Looking ahead to Game 4: Warriors at Rockets
Previously on “The Warriors and the Rockets” …
I mean, what didn’t happen in the Golden State Warriors’ Game 3 evisceration of the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center? After two hyper-competitive games in which the Rockets may have come away with a 2-0 lead against any other team, the Warriors traveled to hostile territory and handed their opponents one of the most thorough beatdowns of the postseason so far, a 110-75 blowout in which they reestablished their status as title favorites. Houston went home with confidence that it could extend the series — it now looks likely that they will head out on summer vacation fairly soon.
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As usual, the star for Golden State was Stephen Curry, who has looked even more sensational in the playoffs than he did during a deserving MVP campaign. In addition to breaking Reggie Miller’s record for three-pointers made in a single postseason (in nine fewer games), Curry put up 40 points on 19 field-goal attempts, many of which were spectacular:
At the other end, the Warriors found James Harden substantially less aggressive than in the previous two games. He finished with 17 points on just 3-of-16 shooting from the field (and 10-of-11 from the line), a mark of both Golden State’s improved defense (with Harrison Barnes stepping into the role of primary defender) and the superstar’s decreased ability to knock down tough mid-range jumpers. Houston depended on Harden’s scoring in Games 1 and 2, so they understandably suffered without a superb showing from their best player. Nevertheless, the total effort from the Rockets was not impressive given the stakes and their prior form in the series. The Warriors played a complete game and likely would have won regardless, but the Rockets did not play like a team with full understanding of the urgency of the moment.
Three Things to Look for in Game 4
Houston’s resilience
The only good news for the Rockets right now is that they were in a similarly dire situation roughly two weeks ago. Down 3-1 to the appreciably better Los Angeles Clippers, Houston pulled off three straight wins, including two at home and an instantly legendary second-half comeback on the road to move on to face Golden State. If nothing else, head coach Kevin McHale can point to that success as proof that the Rockets have what it takes to erase a serious deficit in a series.
This challenge will be much harder, primarily because the Warriors are a better team than the Clippers, are up 3-0 instead of 3-1, and have two games left at home no matter what happens in Game 4. Plus, the Rockets were so ineffectual in Game 3 that Dwight Howard, an elite center who was out-muscled for a rebound by Stephen Curry, took it upon himself to call out everyone in the arena for a lack of effort:
All of which is to say that the Rockets will need to dig themselves out of a sizable hole to win Game 4, let alone the series. Yet the available evidence suggests that the Rockets do their best when they appear at their most desperate. Making it to the conference finals required dealing with several major and ongoing injuries, a failure to take advantage of an injury to Chris Paul, and a near-elimination. At every juncture, the Rockets came out on the other side stronger, even if took a bit longer than hoped.
It would be silly to predict that Houston will come back to give Golden State a serious challenge, because they have only really looked good in this series with Harden scoring 30 points on very tough, not sustainably convertible looks from the field. On the other hand, the Rockets beat the Clippers in Game 6 because Corey Brewer and Josh Smith combined for 29 points in a quarter. It could take another improbable performance (or four) for Houston to get back into this series, but that’s been their livelihood at times this postseason.
The Warriors’ will
Coming into the playoffs, everyone knew that the Warriors had the sport’s best outside shooter, a terrific motion offense, and the best defense in the NBA. What we didn’t really know was whether a team with zero players with prior NBA Finals experience had what is usually defined as championship form, i.e. the ability to fight through adversity and frustrations to beat a challenging opponent four times in a series. While Golden State still hasn’t faced an elimination game, coming back from a 2-1 deficit to dominate the Memphis Grizzlies three straight times (and twice on the road) qualified as a sign of their focus and determination.
Game 3 was more impressive than even that. After the game, Stephen Curry told ESPN’s Doris Burke that the Warriors considered themselves the desperate team on Saturday because of their desire to build on their preexisting lead:
From an outsider’s perspective, it’s a somewhat illogical statement — the Warriors definitely didn’t need to win to maintain the upper hand over the Rockets. But the best teams often take completely unreasonable stances on their status within the league, most obviously when clear favorites believe that the general public doesn’t respect them. Given the results, it seems apparent that the Warriors are not likely to fail to take any playoff game seriously. After all, this is a team that expressed a desire to improve after a 35-point win.
Of course, the reality of playing on the road while up 3-0 could prove to lessen their edge just a bit. Pay attention to Golden State’s energy level to start Game 4, because it could dictate if they get a long rest before the start of the next round.
Is there any way to defend Stephen Curry?
The Rockets have not done an especially good job on Curry in this series, often simply losing him off the ball or helping to the wrong player for reasons unknown. There are no explanations for such lapses, because Curry is the best shooter in the world. But the Rockets have proven unable to stop him even when their defensive plan is carried out effectively. Jason Terry was never likely to handle Curry one-on-one, but various others have failed at the task, too. When big men switch onto him, it’s a disaster. It’s not even clear if the Rockets have any options left.
If they do, they’re likely to require leaving certain players open, a big risk when defending a team that usually plays at least three capable shooters alongside Curry. While Houston will surely lament not having Patrick Beverley available for this series, the truth could be that there is no good way to guard Curry. Given his ability to pull up from anywhere inside of 30 feet, it’s possible there is no defensive scheme to contain him.
Where does that leave a team like the Rockets? As the Grizzlies showed in their two conference semis wins, the best defense on Curry may be to slow the game down during offensive possessions and hope that they end up in enough buckets to allow the defense to set. The Rockets like to play a lot of possessions, but they often look at their best when that involves getting to the line instead of firing open shots early in the shot clock. If nothing else, free throws help break up the flow of the game.
Curry was excellent against the Grizzlies over the course of the series, but he was not the gleaming fireball he has been against the Rockets. At this point, Houston will take anything less than that. Perhaps it’s in their best interest to focus on how put themselves in the best position to defend Curry and not how to defend him directly. Because they haven’t shown any ability to get that job done.
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Eric Freeman is a writer for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
