Ashes 2015: Sky Sports experts make their series predictions – SkySports
Last Updated: 07/07/15 8:12pm
The Ashes are within touching distance.
With the first Investec Test between England and Australia at Cardiff just hours away, here’s how our Sky Sports pundits see the series panning out…
Bob Willis
The key difference between the teams is the strength in depth of Australia’s bowling attack in comparison to England’s. Both sides will score lots of runs but the Aussies are better equipped to take 20 wickets. Australia’s batsmen will definitely target whichever spinner England play and try to hit him out of the attack, thereby exposing Ben Stokes to more overs. If he proves too uneconomical, clearly the other three bowlers will have to get through more work than Alastair Cook would want them to in a day’s play.
England vs Australia
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Ryan Harris may be out but Mitchell Johnson, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood – plus Pat Cummins – are dynamic; I was very impressed with the way Hazlewood bowled in the West Indies. He looks not a pale imitation of Glenn McGrath. England, presumably, will try to target Australia’s spinner but Nathan Lyon has a little bit more experience on his side, which will make it more difficult. England will be regenerated by their performances against New Zealand but they are going to have to be at their very, very best to compete with this Aussie side. I think they’ll perform well but it’s the strength in depth that worries me.
The Verdict: A scoreline of 3-1 to Australia comes to mind (Sky Bet odds: 6/1).
Nasser Hussain
Home advantage is important for England and will keep them competitive. Let’s not forget Australia haven’t won here since 2001 and the last few months have shown that people shouldn’t write England off. The key question is ‘can they win the key moments?’ England have won five of their last eight Test matches but only one of their last five series, so there’s an anomaly there. It’s a similar story to what happened in Australia in 2013/14; England lost 5-0 but on a number of occasions they had Australia deep in trouble without finishing off the job. That means taking every chance that comes their way and improving their catching, which was abysmal in the New Zealand series.
Alastair Cook has to have a really good series with the bat and as captain. His form with the bat against New Zealand was a revelation – he was absolutely brilliant – but Australia will go after him, as they always do. On paper the tourists have the slightly more balanced side but the recent one-day series against New Zealand has given England fans some belief. As in 2005, 2009 and 2013 they will turn up and be England’s 12th man. They will go after Australia.
The Verdict: It’s too close to call – I’m going for 2-2, with one Test match affected by the weather (Sky Bet odds: 9/1).
Ian Botham
A lot of good things came out of the series against New Zealand and the confidence England gained from those victories will stand them in good stead for the Ashes. Australia will try to bully England but this side will stand its ground and show character. As ever, the first Test is going to be crucial – and if the weather stays fair, there are probably going to be results in all five Tests. It’s going to be a very tight series. I think England can upset the apple cart and win if the bowlers turn up; James Anderson has over 400 Test wickets, Stuart Broad is nearing 300 and Mark Wood is an exciting prospect; Wood has genuine pace and can get the ball up into the mid-90mphs, something England haven’t had since Steve Harmison was in his pomp.
Ben Stokes could have a massive impact on the series. He’s a genuine all-rounder, good enough to be in the team for both his bowling and batting, plus he’s an exceptional fielder. I think the pitch will turn in Cardiff and, as I’ve been saying for quite a while now, I hope the selectors go with Adil Rashid. It is always an advantage to have a spinner in your side who can turn the ball both ways. Why he didn’t get a go in the West Indies, I’ll never know.
The Verdict: There’ll only be a Test between the sides. It could go 3-2 either way but I’ve got a good feeling England will win (Sky Bet odds: England 3-2 – 22/1).
Mike Atherton
Recent history suggests home venues are a big advantage and Australia haven’t won here since 2001, so I am expecting England to be very competitive. Recent history also suggests that once a team gets ahead in the modern game – with no first-class matches in between – the team that goes behind will find it very difficult to get back on track. So I expect the early games to be very close, but the final scoreline may not necessarily reflect that. For England, Alastair Cook remains a key player at the top of the order – if he plays as he did against New Zealand, that will go a long way to ensuring Australia are kept out in the field for long periods which, with some ageing legs, would certainly help England’s cause.
Australia’s bowling looks stronger and more incisive, although England will have four out-and-out seamers to Australia’s three, with Shane Watson, whose bowling is less and less incisive, likely to be the all-rounder. Spinner Nathan Lyon carries a big advantage over Moeen Ali. So it’s advantage Australia then in the most important area of all – the ability to take 20 wickets. But I have a feeling that things could turn quickly against Michael Clarke if England get off to a good start in the first two Tests and Australia’s batting does look vulnerable to me – it’s nowhere near as certain and strong as some Australian sides that I have seen.
The Verdict: A prediction? It’s a mug’s game of course – 2-2 (Sky Bet odds: 9/1).
Watch The Ashes live on Sky Sports, starting at 10am on Sky Sports Ashes on Wednesday. You can watch day one with a free NOW TV Sports Day Pass, while our Ashes Events Centre – the best of Sky Cricket’s analysis at your fingertips – is available on our iPad app.
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