Weekly Picks: AM's Week 38 Player Picks

Welcome to Week 38 of my player picks for the Yahoo Fantasy game, the final week of the 2014/15 season. All ten Premier League matches will take place on Sunday this week and therefore the deadline will fall on Sunday at 14:00 BST. Once Week 38 has concluded, the Rotoworld Cup final results will be published, so make sure you check back early next week as we crown our winning fantasy manager!

Before we start looking at the final week in detail I wanted to let you know that this will be the last AM’s Player Picks column. It’s been an incredibly enjoyable journey since starting it up on my YFF Assistant Manager blog back in 2009, but a number of factors have combined to bring me to the decision that this is the right time to end it. This will make more sense in a few months’ time, but for now I just want to say a massive thank you to everyone who has supported the column over the past six seasons – without you all reading, sharing and interacting it would never have worked and I will be forever grateful. And now, before I start crying like Gazza at Italia 90, let’s get back to the football.

Week 37 was an average one for AM FC, with the double-week not working out quite as I’d hoped. Disappointing returns from the likes of Olivier Giroud, Santi Cazorla, Jermain Defoe and even Alexis Sanchez left me on 139 points, dropping down to 189th in the overall standings. A top 100 finish is now unlikely but I’ll be looking to cement a respectable top 200 finish with a strong showing in Week 38. I hope you’re in with a shout of hitting your own personal target for the season, be it a finish in the top 100, top 10000, winning your private league or just finishing ahead of your annoying mate!

Week 38 Fixtures
Arsenal v West Brom
Aston Villa v Burnley
Chelsea v Sunderland
Crystal Palace v Swansea
Everton v Tottenham
Hull City v Man Utd
Leicester City v QPR
Man City v Southampton
Newcastle v West Ham
Stoke v Liverpool

Usually the teams to focus on in the final week of a season are those with something still to play for, be it the title, European places or relegation avoidance. A team having something to play for doesn’t guarantee the players from that teams will perform above and beyond those who don’t have anything up for grabs, but it does mean we have a far better idea of potential starting line-ups. While teams with nothing to play for may give some of their squad players a run-out, you’re going to see the strongest XI possible out there on the pitch for the teams involved in vital final games.

So who are these teams? Well unfortunately with the title sewn up, the Champions League places secured and two of the relegation spots filled, there aren’t many. We do have the rather unattractive duo of Hull and Newcastle, both desperate to avoid falling in to the final relegation spot, and so we can be sure that we’ll see full strength teams. Hull know they have to win to have any chance of staying up and so they should be on the attack, but this could play in to Manchester United‘s hands so attacking players from both sides could be worth a look. Newcastle may be in woeful form but they come up against a West Ham side in a terrible slump of their own, so you may fancy backing a few of John Carver’s players to wake up and help secure another season of Premier League football for the Geordie faithful.

Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton can all still finish as high as fifth, and the higher you finish, the later you’ll enter next season’s Europa League, so you’d expect to see strong XIs put out. However, they all face tough away games against in-form sides, so perhaps their players are best avoided. No other team has anything specific to play for other than league position. Everton and Crystal Palace can still secure a top 10 finish so they should field best XIs in their home matches, but there is still a chance of fringe players being given game-time.

Based purely on the fixtures you’d think Arsenal should beat West Brom, but Arsene Wenger is likely to rest a few regulars with the FA Cup final around the corner, the Gunners guaranteed third place and with many of their stars names looking tired in recent games. The same could be said of fellow finalists Aston Villa who have a decent home game against Burnley but are already safe from relegation and could therefore bench some players to avoid injury (or to punish them for the 6-1 shellacking last weekend). Chelsea at home to Sunderland is definitely worth a look with the Champions looking to create a party atmosphere with a big win before lifting the trophy, Leicester City should beat relegated QPR at home and in-form Manchester City at home to the Saints has the potential to be full of goals. Stoke v Liverpool could go either way, as could Palace v Swansea and Everton v Spurs, although I have a preference for the home side in all three fixtures.

So at the end of all that rambling I reckon you should be looking at players from Hull, Newcastle, Manchester City, Chelsea and Leicester. And possibly Manchester United, Stoke, Everton and Crystal Palace. And maybe Arsenal and Aston Villa. And with that in mind, click over to the next page to view my Week 38 recommendations.

Check in with Rotoworld.com for news, analysis and fantasy predictions all season

KEEPERS
Kasper Schmeichel – If you’re lucky to own Schmeichel at £1million then you’re laughing as he looks to be the top keeper pick of the week for Leicester’s home game with QPR. Even at full price I believe he’s the best value option.
Petr Cech – It seems certain that Cech will leave Stamford Bridge this summer and so it is set for the veteran stopper to make a final appearance in front of the home fans before the Premier League trophy is lifted. Nothing is confirmed at this stage so we await Jose Mourinho’s press conference, but I reckon he starts. Otherwise, Thibaut Courtois is obviously an excellent pick.
Tim Krul – Only for the brave, or those looking to save funds. Krul and Newcastle are without a win in 10 matches stretching back to February, but I don’t think they’ll lose this one with survival on the line and with the Hammers having struggles of their own.

DEFENDERS
Branislav Ivanovic – I’ll repeat what I’ve written about Ivanovic countless times over the past six seasons. Defensive solidity (blocks, tackles, interceptions) combined with a genuine attacking threat from set pieces (four goals and five assists this season) make the Serbian one of the most consistent fantasy performers in the Premier League. He should be in for yet another bumper haul against Sunderland.
Daryl Janmaat – Probably Newcastle’s best performer this season, Janmaat leads the way in Yahoo fantasy too with over 260 points at an average of seven points per match. That’s pretty consistent for a defender who rarely gains clean sheet points, and he can pick up double digits against West Ham.
Robert Huth – Huth has been a magnificent signing for Leicester and the giant German can sign off the season with another strong showing – and perhaps even a goal – against QPR
Seamus Coleman – Everton face a Spurs side “on the beach” and so I think they’ll edge the game at Goodison. That makes Coleman unbelievably good value at a shade over £8million, with the full back in with a decent shout of a clean sheet alongside his usual attacking contributions.
Ryan Taylor – A defender playing in midfield and taking set pieces for a team with something to play for? Say no more. It’s just a shame Taylor is a bit expensive, which is why Janmaat is higher up the list.
Gabriel Paulista – With Arsenal facing an FA Cup final next week it would make sense for Wenger to give one of this central defenders a rest, which would give Gabriel a chance to impress. His price is ludicrously low.
Vincent Kompany – Manchester City’s captain Kompany has had a terrible campaign but he should get the start for the last home game of the season and he’s price below £4million.
Scott Dann – This is a bit of a hunch really, with Dann hardly setting the fantasy world alight, but the defender is well priced for Palace’s home game with Swansea.
Matt Lowton – With Aston Villa shipping six at Southampton Tim Sherwood is likely to make some defensive changes, and Lowton would be top of the list to step in at fullback.

MIDFIELDERS
Theo Walcott – Walcott has looked bright in his two recent substitute appearances and has done enough to earn a start against West Brom. Steve is on the same page as me here with the winger also his pick of the midfielders in the Bargain Hunter, costing less than £5million.
Yaya Toure – Yaya finally woke from his season-long slumber with a double strike against Swansea in Week 37. Did someone remember to get him a birthday cake this year? Whatever the reason, the turnaround in form makes him an attractive option this weekend.
Mark Albrighton – One of the major turning points in Leicester’s great escape was the re-introduction of Albrighton back in Week 31. The winger has since scored 6, 10, 6, 27, 23, 9 and 15 points, grabbing a goal and three assists and generally being awesome. Expect him to continue this run of form against QPR on Sunday.
Willian – There will be no Eden Hazard nor Cesc Fabregas for Chelsea this weekend, so the creative burdon will be on Willian. The Brazilian has had a fine season, and while he isn’t always the most productive fantasy player he should have more opportunities to show his class in the absence of the more senior midfielders. Juan Cuadrado is also worth a look.
James Milner – I would love Spurs to snap up Milner on a free transfer this summer, with his contract at Manchester City coming to end. The 28-year old is a terrific footballer, a tireless worker and he’s been massively underappreciated and underplayed during his time at the Etihad. He’s playing superbly right now and should shine again in his last appearance for the club.
Moussa Sissoko – Sissoko has been poor for much of this season but Carver has continued to play the midfielder in an attacking role behind the main striker, and I have a hunch he’s going to finally put in a performance to help Newcastle save themselves.
Ashley Young – The most improved player in the Premier League this season? Young is certainly up there, with a series of impressive displays down the left wing, showing trickery and tremendous crossing ability on a consistent basis. He could be one of the players that consigns Hull to the drop this weekend.
Robbie Brady – Hull’s best player in recent weeks, taking set pieces and picking up a goal and a couple of assists despite his side’s struggles. Brady always seems to put in 100% and he’ll be trying his very best to push Hull to an unlikely win over Manchester United.
Charlie Adam – I’m not a fan of Adam as a player because of a series of bad tackles he’s put in over the years, but it’s impossible to deny the Scot is in scintillating form for Stoke right now. He’s up against his ex-club Liverpool and he’ll probably be on penalty duty too.
Wilfried Zaha – Zaha came off the bench to put in a match-winning performance against Liverpool in Week 37, scoring a goal and winning a penalty, so Alan Pardew must start him against Swansea. The Palace winger looks extremely sharp and is playing with a smile on his face.
Kevin Mirallas – Aaron Lennon is unable to play against Spurs this weekend due to the terms of his loan agreement which should provide Mirallas a chance to start. We all know what the Belgian is capable of on his day.
Scott Sinclair – Signed a permanent deal at Villa in midweek and due a start after coming on as a substitute in the 6-1 defeat to Southampton. At less than £2million Sinclair is a fine option for your bench.

STRIKERS
Sergio Aguero – Despite the high price, I’m not sure you can afford to be without the Premier League’s top goalscorer in a match that has the potential to turn in to a goal-fest. Remember, the Argentine loves the last day of the season …. Agueroooooooooooooooooo!
Diego Costa – Considering how much football Costa has missed this season I don’t think there’s any risk of him being benched for the final game. The Spaniard will lead the line against Sunderland and will probably convert at least one of the chances created for him.
Leonardo Ulloa – Ten goals in your first season in the Premier League is a very decent effort and Ulloa will be on penalty duty against relegated QPR.
Robin van Persie – This could be RvP’s last appearance for Manchester United and so Louis van Gaal should give him a start against Hull in the absence of Wayne Rooney. The Dutchman would take on penalty duty as well, so team news will be important.
Jamie Vardy – A first England call-up for Vardy in the same week his side save themselves from relegation – it doesn’t get much better than that. Expect to see the 28-year old run QPR ragged.
Romelu Lukaku – Spurs have completely run out of steam and so Everton should have enough to roll them over at Goodison. Lukaku has six goals in six games and should make it seven (or more) in seven to finish on a high.
Glenn Murray – Murray has enjoyed himself over the past two months and added another goal (albeit from a penalty rebound) at Anfield. It would surprise nobody is he added another at home to Swansea.
Gabriel Agbonlahor – There is a decent chance Christian Benteke is either rested or subbed early against QPR and so I’m with Steve in thinking Agbonlahor could be the way to go if you want a Villa striker this weekend.
Nikica Jelavic – We finish with Jelly, who is fit and will start upfront for Hull in this must win match. The striker costs less than £5million and will be on penalty duty, so he could be worth a gamble to fill your third striker spot.

So those are the players I’m considering for my Week 38 Yahoo team. Please make sure you check back here on Saturday for Ben Dinnery’s team and injury news column where he’ll run through all the important info ahead of Sunday’s deadline.

My own team page currently looks like this …

XI: Schmeichel, Kompany, Gabriel, Janmaat, Y.Toure, Sissoko, Walcott, Hazard, Jelavic, Costa, Aguero
Subs: Sinclair, Garbutt, Blackett, Gazzaniga

This is an early draft so things will certainly change (e.g. Hazard), but it’s quite well balanced elsewhere provided everyone starts. I plan to include a Leicester and / or Everton attacker which will require some chopping and changing, but don’t expect a complete re-design. Follow me on @nikarg and I’ll tweet an updated line-up on Saturday.

For the final time – how’s your team looking?

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