receiver I want to draft, particularly at a fifth-round ADP. Rob Gronkowski is a full year removed from his ACL/MCL tear, Brandon LaFell is entering his second season in the system, and No. 2 tight end Scott Chandler could be ticketed for a surprisingly prominent role in a Patriots offense that may not have Brady until Week 6. I’m letting other people draft Edelman this season.

Brandon LaFell looks like an excellent value at his mid- to late-ninth-round Average Draft Position after finishing 2014 as the overall fantasy WR21 on the strength of career highs in catches (74), yards (953), and TDs (7). This was despite a slow incorporation into the Patriots’ offense; LaFell goose egged in each of the first two games. LaFell did mix in some high highs and low lows, but scored a touchdown and/or cleared 60 yards in 12 of New England’s final 16 games, including the playoffs. Perhaps LaFell still lacks “believers” after an underwhelming four seasons in Carolina to begin his career. He’s 28 years old with an arrow pointing up.

Rob Gronkowski is the single-most-unstoppable skill-position player in football, and the disparity between fantasy’s next-best tight end has widened with Jimmy Graham in run-first Seattle. Draft Gronkowski as high as you wish. I have him as a top-five re-draft pick. Gronk is the rare talent who should keep producing at an extremely high level even with a downtick in quarterback play. Concerns over Tom Brady‘s suspension have pushed Gronkowski’s season-long re-draft ADP into the middle of round two, where is a difference-making value.

There has been some buzz about Scott Chandler recently, in both the real and fake football communities. Is this another Tim Wright or Zach Sudfeld situation, or will Chandler have a real role in the Patriots’ offense? Most likely, that will be determined on a week-to-week basis based on matchups. 30-year-old Chandler has offered little in the way of movement skills since his 2012 ACL tear, but stands in at a towering 6-foot-7 and 270 pounds, and was pursued by two elite organizations in 2015 free agency, eventually picking the Patriots over the Ravens. He signed a two-year, $5.3 million deal with a $2 million signing bonus. Chandler should be a factor in red-zone sets and could become a TE1 if Rob Gronkowski‘s old durability woes reappear. In best-ball drafts, you could do worse than Chandler as a last-round TE3.

Running Game Outlook

A battering ram who’s very hard to bring down when the blocking gives him a head of steam, LeGarrette Blount registered a combined 107-470-6 rushing line across eight 2014-2015 games with New England, including the playoffs. Blount has 16 touchdowns in 18 career games as a Patriot and currently looks to have a clear path to early-down carries in New England’s high-volume offense. Although Blount has been productive for them in the past, the Patriots view him as an expendable commodity, and Blount is owed just $1 million in salary and bonuses, no portion of which is guaranteed. Still, Blount could have significant 2015 fantasy value as a touchdown scorer if he stays on task in Foxboro. He will open the season on a one-game suspension stemming from last year’s marijuana arrest in Pittsburgh with Le’Veon Bell.

James White, Travaris Cadet, Dion Lewis, Tyler Gaffney, Brandon Bolden, and Jonas Gray will vie for the roster spots behind Blount. Ask a singular Patriots beat writer which competitor he or she believes will win the No. 2 and/or passing-down-back job, and you’re liable to get a different answer each time. Gaffney is a favorite in the metrics community for his impressive 2014 Combine, but is a spitting image of Jackie Battle, who also had great pre-draft workout numbers. A ballyhooed 2014 fourth-round pick out of Wisconsin, White earned just 31 snaps as a rookie, but seems to be a favorite of some covering the team and was drafted specifically as insurance on free-agent departure Shane Vereen. Cadet caught 38 passes for the Saints last year, but is still learning how to pass protect as a fourth-year pro. The Pats seem to have typecast Bolden as a special teamer. Gray is an early-down bruiser like Blount. My best guess is that White emerges as Vereen’s successor, but I’m not holding my breath for fantasy value. It’s also quite conceivable the Patriots acquire another back late in training camp if no one steps up.

Vegas Win Total

The Pats’ Vegas Win Total is 10.5, tied with Denver and Indianapolis for third highest in the NFL behind Seattle and Green Bay. The loss of Darrelle Revis is a concern, but one that can be masked by an improved front seven, which is stacked at linebacker and looks downright ferocious in the front four following the additions of Jabaal Sheard, first-round pick Malcom Brown, and underrated fourth-rounder Trey Flowers. The biggest variable is the length of Tom Brady‘s suspension. If the ban stands at four games, Brady won’t return until Week 6, following New England’s Week 5 bye. Still, Bill Belichick teams have overcome a tremendous amount of adversity in recent seasons to win 12 or more games in five consecutive years. Do you think the Patriots are more likely to win ten games, or 11-plus? I’m going with 11-plus.

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