Offseason Beat: NBA Landscape Survey
The Orlando Summer League is underway and we’ve seen a few nice performances from high-profile rookies like Frank Kaminsky and Stanley Johnson, but today’s column will keep the focus squarely on free agency.
With marquee players agreeing to deals, the focus has shifted to second-tier free agents like Josh Smith, Jeremy Lin and David West, as well as restricted FAs like Enes Kanter and Reggie Jackson (I don’t count LeBron James since it’s a foregone conclusion he’ll re-sign with the Cavs). We’ll begin by breaking down two of the two most important free-agent signings of the summer – LaMarcus Aldridge to the Spurs and DeAndre Jordan to the Mavericks. After that we’ll survey the entire free-agent and trade landscape as of midnight on Sunday.
Follow me on Twitter @Knaus_RW for news and insights throughout the offseason, and keep an eye out for Rotoworld’s NBA Draft Guide later this summer. The Draft Guide will have a complete free-agency breakdown in addition to rookie previews, mock drafts, rankings and tons of added content to help you dominate your draft.
LaMarcus Aldridge to the Spurs (four years, $80 million)
Aldridge’s decision to leave Portland for San Antonio was perhaps the most momentous signing in free agency, spurning the Blazers, Suns, Lakers and others to pursue a championship in his home state of Texas. San Antonio isn’t done. They need to re-sign Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili while padding the roster with ring-chasing veterans — they’re trying to convince David West to accept a minimum-salary deal, and failing that they may go after Carlos Boozer. The NBA’s other 29 teams should be very afraid.
Aldridge does not want to play center, so at the moment it appears that Tim Duncan will start in the middle with support from whichever big men the Spurs pick up on the coming weeks. Aldridge has been a top-20 fantasy player for five consecutive seasons, a streak that shouldn’t be jeopardized even if his touches decrease under Gregg Popovich. Consider that last year Aldridge ranked 14th in the NBA with a 27.6% usage rate, while the Spurs’ highest-usage player was Tony Parker at 23.9% (ranking 46th in the league).
San Antonio prizes ball movement and they won’t be as keen on giving Aldridge wing isolations on possession after possession — he made only 39.4% of his jump shots last season, the vast majority of which came from mid-range. That facet of his game won’t disappear but it should be deemphasized, which isn’t a bad thing. The potential for fewer shots should be offset by easier shots closer to the basket, which is good news for prospective fantasy owners. When a league scout was asked how the Spurs will fit Aldridge into their offensive system, he replied, “It will be so easy for them it’s not even funny.”
DeAndre Jordan to the Mavericks (four years, $80 million)
Jordan spurned the Clippers to join the Mavericks on a maximum deal, presumably convinced that he will have a featured offensive role in Dallas. It won’t be hard for him to get more looks than he did in Los Angeles, where his usage rate of 13.5% ranked 341st in the NBA (tied with Joel Freeland and Shawn Marion).
Just as striking is the fact that Jordan’s usage rate ranked 16th out of 20 players who suited up for L.A. last year, ahead of only Ekpe Udoh, Reggie Bullock, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Dahntay Jones. In the Clippers’ losses he had an 11.9% usage rate, but in their wins it was 14.2%. Oh yeah, and he led the NBA with ridiculous 71.0% FG shooting in 2014-15.
Chris Paul isn’t dishing the rock to DeAndre anymore and the Mavs’ current backcourt depth chart consists of Devin Harris and Raymond Felton. That’s a legitimate concern, as Jordan’s offense essentially consists of dunks off alley-oops, pocket-passes and put-backs. He had a combined 481 baskets off dunks, alley-oops, layups and tip shots last season. He had a total of 23 baskets off every other type of shot, with only 10 jump shots to his credit. Still, more touches will inevitably result in more points and a more heavily-weighted FG% for DeAndre, which should easily offset any additional FTs he takes (and misses).
Jordan should also repeat as the league’s leading rebounder as a member of the Mavericks. Tyson Chandler, who left for Phoenix in free agency, led the Mavs with 11.5 boards per game last season. Dirk Nowitzki ranked second on the team at 5.9 rpg, followed by Chandler Parsons (4.9), Al-Farouq Aminu (4.6), Rajon Rondo (4.5) and Brandan Wright (4.1). Those last three players have all left Dallas as free agents, going to Portland, Sacramento and Memphis, respectively. Simply put, there will be copious caroms for Jordan to collect.
Players who changed teams as free agents
| Player | New Team | Contract Years | Total $ Amount | Annual Salary |
| Tyson Chandler | Suns | 3 | $54,000,000 | $18,000,000 |
| Greg Monroe | Bucks | 3 | $50,000,000 | $16,666,667 |
| DeMarre Carroll | Raptors | 4 | $60,000,000 | $15,000,000 |
| Robin Lopez | Knicks | 4 | $54,000,000 | $13,500,000 |
| Wesley Matthews | Mavericks | 4 | $52,000,000 | $13,000,000 |
| Amir Johnson | Celtics | 2 | $24,000,000 | $12,000,000 |
| Monta Ellis | Pacers | 4 | $44,000,000 | $11,000,000 |
| Rajon Rondo | Kings | 1 | $9,500,000 | $9,500,000 |
| Kosta Koufos | Kings | 4 | $33,000,000 | $8,250,000 |
| Arron Afflalo | Knicks | 2 | $16,000,000 | $8,000,000 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | Blazers | 4 | $30,000,000 | $7,500,000 |
| Lou Williams | Lakers | 3 | $21,000,000 | $7,000,000 |
| Ed Davis | Blazers | 3 | $20,000,000 | $6,666,667 |
| Marco Belinelli | Kings | 3 | $19,000,000 | $6,333,333 |
| Brandan Wright | Grizzlies | 3 | $18,000,000 | $6,000,000 |
| C.J. Watson | Magic | 3 | $15,000,000 | $5,000,000 |
| Derrick Williams | Knicks | 2 | $10,000,000 | $5,000,000 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | Knicks | 4 | $16,000,000 | $4,000,000 |
| Paul Pierce | Clippers | 3 | $10,000,000 | $3,333,333 |
| Bismack Biyombo | Raptors | 2 | $6,000,000 | $3,000,000 |
| Gary Neal | Wizards | 1 | $2,100,000 | $2,100,000 |
| Thomas Robinson | Nets | 2 | $3,000,000 | $1,500,000 |
| Brandon Bass | Lakers | unknown | unknown | |
| Jeremy Evans | Mavericks | 2 | minimum | |
| Aron Baynes | Pistons | 3 | unknown | |
Free agents who stayed put
| Player | Team | Contract Years | Total $ Amount | Annual Salary |
| Kevin Love | Cavaliers | 5 | $110,000,000 | $22,000,000 |
| Marc Gasol | Grizzlies | 5 | $108,000,000 | $21,600,000 |
| Brook Lopez | Nets | 3 | $60,000,000 | $20,000,000 |
| Dwyane Wade | Heat | 1 | $20,000,000 | $20,000,000 |
| Paul Millsap | Hawks | 3 | $59,000,000 | $19,666,667 |
| Jimmy Butler | Bulls | 5 | $90,000,000 | $18,000,000 |
| Kawhi Leonard | Spurs | 5 | $90,000,000 | $18,000,000 |
| Goran Dragic | Heat | 5 | $90,000,000 | $18,000,000 |
| Draymond Green | Warriors | 5 | $85,000,000 | $17,000,000 |
| Tobias Harris | Magic | 4 | $64,000,000 | $16,000,000 |
| Brandon Knight | Suns | 5 | $70,000,000 | $14,000,000 |
| Khris Middleton | Bucks | 5 | $70,000,000 | $14,000,000 |
| Thaddeus Young | Nets | 4 | $50,000,000 | $12,500,000 |
| Omer Asik | Hornets | 5 | $60,000,000 | $12,000,000 |
| Danny Green | Spurs | 4 | $45,000,000 | $11,250,000 |
| Iman Shumpert | Cavaliers | 4 | $40,000,000 | $10,000,000 |
| Corey Brewer | Rockets | 3 | $24,000,000 | $8,000,000 |
| Jae Crowder | Celtics | 5 | $35,000,000 | $7,000,000 |
| Rodney Stuckey | Pacers | 3 | $21,000,000 | $7,000,000 |
| Patrick Beverley | Rockets | 4 | $25,000,000 | $6,250,000 |
| Jonas Jerebko | Celtics | 2 | $10,000,000 | $5,000,000 |
| Alexis Ajinca | Hornets | 4 | $20,000,000 | $5,000,000 |
| Kyle Singler | Thunder | 5 | $25,000,000 | $5,000,000 |
| Mike Dunleavy | Bulls | 3 | $14,000,000 | $4,666,667 |
| Dante Cunningham | Hornets | 3 | $9,000,000 | $3,000,000 |
| Lavoy Allen | Pacers | 3 | unknown | |
| Richard Jefferson | Mavericks | unknown | unknown | |
LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Kevin Garnett will inevitably join this list. It’s a delightful state of affairs for any fans who purchased any of these players’ jerseys last season.
Anthony Davis (five years, $145 million) and Damian Lillard (five years, $125 million) also landed max contract extensions, cementing their status as franchise players, and both guys are poised for their best-yet fantasy season — Davis is rapidly becoming the consensus No. 1 pick, while Lillard should flirt with top-10 value as the be-all, end-all of Portland’s offense.
Players who have changed teams via trades
Roy Hibbert to Lakers (terms undisclosed)
Tiago Splitter to Hawks (for ‘future considerations’)
Ersan Ilyasova to Pistons (Caron Butler and Shawne Williams to Bucks)
Lance Stephenson to Clippers (Spencer Hawes & Matt Barnes to Hornets)
Matt Barnes to Grizzlies (for Luke Ridnour)
Mason Plumlee and Pat Connaughton to Trail Blazers (Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Steve Blake to Nets)
Marcus Morris, Danny Granger and Reggie Bullock to Pistons (for 2020 second-round pick
Nik Stauskas, Jason Thompson and Carl Landry to the 76ers (for ‘future considerations’)
Greivis Vasquez to Bucks (for protected 2017 first-round pick)
Jeremy Lamb to Hornets (for Luke Ridnour)
Jared Dudley to Wizards (for future second-round pick)
Luke Ridnour to Raptors (for Tomislav Zubcic‘s draft rights)
Jon Leuer to Suns (for rookie Andrew Harrison)
Unrestricted Free Agents
| Point Guards | Shooting Guards | Small Forwards | Power Forwards | Centers |
| Jeremy Lin | J.R. Smith | Wesley Johnson | David West | Kevin Seraphin |
| Mo Williams | Gerald Green | Luc Mbah a Moute | Josh Smith | Amare Stoudemire |
| Cory Joseph | J.J. Barea | Dorell Wright | Jordan Hill | Jason Smith |
| Jameer Nelson | Leandro Barbosa | Glenn Robinson | Darrell Arthur | JaVale McGee |
| Aaron Brooks | Jason Terry | Tayshaun Prince | Carlos Boozer | Justin Hamilton |
| Ronnie Price | Alan Anderson | Jeff Taylor | Luis Scola | Cole Aldrich |
| Alexey Shved | Wayne Ellington | Lance Thomas | Andrea Bargnani | Henry Sims |
| Ish Smith | Marcus Thornton | Rasual Butler | Tyler Hansbrough | Ryan Hollins |
| Andre Miller | Willie Green | Alonzo Gee | Ekpe Udoh | Greg Stiemsma |
| Shane Larkin | Ben Gordon | Jason Richardson | Glen Davis | Chuck Hayes |
| Donald Sloan | Jimmer Fredette | Dahntay Jones | Quincy Acy | Earl Barron |
| John Lucas | John Jenkins | Landry Fields | Drew Gooden | Bernard James |
| Darius Morris | Justin Holiday | Michael Beasley | Reggie Evans | Lou Amundson |
| Austin Rivers | Luke Babbitt | Shawne Williams | Jerome Jordan | |
| Ian Clark | James Jones | Matt Bonner | Joel Anthony | |
| Hedo Turkoglu | Jason Maxiell | Nazr Mohammed | ||
| Jeff Ayres | Kendrick Perkins | |||
| Charlie Villanueva | ||||
Restricted Free Agents
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
