Fraley: Top targets for Rangers in MLB draft; looking at past No. 4 picks – Dallas Morning News
Jerome Miron/Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
The Texas Rangers will have the No. 4 overall pick in the upcoming MLB draft. Insider Gerry Fraley has tabbed five candidates that the Jon Daniels (pictured) and the Rangers could select with their first draft choice.
On June 8, the Rangers will receive their consolation prize for a horrid 2014 season.
In the start of the three-day amateur draft, the Rangers have the fourth overall pick. It is their make-good for having the fourth-worst record in the majors last season.
In a sign of their recent success, the Rangers have a top-10 pick for the first time since 2003, when they selected Texas high school left-hander John Danks. Traded in 2006, Danks has all 74 career wins with the Chicago White Sox.
To make last season’s agony worth it, the Rangers must hit on this pick. They are more likely to go with a “safe’’ choice rather than gambling on a raw player with a high upside. The Rangers want a player who will move quickly through the minor league system and make a significant contribution on the major league level.
With that in mind, a look at the No. 4 pick past and present:
History
There have been 50 June drafts. Based on the performances of the players picked fourth overall, the Rangers can expect the following:
An 80 percent chance of adding a player who will appear in the majors. A total for 40 players have made it.
Baltimore right-hander Kevin Gausman, from the 2012 draft, is the most recent No. 4 pick with major league time. Last year’s No. 4 pick, power-hitting catcher Kyle Schwarber, is at Double-A in the Chicago Cubs’ organization.
A 28 percent chance of picking an All-Star. Fourteen players have at least one All-Star appearance. Eight have made multiple All-Star appearances.
Washington third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is the most recent No. 4 with an All-Star appearance. Zimmerman, of the 2005 draft, made the National League team in 2009.
A 20 percent chance of whiffing. A total of 10 picks never spent a day in the majors.
Condredge “This Way, That Way’’ Holloway never played at any level. Holloway, selected by Montreal in 1971, acceded to his parents’ wishes and was a two-sport standout at Tennessee. He played quarterback for 13 seasons in the Canadian Football League and is in its Hall of Fame.
A 4 percent chance of choosing a Hall of Famer. Shortstop Barry Larkin (Cincinnati, 1985) and outfielder Dave Winfield (San Diego, 1973) are enshrined in Cooperstown.
A 2 percent chance of adding a pitcher who wins 200 games. Right-hander Kevin Brown, whom the Rangers selected in 1986, went 211-144 with six clubs in a 19-year career. He also left behind a trail of broken light fixtures, holes in walls and unhinged doors.
The last decade of No. 4 picks
A look at the No. 4 picks in the last 10 drafts:
Year |
Team |
Player |
Comment |
2014 |
Chicago Cubs |
C Kyle Schwarber |
Left-handed hitter with power |
2013 |
Minnesota |
RHP Kohl Stewart |
Considered playing QB at Texas A&M |
2012 |
Baltimore |
RHP Kevin Gausman |
Building block for future rotations |
2011 |
Baltimore |
RHP Dylan Bundy |
Coming back from Tommy John surgery |
2010 |
Kansas City |
INF Christian Colon |
Has started at three infield positions this year |
2009 |
Pittsburgh |
C Tony Sanchez |
Appears to be backup, at best |
2008 |
Baltimore |
LHP Brian Matusz |
Found his niche in bullpen |
2007 |
Pittsburgh |
LHP Daniel Moskos |
Out of organized baseball at age 29 |
2006 |
Pittsburgh |
RHP Brad Lincoln |
In Triple-A International League for sixth year |
2005 |
Washington |
3B Ryan Zimmerman |
Has 1 Gold Glove and 2 Silver Sluggers |
The candidates
The Rangers have narrowed down their pool of candidates for the fourth spot. These are the leading candidates:
ALEX BREGMAN, SHORTSTOP
LSU
(Photo by Gerald Herbert/AP)
Bregman stands out in a draft full of quality collegiate shortstops.
He has received attention since his play with the Team USA under-16 group. Boston selected him out of Albuquerque, N.M., Academy in the 29th round of the 2012 draft.
As a freshman, Bregman was named a first-team All-American by several outlets. He dropped off the following year with both LSU and Team USA but rebounded this season. Entering NCAA tournament play, Bregman was hitting .329 with a .982 OPS. He has an exceptional grasp of the strike zone, with more walks than strikeouts, 33-20.
Most scouts believe Bregman could be a good but not great shortstop. He could switch to second and become an All-Star.
Bregman, the son of attorneys, gets high grades for intangibles. He has been the leader for each of his teams.
DAZ CAMERON, OUTFIELDER
Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy, McDonough, Ga.
(File photo)
The son strongly resembles the father.
Mike Cameron played 17 major league seasons with eight clubs and was best known for his wide-ranging defense in center field. Cameron won three Gold Gloves.
His son, scouts believe, could play quality defense in the majors right now. The son is not as fast as the father and may eventually move to a corner outfield spot.
On the flip side, Daz Cameron is a more advanced hitter than his father, a career .249 hitter with power. The bat makes Daz Cameron the rare five-tool prospect.
Scouts believe he could develop home-run power as his body matures. He is a line-drive hitter now, with gap-to-gap ability.
Cameron is another product of the powerful East Cobb program, in the Atlanta area. Cameron has signed with Florida State but has indicated he wants to start his professional career.
CARSON FULMER, RHP
Vanderbilt
(Photo by Mark Zaleski/AP)
A closer as a freshman, Fulmer joined the rotation midway through last season and helped Vanderbilt win a national championship. He was the ace of a loaded rotation this season, going 11-2 with a 1.97 ERA for 100 2/3 innings. He held opponents to a .197 batting average with seven homers.
Size is the concern about Fulmer. He is listed at 6 feet and 195 pounds. Many teams are leery of short right-handers despite the success of major leaguers such as Hall of Famer Greg Maddux and Jake Peavy. Oakland has done well with a short right-hander from Vanderbilt: Sonny Gray.
Fulmer features a mid-90 mph fastball and swing-and-miss curveball with a developing changeup. His control could always be average because of a maximum-effort delivery. Fulmer allowed 3.4 walks per nine innings this season.
Boston selected Fulmer in the 15th round of the 2012 draft out of Winter Haven, Fla., All Saints Academy.
DILLON TATE, RHP
UC Santa Barbara
(Photo by Larry Goren/Four Seam Images)
Undrafted out of Claremont (Calif.) High School, Tate pitched only four innings as a freshman in 2013. In a sign of things to come, he struck out Kris Bryant, now with the Chicago Cubs.
Tate was the closer as a sophomore and had 46 strikeouts with 32 hits allowed in 43 1/3 innings. He rose to prominence last summer with a strong showing for the USA Collegiate National Team. In 11 appearances, Tate had a 0.79 ERA with seven hits allowed and seven strikeouts in 111/3 innings.
Tate moved into the rotation this season and was 8-4 with a 2.08 ERA in 95 1/3 innings going into NCAA tournament play. His hits-per-nine-innings (5.66) and strikeouts-per-nine (9.44) ratios were good.
Tate is a power pitcher with a plus fastball to go with a sharp slider. There is a split as to whether Tate’s future is as a starter or reliever.
He also has a plus that is a minus to some teams. With 142 2/3 career innings, Tate was not abused in college. He also has a smaller body of work for teams to consider than most top prospects.
KYLE TUCKER, OUTFIELDER
Tampa Plant High School
(Photo by Eve Edelheit/Tampa Bay Times)
His brother is Houston rookie outfielder Preston “Bamm Bamm’’ Tucker. Kyle Tucker passed his brother this year as Plant’s all-time leader in homers. Hall of Famer Wade Boggs is also on that list.
Kyle Tucker, listed at 6-4, 175 pounds, has a different frame than his muscular brother. Kyle played center field in high school and runs well enough to stay there as a pro but is more likely to switch to a corner. He has a right-field arm.
Tucker will have to learn to take pitches up the middle and to right field. He is a pure right-handed pull hitter now. Scouts believe he could grow into a 30-homers hitter. Tucker hit .484 with 10 homers in 64 at-bats this year and was named the Florida high school player of the year.
Tucker is expected to bypass a scholarship to Florida.
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