The Daily Dose: Dose: Mad Game Like Skiles

For the second day in a row, we had some head coaching news in the NBA. The Orlando Magic hired Scott Skiles and held a press conference in Orlando on Friday evening.

The Magic have fallen in love with adding up-and-comer types and Skiles becomes their most experienced coach since Chuck Daly. Unlike my Thibs column from yesterday (check that out here), let’s just cut to the chase.

In his presser, Skiles really preached defense. He also said the usual stuff: he wants winners, he wants energy and blah blah blah. Reading between the lines, he did seem like he’s fine with developing his players, so that does bode well for the younger guys.

As far as the players go, Magic guard Ben Gordon said Skiles is “the best coach I ever played for” and Brandon Jennings also tweeted Skiles is one of his favorite coaches. Of course, that’s not what Stephen Jackson said back in 2012.

“To me, he was more of a college coach,” Jackson said of Skiles. “Me, personally, I need a coach that I can respect, that’s proven in this league and doesn’t mind taking advice from his players. When you have a great coach like Gregg Popovich, who asks about our opinion and cares about how we feel and what we think and what goes on off the court and at home, it’s easy to play for those guys because you know they genuinely care. He was a young coach, a coach that really hasn’t proven himself in this league as far as winning, so I saw a lot of things that I didn’t agree with that he was doing and we were losing at the time, so we never could work together.” Ouch. I’ll never forget this column from Grantland (check it out here). Plus, Skiles drove us fantasy owners crazy with how he juggled his frontcourt rotation.

So how about some fantasy breakdown? As a fantasy owner, I gotta tell you I really dislike Skiles coming back. To make matters worse, the Magic current projected rotation is a mess. We might as well look at it player by player.

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Victor Oladipo – Before the Skiles move, I loved VO and would have considered him in the middle of the second round for eight-category leagues. He was the No. 22 player in eight-category leagues after the break — he was still a third-round guy in nine-category, too.

With Skiles at the helm, the new coach might be a little apprehensive with using VO at PG. Oladipo logged 465 minutes at point guard last season, which accounted for 18.1 percent of his minutes. Skiles focused on his backcourt being great on the defensive end, so I’d guess for now that he might see less time at the one. He might see less assists, but Skiles mentioning the pace should increase may negate that. Also, are you worried about his minutes? He seems like a minutes monster for the next five years.

Oladipo is still the no-brainer first Magic player to come off the board and I still don’t hate the idea of taking him second. Right now, I’d imagine myself gunning for Rudy Gobert, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson or Jimmy Butler to name a handful. If you draft in a league with all Rotoworld saavy people, I think taking him at 20 is fine.

Nikola Vucevic – Skiles preaching defense is a little worrisome. Vucevic hasn’t been great on the low block and that seems to be an area of focus for Scotty. Here’s a look at Vucevic’s defensive stats from last year (per SportVU):

That’s not really that bad contrary to some of the big lines he’s allowed to his opponents. He’s only been 45.7 percentile in post-up defense, 37.1 percentile in defending the roll man in PNR, and was 43.4 on isolation (per Synergy). As those above SportVU stats also suggest, he doesn’t really have a major weakness.

Of course, good teams without an offensive superstar will need their center to be better. Obviously Rudy Gobert comes to mind, but nobody is expecting Vooch to be that good. Still, it seems very unlikely Skiles gets too wild and yanks Vooch even though he probably won’t be the best defensive center on his team. He’ll be an unsexy target in the early middle rounds.

Tobias Harris – He was by far the most discussed player in the press conference. Harris is a restricted free agent and the Magic are really in a pickle when it comes to keeping him. Last June, they drafted Aaron Gordon, who basically plays the same position as Tobias. The Magic grabbed him over a couple other bigger needs last year, so they’re likely committed to him. In other words, Tobias isn’t a lock to come back.

As for the presser, Skiles said he’s still been talking to Harris and he said he has a “great” relationship with the former Buck. Skiles made a lot of fantasy owners angry because he didn’t play Tobias (If you’ve followed me on Twitter for a while, you might recall the #TeamTobias movement). Now, we could be forced to start up the #TeamTobias movement again. We’ll delve deeper into Tobias in the offseason. For now, I’d say he’s a an early-late round pick around 85 or so.

Elfrid Payton – If there’s a winner from the Skiles fallout, it has to be Elf, right? A young point guard with some experience under his belt joining up with a pass-first point guard seems like a great idea. Heck, it worked for Brandon Knight and Jason Kidd. Well, besides the trade, but I digress.

One thing we all know is that Payton can’t score. That part of his game is a long way from being there. That’s all the more reason to like this move. Skiles had a career usage rate of 18.8 and he never had a season with a usage rate over 22. Meanwhile, he had eight consecutive seasons with an assist percentage above 30. If Elfrid can be more of a pass-first point guard, it could really help his fantasy value. Yes, I just looked up Skiles’ usage rates. I feel ashamed.

Payton was a seventh-round guy in nine-cat leagues after the break. He was really just a two-category player with steals and dimes while being one of the worst guys in field goal percentage. If Elf’s usage does come down and maybe he does more scoring in transition, he’ll have a higher ceiling. I won’t be drafting him in standard leagues, but he’s not a bad pick in the sixth or seven round in nine cat. His ceiling is appealing, but I have my eye on others.

Aaron Gordon – As mentioned in the Tobias section, you’d think the Magic have a lot invested in Gordon. You could argue the Magic game him an extended look to close the season because he had a 19.5 usage rate in 33.1 minutes per game in those two. Gordon averaged just 6.0 points, 6.5 boards, 1.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. If you thought Elf couldn’t shoot, Gordon makes him look like Curry. OK, not quite, but here’s his shot chart from March and April:

Yikes. The University of Arizona star made just 17.2 percent from beyond three feet. He’s an athletic freak and maybe Skiles was thinking of him when he talked about his team playing with energy. For now, Gordon is really going to have to impress this summer to climb into the standard league convo. Of course, Tobias not coming back would be huge, too. Gordon said before the draft that he wanted to play small forward, but he’s probably better off bulking up and playing the four.

Luke Ridnour – He’s under contract for another season and hopefully the Magic find some way to get him off the books because Luke could wind up taking some minutes away from Payton. Ridnour and Skiles were together back in 2008 and Ridnour played 28.2 minutes per game. Of course, that was a long time ago. Still, Ridnour strikes me as a Skiles guy and we can’t ignore him.

Evan Fournier – If Oladipo is going to get more minutes at shooting guard, that doesn’t bode well for More Champagne. He’s under contract through this season and the Magic have a team option next year, so it might behoove them to get him going. Of course, his deal is only about $3 million per season, so it’s not like he’ll impact their cap too much. He’ll see his value dip, which only puts him in the 20-plus league discussion.

Channing Frye – His four-year, $32 million deal from last summer is looking like a colossal mistake. Skiles wasn’t a huge fan of the stretch four and Ersan Ilyasova found himself in his doghouse for much of his time with Skiles. Frye was bumped from the rotation, but I’d expect the team to give him a look because of all the money they threw at him. You’re not going to want to target him in fantasy.

Moe Harkless – He just didn’t fit with the Magic. The team could really use a better offensive weapon to space the floor and Harkless really just gets to the rim. That’s usually a good thing, but Oladipo and Payton are already a liability there. He probably won’t make the rotation.

Devyn Marble – While he did start seven games, Marble is probably floored for the rotation. Get it?! Sorry. Anyway, he made just 31.3 percent from the field last season and is a little like Harkless. Orlando needs shooting.

Kyle O’Quinn, Andrew Nicholson and Dewayne Dedmon – They were somewhat fantasy relevant and maybe Skiles likes KOQ more. He does fit the mold as a rim protector, but the fouling issue will cap his minutes and upside. Nicholson is not likely to be in the rotation.

Ben Gordon – He’s 32 years old and that’s probably why he complimented Scotty.

Bonus: If you got the Tribe reference in the title, you are awesome in my book.

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