In hindsight, the events of December 28, 2014, now seem like a wild campfire tale best told deep in the woods. If you stare into the flames long enough, the outline of New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith emerges.

On that day Smith posted a perfect passer rating of 158.3 during a win over the Miami Dolphins. He did it while completing 80.0 percent of his pass attempts for 358 yards and three touchdowns, humming along merrily at 14.3 yards per attempt. All of it came against the league’s sixth-ranked pass defense.

Letting those numbers sink in too much is dangerous and possibly harmful to your health. They make little sense within the context of who Geno Smith is, or rather, who he isn’t.

He’s a quarterback who produced one of only four perfect passer rating games over the past decade. Yet in the same season he was pulled after throwing three interceptions over only his first eight pass attempts during a Week 8 loss to the Buffalo Bills.

He’s a quarterback who has offered fleeting moments of hope after being a second-round draft pick in 2013, doing so while completing 80-plus percent of his passes in three starts. Yet overall he’s connected on a lowly 57.5 percent of his throws and owns a per-game average of 185.7 passing yards. ESPN Stats & Info provided Smith’s stat rankings since 2013:

Geno Smith ranks since 2013: Comp pct-30th TD-Int ratio-30th Total QBR-29th (among 31 qualified QBs) https://t.co/mimIeDBiLU

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 20, 2015

Nothing about him says unquestioned starter. The Jets don’t have to give up on Smith already, because doing that with a young quarterback is never wise if there’s even a shred of hope for development.

But the 24-year-old has spiraled far enough that he needs to face a wide-open competition. That was presumably why Ryan Fitzpatrick was signed as a free agent. Right, new Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey?

Wait, what? Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Gailey stated Smith is the “unquestioned starter”:

Jets OC Chan Gailey said today his team has no QB competition and Geno Smith is the unquestioned starter.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 20, 2015

That’s Gailey during a Wednesday press conference after he looked at Smith, gazed upon his two years with slices of hope sprinkled among wreckage, and shrugged his shoulders.

Coaches, coordinators and general managers often say things they truly mean early in the offseason, and then once their employment rests with winning games, those words are forgotten quickly. Please recall a year ago at this time when the Jacksonville Jaguars were saying Blake Bortles wouldn’t start a game in 2014.

But right now Gailey believes in Smith, and even after 12 entirely respectable starts by Fitzpatrick during his only year with the Houston Texans (8.0 yards per attempt with 17 touchdowns and eight interceptions) a veteran seemingly signed for the sole purpose of pushing the incumbent starter won’t be given that opportunity. Gailey’s comments (via ESPN’s Rich Cimini) indicate he has consistently remained firm in supporting Smith as the starting quarterback:

Gailey says it was “never a thought” to have a Smith-Fitzpatrick competition in training camp. Get ready for Geno 3.0. #nyj

— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) May 20, 2015

That leads us to perhaps the most curious quarterback questions in today’s NFL: Exactly how bad does Smith have to be before his job is at least threatened? And how can he turn those brief flashes of greatness into something even approaching consistency?

Let’s get a better understanding of just how far Smith has plunged first and then address his central flaw.

Interceptions in bunches

There’s still some level of patience with developing quarterbacks, even in these fast-tracking 2015 times filled with the need for instant satisfaction.

It’s accepted that during the college-to-pro transition a quarterback could struggle at first with the increased speed as throwing windows close quicker, and potential running lanes are erased fast when the play breaks down. But always and forever one mistake leads to a short career if it’s done repeatedly: interceptions.

An interception is the participation ribbon of quarterback mistakes. Immediately it says “you were there, and thanks for trying.” There are other common mistakes that, isolated on their own, aren’t crushing. A poorly thrown ball turfed two feet in front of the intended receiver ends in a wasted play. But either another play follows or the punt team comes on to successfully surrender with a deep boot.

An interception is everything, all at once. A play is still wasted, a drive is killed, a scoring chance is possibly lost and the opposition could either score right away or be set up to with prime field position.

Smith has made that fatal error on a whopping 4.2 percent of his career pass attempts. For perspective, Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler finished tied for the 2014 league lead in interceptions (18) while throwing a pick on 3.2 percent of his throws.

Smith has been impressively economical with his interception chucking since entering the league.

At first you may choose to observe that Smith is either tied with or behind two Super Bowl champions on that list in the interception column. But there’s a far more important number to note.

Smith may have matched the Ravens’ Joe Flacco in interceptions over the past two seasons, but he did it while attempting 358 fewer passes. Looked at from a far more horrifying angle, that difference represents 13 games based on Smith’s career per-game average of 27 pass attempts.

What’s odd, of course, are his fleeting moments of brilliance. Again, this is a quarterback who has hit the 80 percent plateau three times as a starter in his still-young NFL career (29 starts). New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is fresh off a Super Bowl win, and he’s only hit that mark eight times over 15 years.

Accuracy is an issue, though not a primary one. And Smith has sufficient arm strength along with enough athleticism to escape pressure, as demonstrated by his 604 rushing yards.

No, the major issue lies with a core flaw and a skill that has to be natural. According to NFL Total Access (via the NFL Network), Smith will be the Week 1 starter:

Geno Smith WILL be the starting QB for the @NYJets in Week 1 (via @NFLTotalAccess) pic.twitter.com/aGf1kDqTG0

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) May 20, 2015

“He was just eyeing down receivers”

Smith’s sight leaves much to be desired. He has perfectly fine vision for use in normal everyday life, and to my knowledge doesn’t require oversized glasses stretching beyond the boundaries of his face.

But his football eyesight has always been lacking.

Let’s return to his brief appearance against the Bills in Week 8. It was a game that featured three rapid-fire interceptions because Buffalo defenders had spent a few hours with their film-room clickers.

They knew Smith as tipping his pitches and were squaring up to intercept his fastball on every attempt.

“He was just eyeing down his receivers,” Bills linebacker Preston Brown told Mark Cannizzaro of the New York Post. “We saw it on film that he was just staring guys down. When we know that we’re going to jump on guys’ routes, and we got some picks in the back end by just reading his eyes.”

Smith regularly becomes glued on one receiver, and only one receiver. He then often forces a ball to that single target his crosshairs are hopelessly locked on, frantically failing to progress through other available options who are comfortably open.

A prime example of those concrete eyes came on his first interception against the Bills.

On 3rd-and-8 from their own 11-yard line, the Jets lined up in shotgun. Smith was flanked in the backfield by running back Bilal Powell and fullback John Connor, and three receivers were spread out. The play was designed to hit Percy Harvin deep on a go route.

But since both Bills defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz and cornerback Stephon Gilmore have the gifts of logic and common sense, Harvin wasn’t getting open on a 3rd-and-long. Gilmore gave him about a seven-yard cushion before the snap. And with two deep safeties, there was nothing open up the middle either had Smith bothered to look.

Credit: NFL Game Pass

He was then faced with two options as the pocket was collapsing early in a game not yet out of reach (Bills led 7-0).

Smith could either heave a prayer toward Harvin deep to his left and blindly hope a cornerback whose eyes were directly in the backfield would miss the easy pop fly. Or he could squirt out of the pocket with his athletic ability to find one of the two short bailout options.

There was no defender within 10 yards of either Powell or Connor. Maybe they could force a missed tackle and get the first down? Probably not, but that possibility was a whole lot better than the alternative…

Credit: NFL Game Pass

Learning how to read an NFL defense is where the project begins for project quarterbacks. Yet it’s still a fundamental concept Smith struggles with even after two seasons.

He insists on sticking to the script of a play instead of taking what the defense offers. That’s where improvement has to begin with Smith. His natural talent will be allowed to shine through once he’s able to play fast but also with enough patience to scan the field. Only then will he find an option that presents the least danger.

The bad decisions will keep coming until he’s able to process the movement in front of him more comfortably. Like this one that resulted in another interception…

Credit: NFL Game Pass

Playing fast and thinking slow

Being a reliable NFL starting quarterback is grounded in how quickly a fast game slows down.

The bodies are always moving at the same speed, but as a quarterback how easily can you enter that zen state? How much of a struggle is it to win the mental chess match, and see what will emerge in a few split seconds? Can you identify when it’s time to hang tough in the pocket and take a blow or when it’s better to get creative while squeaking free?

The warp speed of football hasn’t mentally slowed down for Smith yet. He needs to not only use his eyes but also trust them. And using his capable legs is a fine idea too for a quarterback who had the league’s worst completion percentage when under pressure in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus.

There would be more hope for a career salvage effort if his problems weren’t mostly mental but rather more easily correctable. But for now Smith’s future as a franchise pivot rests in his eyes, not his arm.