Fantasy Fallout: Fantasy Fallout: Gates Banned
NFL news in July usually amounts to unbearable puff pieces written two months before by beat writers who are gleefully sipping margaritas in Cabo. This July, however, the NFL decided to bless the starving masses with three huge suspension announcements. It was truly a Fourth of July miracle.
The suspensions of Rolando McClain and Sheldon Richardson are important for both real football and the growing IDP class, but the surprising four-game ban of Antonio Gates is the most fantasy relevant of the three. Though how the suspension affects Gates’ fantasy value is the lead story, the ban should affect several Chargers’ playmakers as well.
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It may seem unlikely a tight end who has been a top-12 fantasy option every year since 2003 and has eight top-four finishes to his name would deserve the tag undervalued, but that is exactly what Gates has been the last two years. Age concerns and Ladarius Green promises pushed Gates’ ADP all the way down to TE14 last year, and his ADP stood at TE10 this season before the suspension was announced. While Gates’ price was akin to highway robbery before the ban, his relative value is more questionable now.
The first issue for Gates will be how effective he can be on the field after the long layoff. Gates has been one of the most reliable tight ends in the league in his career, averaging over nine fantasy points a game in eight of his 12 seasons. Even in the lean years of 2012 and 2013, Gates managed to post the 13th and 14th highest fantasy points per game among tight ends, and he bounced back with a solid 9.6 fantasy points per game last season.
There is not much reason to think a suspension would suddenly take away Gates’ per-game consistency. Unlike holdouts or players with preseason injuries, suspended players are able to participate in training camp and the preseason. As a result, players who begin the year on the suspended list rarely see a drop in efficiency. Since 2000, 31 skill position players have served suspensions to begin the season. On average, those players saw just a .03 drop in their point per touch efficiency from their career average. It is a non-factor.
Age is a more pressing concern for Gates as he enters his age-35 season, especially as it pertains to playing time. Gates has already admitted he played too many snaps last season, and it is very unlikely he sees 72% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps again when active this year. Though the loss of snaps is a worry, it is not a problem if San Diego uses Gates the right way.
Gates’ most important fantasy attribute is his ability in the red zone, and that showed no signs of decline in 2014. Gates managed to convert 47% of his red-zone targets into touchdowns last season, which marked the fifth time in the last six years he has posted a conversion rate of greater than 45%. He is simply money in the red zone.
Though the Chargers could use him less in the middle of the field to keep him fresh, they are not removing thee most potent weapon available to them in the red zone. That touchdown opportunity gives Gates as high a per-game upside as anyone at the position and will keep him fantasy relevant even if his snap count decreases.
With his per-game value established, the question then becomes how much value does the four-game suspension knock off his price? The simple math would say four games of nine fantasy points each equals 36 points of lost production, but that equation assumes the tight end slot will simply be left empty while Gates is suspended.
Tight end is one of the easiest positions to stream in fantasy, and if done correctly can lead to results even better than what the top names at the position provide week to week. Even if the streaming options only net 80% of what Gates might have done, those points plus 12 games of Gates will likely still equal TE1 production.
This replacement player theory has an issue, though. While the replacement players may be able to replicate a large percentage of Gates’ production while he is sidelined, Gates will be clogging up a spot on the bench. The dead roster spot he will fill through the first four weeks is not as important as a dead spot once the bye weeks come along, but it still has value, and that value only increases as benches get shorter. It could be difficult to carry Gates for four games while trying to stream tight ends in leagues with limited benches.
The thought of burning a roster spot on Gates for four weeks is not the most appealing option, but the option will become more and more palatable as his ADP plummets this draft season. Gates was a good value before the suspension was announced, but with is ADP sure to drop, he will likely become a great one as the draft season rolls forward.
Gates is not the only player affected by the suspension. The easiest winner to peg is Ladarius Green, who has been long on promise but short on production through his three-year career. Green has shined when given targets, though, averaging 1.42 fantasy points on 59 career targets. Only five tight ends with at least 30 targets bettered that rate last season. One of them was Antonio Gates. Green has a ton of upside and is a good bet to post TE1 numbers while Gates is out.
The question is how involved can he be when Gates returns? Green only played 296 snaps total last season, and he spent 56% of those blocking. Green could press the issue if he lights it up the first four games of the year, but with Danny Woodhead healthy and Stevie Johnson in the fold, it is unlikely Green becomes a reliable weekly play when Gates is active. He is most likely a four-week rental I will pass on if (when) he jumps Jason Witten’s 11.09 ADP.
Stevie Johnson is a more under the radar winner from Gates’ suspension, but he is not a player to sleep on this season. Already the heir apparent to Eddie Royal’s vacated targets, Johnson now has the opportunity to secure meaningful red-zone looks early in the season. A big guy with a history of success in close, Johnson should be a player the Chargers use to help fill the void.
Danny Woodhead could also be utilized in the red zone with Gates sidelined. Though he stands just 5-foot-9, 200 pounds, Woodhead has shown a nose for finding the end zone in his career. He has 22 career touchdowns and has averaged a score once every 25.7 touches in the NFL. When given a big opportunity in the red zone in 2013, Woodhead responded by converting seven of his 43 looks including two “goal-line” rushing touchdowns. He should be a factor in scoring territory early in the season.
Among all the winners from the suspension, the biggest loser is Philip Rivers. 61 of Rivers’ 89 passing touchdowns over the last three seasons have come in the red zone, and Gates is responsible for 29.5% of those red-zone scores. Without his security blanket for the first four games, it is conceivable Rivers struggles against what could be four stout pass defenses in Detroit, Cincinnati, Minnesota and Cleveland. While that tough early start has to hurt his draft stock, the real takeaway is Rivers should be a nice buy-low option heading into a tasty matchup Week 5 against the Steelers.
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