Offseason Low Down: Dolphins Fantasy Preview
Dolphins Year in Review
2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 12th (595)
2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 22nd (399)
2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 12th (1,040)
2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 16th (5.4)
Check out the team-by-team fantasy preview schedule.
Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Ryan Tannehill
RB: Lamar Miller
WR: Jarvis Landry
WR: Kenny Stills
WR: DeVante Parker
TE: Jordan Cameron
LT: Branden Albert
LG: Dallas Thomas
C: Mike Pouncey
RG: Billy Turner
RT: Ja’Wuan James
Passing Game Outlook
Ryan Tannehill made a third-year leap in first-year OC Bill Lazor‘s Chip Kelly-style offense last season, posting career bests across the board while ranking sixth in completion rate (66.4) among passers with at least 150 attempts. Lazor introduced read-option plays to Miami, capitalizing on ex-college wideout Tannehill’s athleticism en route to a 56-311-1 rushing line and top-nine QB1 finish. Tannehill’s ceiling may always be limited by his inability to consistently stretch the field, but he could take off if that part of his game ever clicks. Therein lies Tannehill’s potential-based upside. For now, Tannehill should be viewed as a high-floor, if low-end fantasy starter. Tannehill’s weapons have improved with Kenny Stills replacing Mike Wallace, Jordan Cameron offering more big-play ability than Charles Clay at tight end, and No. 14 overall pick DeVante Parker ticketed for eventual No. 1 duties. Tannehill is currently being drafted as the QB13 off the board, behind Eli Manning and ahead of Philip Rivers and Teddy Bridgewater.
Jarvis Landry has become something of a whipping boy in the fantasy community due to his shortage of Combine measurables, rookie-year yards-per-catch average (9.02), and running back-like aDOT (Average Depth of Target). Still, Landry’s role as a target vacuum in OC Bill Lazor‘s high-percentage passing offense is tough to ignore, and may have been solidified by first-round pick DeVante Parker‘s June foot surgery. Emerging as a starter in Week 6 last year, Landry posted a combined 59-503-4 receiving line across the final nine weeks, numbers that extrapolate to 105-895-8 on a 16-game pace. The anti-Landry sentiment among fantasy writers has kept Landry’s Average Draft Position in value-pick territory; he typically lasts until the late sixth and early seventh rounds and is being drafted as the WR29 off the board, even as a legitimate candidate for 90-100 catches. While Landry’s usage in Lazor’s scheme restricts his big-play potential, it’s fair to wonder if his athletic limitations are overstated. In addition to gobbling up targets on offense, Landry ranked fourth in the NFL in kickoff return average (28.1) among returners with at least 20 runbacks and also returned punts as a 21-year-old rookie.
First-round pick DeVante Parker missed the initial seven games of his final college season with a broken left foot, then underwent an additional surgery in early June after experiencing soreness following OTAs. He’s likely to miss most or all of training camp and the preseason. Parker is big (6’3/209) and fast (4.45) with a huge catching radius, but he’s also raw from a route-running standpoint, and the Dolphins are deep enough at receiver to treat Parker’s return cautiously. His rookie-year impact is entirely up in the air. Parker is still an intriguing best-ball pick in the double-digit rounds, and will be worth stashing on re-draft benches even if he doesn’t open the season as a starter. It would be overly bold to project an Odell Beckham-like rookie year from Parker, but he is the most talented receiver on Miami’s roster and was ripping up spring practices before the setback, even when matched up with Dolphins top CB Brent Grimes.
Acquired from New Orleans for a third-round pick in March, Kenny Stills will help replace Mike Wallace as the Dolphins’ primary vertical threat. Stills was sensational in that role for the Saints, posting a 95-1,572-8 receiving line the past two years, and averaging 16.5 yards per catch on 133 targets. Among wideouts who played at least 25% of their team’s 2014 snaps, PFF graded Stills No. 1 in deep-route catch rate (64.3%) for securing 9-of-10 “catchable” passes for 370 yards on throws of 20-plus yards. Stills has dropped only five balls through two NFL seasons and is only 23 years old; he’s just nine months older than rookie teammate DeVante Parker. Stills’ big-play ability is undeniable, but his usage and quarterback play are big question marks. How many targets will Stills see in a rich pass-catcher corps that also includes Parker, Jarvis Landry, Jordan Cameron, and Greg Jennings? Do the Dolphins envision Stills as a one-trick-pony lid lifter, or will they give him chances in the short and intermediate range? Will Stills’ deep-game efficiency tumble downgrading from Drew Brees to Ryan Tannehill? There are a lot of moving parts in Miami. At least Stills is priced reasonably; he typically lasts until the 12th and 13th rounds.
Cut by the Vikings following a pedestrian 59-742-6 season, Greg Jennings drew interest from the Panthers, Jaguars, and Saints before signing a two-year, $8 million deal with Miami. A short-to-intermediate target at this stage of his career, Jennings turns 32 in September and has gone 18 straight games without posting 80 yards. Jennings’ real-life value is derived from his veteran presence, reliability, and ability to play all three wideout positions. Ideally, Kenny Stills (Z), DeVante Parker (X), and Jarvis Landry (slot) would emerge as the Dolphins’ primary three-receiver set, with Jennings serving as the backup to each spot. For now, Parker’s foot problems set up Jennings to start early in the year. Even with more opportunity than expected, Jennings seems unlikely to provide much fantasy value before eventually ceding snaps to Parker.
Jordan Cameron is a top-five talent at his position, but he’s suffered three known concussions since 2012 and missed 17 games through four NFL seasons. The Dolphins were willing to roll the dice on Cameron’s upside, letting transition player Charles Clay walk and signing Cameron to a two-year, $15 million deal with a $4 million signing bonus. Turning 27 in August, Cameron is one injury-ravaged season removed from an 80-917-7 Pro Bowl campaign in Cleveland. Cameron’s durability failings are priced into his ADP, where he is being selected as the TE9 off the board at the eighth-/ninth-round turn. There are three tight ends going before Cameron that I believe he is a solid bet to outproduce: Julius Thomas, Owen Daniels, and Zach Ertz. At his more-than-fair price point, value hunters should be all over Cameron in best-ball and re-draft leagues alike.
Running Game Outlook
A fantasy tease his first two NFL seasons, Lamar Miller finally broke through as a third-year pro, averaging 5.09 yards per carry and finishing as the fantasy RB9. Miller is a well-built (5’11/212) back with big-play ability, but the coaching staff didn’t entrust him with a single 20-carry game in 2014, and played Knowshon Moreno ahead of Miller when Moreno was healthy. A previous coaching staff forced Miller to share time with Daniel Thomas. (Both Moreno and Thomas are now street free agents.) While Miller’s rushing efficiency is highly impressive — he’s averaging 4.65 YPC for his career — Miller is a bit rough around the edges. He “runs small” and isn’t a true tackle-breaking interior runner, can be hit or miss in pass protection, and dropped six passes last year, third most among running backs. There are some indications the Dolphins view Miller as more of a committee back than true feature runner. Still, Miller should enter the season locked in as the Fins’ lead back and has an affordable price tag as the current RB17 in ADP.
Holdover Damien Williams and fifth-round pick Jay Ajayi will enter camp in a dogfight to back up Lamar Miller. Williams managed a 3.39 YPC average on 36 attempts as a rookie, but showed value in the passing game (21-187-1), offers plus size (5’11/222), and runs 4.45. Ajayi was widely viewed as a day-two talent before concerns over a preexisting knee injury that may eventually require microfracture surgery sent his draft stock tumbling. A late-May report in the Miami Herald stated Ajayi was the favorite for No. 2-back duties and could “eventually challenge Miller for (the) starting job.” The knee injury isn’t expected to be a short-term concern. 6-foot, 221 with an extremely-aggressive running style, loose hips, light feet, and soft hands, Ajayi is certainly the more ballyhooed prospect after drawing pre-draft comparisons to Steven Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. Because the Dolphins don’t seem entirely sold on Miller as a bellcow back, the Ajayi-Williams battle will be worth monitoring throughout August.
Vegas Win Total
The Dolphins’ Vegas Win Total is 8.5. Miami’s offense is trending upward entering OC Bill Lazor‘s second year on the job, while the defense is stacked on the line but has a boatload of question marks in the back seven. The schedule sets up perfectly for a fast start, before getting very difficult from Week 8 on. Outside of their division, the Dolphins face the AFC South, NFC East, Baltimore, and San Diego. I see the Dolphins as an 8-10 win team where a few bounces of the ball will make the difference. I would cautiously take the over on Miami’s 8.5-game win total.
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