NBA Draft Lottery: Who needs the No. 1 overall pick the most? – CBSSports.com

It’s NBA Draft Lottery day, so by 9 p.m. ET, we’ll know who has the No. 1 pick on June 25 at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have the best chance (25 percent) after posting a 16-66 record, following by the New York Knicks (19.9 percent) and the Philadelphia 76ers (15.6 percent).

While the race for the No. 1 pick isn’t the only storyline — the 76ers can walk away with three picks in the top 11 if they’re incredibly lucky — it’s clearly the biggest one. And while there are four high-end talents teams would be ecstatic to land (Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, D’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay), having the No. 1 overall pick and your choice of those four is the goal.

But what team needs that pick the most? Here’s a breakdown, ranking teams from No. 14 to No. 1.

14. Oklahoma City Thunder: I mean, come on. They already have two of the league’s top five players in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, plus another guy who might be in the top 30 (Serge Ibaka). Do they really need another potential superstar? But could you imagine this team with Okafor? Ibaka is the perfect player to cover up all his weaknesses defensively. Imagine Okafor slinging crosscourt passes from the post to Durant for 3, or dishing off little dump offs to the oncoming freight train that is Westbrook barrelling down the paint. That would be an absolutely terrifying team, and the NBA is absolutely hoping that 98.18 chance that the Thunder stay at No. 14 overall holds true.

13. Miami Heat: Another team already in possession of star power. Chris Bosh is signed long-term, and Goran Dragic likely will be soon. Dwyane Wade is still a superstar when he plays, though wear and tear is taking its toll. Even guys like Luol Deng (who has a player option this offseason) and Hassan Whiteside are better assets than what some lottery teams have right now. Pat Riley would be incredibly lucky to win this one. And in reality, I think he’s more focused on simply not having one of the teams below the Heat jump them. If that were to happen, the selection would become the property of Philadelphia.

12. Indiana Pacers: The Pacers could certainly use the pick, though they already have a superstar — Paul George — for the next four years. Getting that one superstar in place is half the battle in the NBA. That’s why teams below the Pacers need No. 1 just a bit more. Plus, this team is likely a 4 or 5 seed in the East next season when George is all the way back. Having said that, they could really use a second long-term guy in place next to George, and they would be extroardinarily pleased with a shot at Russell, Towns or Okafor.

11. Utah Jazz: This starts the rung of teams without a superstar, but have deep, solid rosters that could be transformed by some lottery luck. The Jazz have a max-level player in Gordon Hayward, as well as a potential one in Rudy Gobert if he continues to develop. Those two, along with Dante Exum, Derrick Favors and Alec Burks, form the core of what could be a playoff team in the rough Western Conference by next season. From Jan. 1 on, the Jazz had the best defense in the NBA on a per-possession basis, as well as a winning record.

10. Phoenix Suns: Another team with solid max-level talent in place in Eric Bledsoe and possibly Brandon Knight to go with solid pieces in Markieff Morris, Alex Len and even T.J. Warren. But this roster could use an elite piece, especially on the wing. As currently constructed, it seems the Suns will struggle to get over the 50-win barrier in the conference unless Len takes a massive step and becomes an All-Star level player. They have a few extra first-rounders over the next couple of years from the Heat and Cavaliers, which will help.

9. Denver Nuggets: Their talent level says they should be in the same group as the Suns and Jazz, but organization uncertainty pushes them toward the bottom of that tier. Who will coach the Nuggets? Is Ty Lawson a long-term answer? Can they count on Danilo Gallinari? They have solid, longterm frontcourt pieces in Kenneth Faried and Jusuf Nurkic. Denver also has the Knicks’ pick next season in a swap (assuming that New York is worse than they are), which means that they could end up with another crack at a top pick in 2016 even if they succeed next season. That pushes them just slightly ahead of the next team on this list.

8. Orlando Magic: This roster actually is filled with solid young players. With Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon, as well as Nik Vucevic and Tobias Harris (who should re-up this summer as a restricted free agent), there’s a lot to like. I would say the odds are somewhat high one of those five eventually becomes an All-Star. Plus, it seems like Orlando is a pretty hot destination for good head coaches this offseason, as it’s been linked to Tom Thibodeau and Scott Brooks. With some incremental improvement across the board and a good coaching hire, this could be a playoff team next season. Still, they could use another potential high-end star for those guys to surround.

7. Detroit Pistons: Now we’re getting into range. The Pistons have a terrific coach in Stan Van Gundy, as well as a center who should become an All-Star in Andre Drummond. Reggie Jackson also might be a legitimate piece. But the Pistons will have to give him eight figures per season to find out. Those pieces are enough to push them up the list, but not exactly enough to instill excitement about the future as a contender. They’ll need to nail a draft pick in the coming years, trade for another piece like Jackson … or get lucky and move up into the top-three of the lottery.

6. Sacramento Kings: We’ve hit the point where all remaining teams really need a top-three pick. The Kings need it a little less because they have DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay. Still, this organization has shown enough turmoil in its two years with Vivek Ranadive in charge it could use a bit of luck. I don’t have much faith in this front office’s ability to nail a draft pick, so the higher they go and the better chances they have of getting a more ready-made elite player, the better.

5. Philadelphia 76ers: The Sixers need talent, period. But they’re No. 5 in these rankings because of their frontcourt glut. Towns and Okafor are likely to be the first two picks, which means that realistically the Sixers could stay at No. 3 or fall back to No. 4 and get a guy who is a better fit for their roster at guard. Either Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay are potential
All-Stars in the backcourt, and would help frontcourt players Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid develop offensively. Yeah, I’m sure the Sixers would like to have the No. 1 pick because it would give them bargaining power. But more important is getting lucky and picking up one of their two other potential picks in the lottery in what will be a stronger draft than 2016.

4. Charlotte Hornets: This roster is pretty bereft of high-end talent signed long-term right now. Al Jefferson has a player option allowing him to opt out next offseason. Kemba Walker is signed long-term, but he hasn’t proven a top-10 point guard. Noah Vonleh and Cody Zeller don’t look like stars in the frontcourt, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist — as much as I like him — is probably a really good role player. They really need one guy who they can build around, or they’ll continue to flutter between 30 and 40 wins.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves: Their best fit Towns, period. Clogging the lane for guys like Ricky Rubio and Andrew Wiggins isn’t preferable, so Okafor is not an ideal fit. Russell would fit in between Rubio and Wiggins from a spacing perspective, but he needs the ball a lot as a lead guard. Mudiay doesn’t fit with Rubio. So getting Towns is pretty important, and he’d really accelerate their rebuild as another potential All-Star and a near-perfect fit. Having said that, the next two teams on this list are in even more dire straits.

2. Los Angeles Lakers: Unless they show absolutely zero improvement next season or get lucky in the lottery, the Lakers will not have their first-round pick at their disposal. Or, if they’re really unlucky Tuesday night, they could lose their pick this season to Philadelphia and wind up with a pick in the much weaker 2016 draft. Also, if this pick transfers in 2015, it would start the clock on the first rounder they owe Orlando from the Dwight Howard trade, which would become only a top-five protected pick in what looks like a very strong 2017 draft. And this comes on a roster that needs as much as talent as it can find, as only Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson look like long-term pieces. If the Lakers are going to draft their next superstar, it needs to come in this draft. So yeah, they would like to have their pick of the best prospect on their board. But most important for them is keeping their pick.

1. New York Knicks: Unlike the Lakers, who have a second chance to keep their top-three protected pick next year if they struggle mightily again, we know that the Knicks will not have their pick. It will transfer to Denver (compensation for the Carmelo Anthony trade) or Toronto (in the Andrea Bargnani deal) depending where they finish in relation to the Nuggets. Anthony isn’t getting any younger, and it’s hard to look at this roster beyond him and say there is another piece who will be on their next playoff team. They need to knock this one out of the park, and the best place for that to happen is with the No. 1 overall pick. Towns or Okafor would look great in the triangle, and would team well with Anthony in trying to turn this franchise around in a hurry.

Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow are two players lottery teams will want. (USATSI)

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