Joey Bosa Is a Terrific NFL Prospect, but Not on Par with J.J. Watt, No One Is – Bleacher Report
As a whole, football fans expect too much from draft picks. While they are the lifeblood of all 32 NFL franchises, the standards we hold high selections to can be enormous, which sets them up for failure. Some comparisons are even repeated so often that it becomes a part of a prospect’s identity.
This is what has happened with Joey Bosa, a 20-year-old defensive end who currently plays for the Ohio State Buckeyes. With the draft community’s eyes now fixated on the 2016 class, which Bosa is finally eligible for as an incoming true junior, it’s hard to find a conversation that discusses him without the name J.J. Watt coming up.
NFL Draft Scout lists Bosa as an end weighing 275 pounds and measuring just over 6’5″ in height. When Watt was a prospect, coming off his redshirt junior season with the Wisconsin Badgers, he was 6’5″ and 290 pounds. So, Bosa isn’t quite as thick as Watt was in 2011, when he was the 11th overall pick by the Houston Texans, but Bosa also is two years younger than he was.
Age doesn’t seem to be a factor in these comparisons, though; Pete Prisco of CBS Sports first linked the two when Bosa was a 19-year-old.
Joey Bosa looks a lot like JJ Watt and he’s a true freshman. Wow
— Pete Prisco (@PriscoCBS) December 8, 2013
From there, the two names spread like wildfire. ESPN’s Todd McShay made the comparison midseason during Ohio State’s national title run in one of his Insider articles. Around the same time, though, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller and Michael Felder threw out other names, Julius Peppers and Mario Williams, respectively, over Watt’s benchmark.
Bosa even gave ESPN’s Austin Ward an interesting quote as to why he believes the two have been discussed as similar athletes, stating, “I feel like I get the comparisons because I’m a big white dude, and he’s a big white dude playing defensive line.” An AFC college scouting director also told NFL Network’s Albert Breer he’s a “Patrick Kearney-type” and said Bosa won’t ever play at 290 pounds.
Dane Brugler of CBS Sports added another name to the list recently: Jared Allen. Still, these are the exceptions, as the rest of the media seems to have already intertwined the names of Watt and Bosa.
In some ways, they are similar, but there is no carbon copy of the 2012 and 2014 AP Defensive Player of the Year, nor should we assume there is going to be one in our lifetime. Other than their aesthetics, the largest reason for the comparison is the way they win as pass-rushers.
In the NFL, there’s really only two ways to consistently create pressure on the edge. You either convert speed to power, generating a great amount of force to push offensive tackles backward into the quarterback, or you bend the edge and run the arch, which is a speed and balance combination that allows smaller defenders to jet past heavier offensive tackles.
At 290 pounds, Watt isn’t a “smaller defender,” and neither is Bosa. While they are great athletes, their frames still have physical limitation. Watt is never going to come zooming off the edge; instead, he’s a player who runs a speed to power conversion and with strong hands and a strong base just beats pass protectors with pure strength.
True sophomore Joey Bosa vs STL’s 2nd-round pick Rob Havenstein on a Gordon run of -2. He puts on a clinic every game pic.twitter.com/iwym0iu1G1
— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) May 20, 2015
The play above is a run play, but it still flashes the talent I’m describing. Instead of going around his target, Bosa—gifted with the privilege of the talent to get the job done—decided to instead go through his man. He backed Rob Havenstein, the Wisconsin right tackle who is now a St. Louis Ram, about five yards behind the line of scrimmage, ruining the play for the offense.
The interesting thing to me about Bosa is this: I have no idea where he’s going to line up as a professional. Because of Watt’s size, he doesn’t even actually line up as an edge defender in Houston’s 3-4 defense, as he’s a left defensive end for them. In a 4-3 defense, though, the left defensive end (the role Bosa plays) is an edge defender.
The potential 2016 prospect is a good athlete for his size, but asking someone 270 pounds or more to drop into coverage isn’t going to be a pretty sight. For that reason, I think he might have to drop down as a 5-technique player in a 3-4 defense rather than as a pass-rushing outside linebacker.
He also doesn’t have the speed to play as a back-side athlete, which is typically the weak side—typically on the right side of the defense. Once again, it should be stressed that both Watt and Bosa are amazing athletes for their size, but you can only gain so much speed at their weights.
They aren’t going to chase down the back end of any stretch run play, so they are really strong-side (or left side) only players. Neither are really “space athlete,” which are what you’d like to have as 3-4 outside linebackers and weak-side 4-3 defensive end.
Bosa also has a good interior swim move that will make evaluators consider him as a player who drops inside to a defensive tackle or 3-technique role on passing downs. Last season, Jadeveon Clowney was largely drafted first overall due to his production off that one move during his career with the South Carolina Gamecocks.
So, Bosa is a strong-side edge defender, but only in a 4-3. There is the question of if he can gain enough weight to play as a defensive lineman in a 3-4, but when a team gives up size for speed in pass-rushing situations, is he’s a good “small ball” defensive tackle option? There’s a lot of nuance in his game that can’t simply be assumed when Watt’s name is mentioned.
As a run defender, he also is very good. On a pretty consistent basis, he is able to beat right tackles on the college level to get penetration into the backfield, not by his legs but because of his strong upper body.
Below is another example of a Melvin Gordon tackle for loss he had in the Big Ten Championship Game. On this rep, he discarded both the tight end and right tackle on his way to wrap up who would eventually become the 15th overall pick in the most recent draft class.
Another Gordon TFL. pic.twitter.com/WBNpTDPklD
— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) May 20, 2015
Against the Maryland Terrapins, though, he might have had his best play. On a third-and-short situation, he was playing right defensive end, a rarity for Bosa, in a three-man defensive line. The call was an option play that had the running back running to the left, right at the potential top-10 pick.
Bosa first baited the left tackle into leaning on him and then discarded the lineman with ease. From there, he engaged the pulling center two to three yards behind the line of scrimmage, used his long arms to keep him out of his chest while he read the runner, discarded the second lineman and then tackled the back about six yards off the first-down marker.
Wrong arm the LT, take on the pulling OC. TFL on third and short. pic.twitter.com/AezdRnmI5E
— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) May 20, 2015
Overall, Bosa is a fine prospect. He can’t even legally drink, and there’s legitimate reason to think he could be the top pick in the coming NFL draft as a true junior declaration.
With that being said, he has faults just like every prospect does.
He’s not going to be for everybody. With a fairly maxed out frame and young feet, I wouldn’t expect teams with 3-4 defensive scheme to be very interested in his potential, considering his market as a 4-3 strong-side or left side defensive end. He’ll be a great run defender and interior pressure player, but on base sets as an edge defender, he’s going to win with strength, breaking down the will of the right tackle or tight end slowly, not explosive speed.
He’s worthy of a top-five selection, and if he were added to last pool, I believe many would have ranked him as so. Still, the connection to Watt makes sense in some areas of his game, but his peak is much closer to the New Orleans Saints’ Cameron Jordan, who has had 28 sacks over his last three seasons, than a generational talent like Watt.
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