First Down: Taking Andrew Luck No. 1 overall isn’t outlandish
As the summer heats up, Yahoo’s resident Noisemaker will offer his hot takes on specific players, trends and strategies much discussed in Fantasyland. Naturally, whatever he forecasts, the opposite is bound to occur. Feel free to offer your two cents in the comments section below.
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The Buzz: Most within the “expert” community continue to suggest waiting on a quarterback is the only way to approach the position. As a result, Andrew Luck, despite averaging 27.5 points per game last season in standard formats, an output that bested No. 2 Aaron Rodgers by a full two points per game, sports a consensus No. 21 overall rank according to Fantasy Pros. Hey, it’s hard to teach old dogs new tricks. The groupthink perspective on QBs, however, is not only antiquated, it’s downright incognizant. What a bunch of neckbeard haters.
Why Luck deserves to be in the No. 1 overall conversation:
Safety. Stated time and time again by yours truly already this season, Luck owns arguably THE highest floor of any fantasy commodity. He’s yet to miss a game in three years, has averaged at least 21 fantasy points per game in traditional formats (4 pts/pass TD, 1 pt/20 pass yds) each season, mastered Pep Hamilton’s system, is loaded with more weapons than Ironman and scores across the board. Oh, and the former No. 1 pick doesn’t turn 26 until September 12. The best is yet to come. Not to be overlooked, he plays at a position best described as low-risk. Over the past six years the bust rate of QB1s (Passers drafted as starters in 12-team leagues that finished outside the position’s top-15), is a wee 23.6 percent. More “dud” prone positions logged considerably higher marks – RB1s 43.1 percent, WR1s 33.3 percent. Yes, the tier-to-tier dropoff among QBs is less harsh compared to RBs and WRs, but why chase rivers when you can hold all the chips?
Offense. Quiz 10 casual NFL fans what team led the league in passing last year and most would answer Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit or maybe Atlanta. However, the Colts set the pace in vertical attempts with 661. Luck chucked it 41.3 times per game completing a league-leading 78 passes for 20 or more yards and 15 passes for 40-plus. His 9.2 average depth of target ranked No. 6 among quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks. With the addition of Frank Gore, the Colts hope to establish more balance, but considering the club’s defensive shortcomings and acquisitions at WR (Andre Johnson, Philip Dorsett and Duron Carter), odds are strong Luck will surpass 600 attempts for the third time in four years. If anything, Gore’s presence should assist the signal-caller in reducing pocket pressure while aiding play-action execution. Recall last fall, Luck was under duress 36.2 percent of the time. Meanwhile he completed just 59.0 percent of his play-action attempts. His workload may see a slight decline, but an increase in efficiency is likely. Hamilton, whose system is ridiculously complex, will find creative new ways to exploit defenses vertically. Music to the ear.
Enhanced Arsenal. T.Y. Hilton, Johnson, Donte Moncrief, Dorsett, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, Gore, Boom Herron – the Colts are stockpiled with speedy, physical and reliable weapons. Hell, Ryan Lindley could be fantasy functional surrounded by that kind of talent. Ok, that’s a stretch. Given his new play things, Hamilton promises to “create paranoia” for the opposition by incorporating innovative wrinkles and permutations. As the OC recently noted, for the first time in Luck’s career he’ll have unlimited progressions, an improvement which should uncover and exploit mismatches. From a passing perspective, there’s likely no better environment in the virtual game than Indy’s.
Multidimensional scoring. In rushing terms Luck may be one-third Russell Wilson, but his useful contributions in the area are commendable. Over his first three years in the league, he averaged 298.3 rushing yards per season and totaled 12 touchdowns. That ground output boosted his overall fantasy worth by 14 percent. Similar to Rodgers, the Colt’s versatility only deepens the attraction.
King of Consistency. Luck is like grandma’s spaghetti, he’s good nearly every serving. In each fantasy regular-season contest (Weeks 1-13) last year, he registered at least 21 fantasy points, eclipsing 32 big ones seven times. And he accomplished that with fantasy cesspool Hakeem Nicks and petrified wood Reggie Wayne. Rodgers, meanwhile, failed to reach the 20 fantasy point mark five times. Luck’s two worst games came in the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15 and 16), but chances are he almost singlehandedly carried owners into the second season. For the reasons stated above, more steady contributions are in the forecast.
Fearless Forecast: If you’re debating between Luck, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Rob Gronkowski, among others, at or near the top of your draft, don’t fear the beard. Yes, streaming zealots will preach patience at QB, but instead of dealing with the waivers headache each week, it’s savvy to go with the sure thing. And you can always find production at other positions late (e.g. Tevin Coleman this year) or off waivers (e.g. C.J. Anderson last year). At some point soon, possibly as early as this year, Luck will join Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in the 50-TD club. He’s a unique talent blessed with a fantastic setup who’s just now entering the prime of his career. There’s room for his 0.56 points per dropback in 2014 (No. 4 among QBs) to grow. Even if his numbers remained unchanged or he experiences a slight decline this fall, he would still net a Round 1 value. If you’re after security, there simply isn’t a better option.
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