First Down: Steve Smith one of several WR seniors with gas-in-tank
Welcome to the research season.
Soon some 50 million fantasy maniacs will thumb through volumes of scouting reports, stats and trends to put themselves in a position to CRUSH the competition. Questions, some rhetorical and some not, will be bandied about in an attempt to separate the loved from the loathed. Can C.J. Anderson thrive in Gary Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme? Is Tevin Coleman, battling Devonta Freeman and Antone Smith for the Falcons’ starting gig, worth the dice roll in the middle rounds? Was Martavis Bryant’s spectacular rookie stretch a mirage? Is it possible for Geno Smith to not royally suck?
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Dilemmas …
However, of all the characteristics weighed, none is more divisive than date-of-birth.
Every August, fantasy ageists seduced by ceilings purposely bypass the reliable services of elder statesman for the potential of pretty young things, this year an occurrence typically seen at wide receiver. In a game where unrealistic expectations are commonly placed on still developing commodities, these veteran misanthropes salivate at the mere mention of “upside,” an intoxicating and, often errant, reaction. Choosing to spend exorbitantly on a Kelvin Benjamin instead of conserving cash by drafting Steve Smith can, and often does, blow up in one’s face. Just ask those who chopped off a leg for Keenan Allen or Michael Floyd last year.
Though a few doddering geriatrics have slipped in recent years, a fair number continue to crank out useful production season after season, much to the dismay of their critics. What undervalued WR septuagenarians (Andre Johnson at his current 42.8 ADP doesn’t count) are primed for profitable 2015s? Here are my top-five:
Steve Smith, Bal (Yahoo ADP 102.5, WR37) – Smith may have made a cameo as a grazing triceratops in “Jurassic World,” but the 36-year-old is hardly fossilized. He slowed a bit down the stretch last season (WR45 from Week 10 on), but he still possesses the quickness and toughness to wreck havoc. Not to mention his stiff arm remains one of the league’s most vicious. In an aerial aggressive Marc Trestman spread offense he could easily best his top-20 WR line from 2014 (79-1065-6). Recall the Bears under Trestman chucked the pill 60.6 percent of the time last year. Some within the “expert” community are gaga over Breshad Perriman. The rookie’s muscular frame and fleet feet are certainly attractive. However, he struggled with drops in mini-camp and overall sports a green route tree. With the Torrey Smith roadshow of underachievement now playing in San Francisco and Owen Daniels also out of the picture, Smith Sr. and Justin Forsett are Joe Flacco’s only reliable options. The trash-talking target, who ranked No. 13 in yards per route run in a more conservative scheme last year, is primed for another 125-plus looks.
Fearless Forecast: 73 receptions, 1,011 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns
Anquan Boldin, SF (120.8, WR50) – The disrespect Boldin has received in early drafts is criminal. In his first two seasons by the Bay, the Niner hauled in 168 receptions, 2,241 yards and 12 touchdowns. As a result, he finished inside the WR top-24 in consecutive seasons. Still, members of the fantasy community continue to voice their concerns. Colin Kaepernick’s ongoing inconsistencies, Torrey Smith’s arrival and San Fran’s presumed return to the read-option have downgraded the receiver, a misguided viewpoint. He was teammates with Emmitt Smith his rookie season, a tie that shows how long he’s been around, but the long-toothed target will again crack the WR3 ranks, at a minimum. He remains a gritty, savvy, greaseman who can brutalize defenses underneath and occasionally on the sidelines. Combine that with the “tremendous strides” Kaepernick has made mechanically this offseason and San Fran’s issues on D, and he should again turn a tidy profit. Though the scheme has changed, look for the venerable weapon to rack appreciable numbers working mostly out of the slot, a position he posted a 73.2 catch percentage in last year. It’s mind-blowing he and rookie project Dorial Green-Beckham share an almost identical ADP.
Fearless Forecast: 80 receptions, 1,006 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns
Marques Colston, NO (116.6, WR44) – The number of targets up for grabs in New Orleans this season: 263. That’s what Jimmy Graham, Pierre Thomas and Kenny Stills, now establishing roots in new locales, accounted for last fall. Everyone anticipates Brandin Cooks, C.J. Spiller and Josh Hill to earn the majority of those looks, but Grandpa Colston will entice his fair share. Admittedly, he’s slowed a bit, struggled with drops (No. 76 in drop rate in ’14) and has been wildly undependable on a week-in, week-out basis in recent years, but he’s missed only two games since 2012 and has finished inside the WR top-36 in nine-straight seasons. For his flaws, the dude is a rock. The veteran revealed last month his 2014 decline left a bitter taste. That chip combined with more managed practice reps should greatly assist him in rebooting his career. The Saints have expressed a desire to run the ball more, but the increased opportunities matched with Colston’s red-zone usefulness imply he’s a screaming good deal in the later rounds. Drew Brees is his quarterback for crying out loud.
Fearless Forecast: 69 receptions, 917 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns
Percy Harvin, Buf (112.3, WR42) – To most, Harvin might as well be invisible. Once a highly productive Viking, his persistent temper tantrums, under-performance and myriad injuries have reduced his value to pennies on the dollar. Despite the sharp decline, the newly signed Bill isn’t sans confidence. In early April he boasted “The world has yet to see me really explode like I’m about to.” A Brett Favre comeback may seem less far-fetched, but the chances of a Harvin rebound are better than you think. For the first time in his career, he’s expected to shift around seeing action not only in the slot, but outside. With defenses focused on Sammy Watkins, he could see upwards of 6-8 targets per game. Yes, Rex Ryan and Greg Roman are Ted Cruz-level conservative and if J.P. Losman were still active he would probably run away with the starting QB gig (Tyrod Taylor?! Really?!), but Harvin’s gadgetry can still inflict damage. Touchdowns will be a rare occurrence, however, I could see him cracking the 65-catch mark. His days of 11-plus fantasy points per game are long gone, but a top-30 WR finish in PPR is absolutely achievable. Much younger (27) than he seems (4,000), Harvin is a low-risk, medium-reward plus-100 pick.
Fearless Forecast (14 games): 66 receptions, 702 receiving yards, 189 rushing yards, 4 total touchdowns
Steve Johnson, SD (123.5, WR52) – After an uneventful season in San Fran, Johnson traveled down the coastline this offseason in an attempt to reverse his fortunes. As a Buffalo Bill from 2010-2012, he was a highly employable WR2/WR3 in 12-team formats. During that stretch he suited up all 48 games and amassed 79 receptions, 1,041 yards and 7.7 touchdowns per season. Solid. Unfortunately, various nicks and scrapes combined with the Niners’ run-heavy scheme derailed his career shortly thereafter. Now expected to slide into the slot, a role vacated by Eddie Royal, Johnson is in a prime position to rediscover his mojo. Though a circuitous route runner, he possesses excellent separation skills and versatility. Already reportedly on the same page as Philip Rivers, he could entice some 110-120 targets in Mike McCoy’s high-efficiency offense. Keep in mind, Malcom Floyd turns 34 in September, Keenan Allen is coming off a sophomore slump and Antonio Gates will miss the first four games of the season due to suspension. In the blurry-eyed portion of drafts, there may not be a more attractive option. Don’t be surprised if he occasionally ventures into WR2 territory.
Fearless Forecast: 65 receptions, 698 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns
OTHER AGED WRs FAR FROM A LIFE OF RASCAL RACES AND SPONGE BATHS
Pierre Garcon, Was (119.2, WR49) – Do you trust RG3? That’s the $64,000 question gamers targeting Garcon are struggling with. His 2014 was largely forgettable (WR54 finish), but Jay Gruden is plotting to revive his wideout’s production. In mini-camp Garcon moved from “X” to “Z,” a position designed to prominently feature the pass-catcher. DeSean Jackson is still the primary downfield threat, but Garcon, who typically operates underneath, will routinely get his hands dirty. Recall he’s only two years removed from a 113-catch campaign. Many believe Griffin will improve measurably in Year 2 under Gruden. If that occurs, Garcon has respectable odds of landing in the 80-85 reception range. Don’t forget Joe Barry’s newly installed hybrid 3-4 defense is a major work in progress. Invest happily.
Eric Decker, NYJ (88.9, WR30) – In expert exercises the Jet has consistently gone in the 100-120 overall range, which is baffling. Oscar the Grouch smells rosier than Geno Smith, but the arrival of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Marshall should help boost Decker. Remember he was the 29th-best WR in the virtual game last year. In what should be an attacking spread offense under Chan Gailey, he has 7-9 TD potential. Bargain.
Roddy White, Atl (71.7, WR28) – Every year the humble wideout downplays his role and nearly every year he manages to grab 80 passes. This offseason, the veteran disclosed Atlanta’s desire to run the ball, a believable outcome with Kyle Shanahan calling the shots. Still, White is destined to carve out a prominent role, especially with defenses keying on Julio Jones. His Yahoo ADP feels right, but in several drafts I’ve participated in he’s fallen into the 100s. Absurd. Bank on another 75-80 catches, 900 yards and 5-7 TDs.
Vincent Jackson, TB (64.7, WR27) – Slated for action “all over the place,” including in the slot, Jackson has a reasonable shot to log his seventh 1,000-yard campaign in eight years. Jameis Winston is a giant upgrade at QB (As PFF’s Mike Clay points out, only 55 percent of his 138 targets last year were delivered accurately) and Dirk Koetter, who did wonders with Matt Ryan early in his career, is one of the more inventive offensive coordinators in the league. He scored only two TDs last year, but with Mike Evans drawing so much attention, that total was an anomaly. A final tally in the area of 70-1000-7 is likely.
Larry Fitzgerald, Ari (92.4, WR31) – Fitz reminds me of former 90s rock band “The Spin Doctors,” a former chart-topper who once filled arenas but now only attracts a couple hundred stragglers at a Tupelo casino. Despite a 98.5 percent on-target catch rate, complications stemming from option routes and horrendous QB play greatly hindered his fantasy contributions last year. However, there’s hope for the 31-year-old to regain owner faith. Carson Palmer, who he connected 32 times for 483 yards and two TDs with over six games (109-85-1288-5 16-game extrapolation), is back under center and the projected emergence of John Brown should alleviate pressure. His presence inside the WR top-20 is likely over, but he should deliver sound WR3 totals on roughly 110-120 targets.
Eddie Royal, Chi (123.8, WR54) – Reunited with His Smugness, Jay Cutler, Royal is optimistic he’ll rekindle the magic the pair once had in Denver. He raced out of the gates last season notching the 20th-best line among wideouts over the first five weeks (0.30 fpts/snap) but floundered after, limping to a No. 49 finish from Week 6 on (0.21). Still, the slot machine has generated some buzz this offseason. Pro Football Talk and NFL Network’s Albert Breer have heard the Bears plan to feature him heavily. Alshon Jeffery is the unrivaled No. 1, but rookie Kevin White may experience some growing pains. That happens and Royal will benefit, particularly early on. And let’s not forget, unless Vic Fangio somehow cloned Wilber Marshall, Richard Dent, Steve McMichael and The Fridge, the Bears’ overly generous defense will lead to increased opportunities. A similar tally as his 2014 effort in San Diego (62-778-7) is very possible.
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