NBA Conference Finals: Preview and Predictions – New York Times
By BENJAMIN HOFFMAN
May 18, 2015
Phil Jackson, the president of the Knicks, asked on Twitter how things were going for 3-point oriented teams. He claimed it was an innocent question, but it could have been taken as snark directed at teams like the Rockets, Warriors, Hawks and Cavaliers, all of which were struggling in the conference semifinals.
That was on May 10. Now the conference finals have arrived, those are the four teams left alive, and there is a definitive answer to Jackson’s question: 3-point oriented teams are doing quite well.
Western Conference
Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets
The Warriors, a 67-win team in the regular season, have proven their combination of outside shooting and tough defense to be playoff-capable and enter the conference finals as the odds-on favorites to win the N.B.A. title, according to most sports books. After much speculation that they would have to change their style to succeed in the playoffs, Golden State has instead taken even more 3-pointers — 29.9 a game in the playoffs versus 27 a game in the regular season — and while they have been slightly less efficient, they are getting the job done.
The Rockets came into the playoffs as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference but despite getting this far, the gap between them and Golden State appears to have widened. James Harden, who was a one-man show in the regular season — Dwight Howard missed much of it because of injury — was mostly a spectator as Houston stormed back against the imploding Los Angeles Clippers in Game 6 of the semifinals, and the team is now quickly trying to catch its breath after a Game 7 win before taking on the N.B.A.’s best team.
If the regular season is any indication, this series may not be close. The Warriors were 4-0 against Houston and won the games by an average of nearly 13 points. The equation changes with Howard at something close to full-strength, but Golden State has Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green to deal with Houston’s center, and some combination of Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala and Stephen Curry to try to stop Harden.
All season, the Warriors succeeded not just because of their outside shooting but also because they had the league’s best, and most efficient, defense. Coach Steve Kerr took what had been a disorganized mess under Mark Jackson and shaped it into something special. Everyone expects the flash of their offense, but it is the grit of their defense that Houston should be most afraid of.
Pick: Warriors in 5
Eastern Conference
Atlanta Hawks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
When LeBron James agreed to come home to Cleveland, the Cavaliers became a favorite to make it to the conference finals, almost regardless of who was playing with him. When Kevin Love was traded to the team to go with James and Kyrie Irving, it looked like even more of a sure thing. A rough start to the season brought the James detractors out of the woodwork, where they spoke of his diminishing skills and criticized him as a leader and even as an executive, as he took the blame for the team’s imperfect roster.
Now that James is playing in the conference finals for the fifth consecutive year, despite limited contributions in the playoffs from Love and Irving, it will be curious to see if anyone remembers to take back their criticism.
Reshaped as the season went along by trades that gave the team a trio of former Knicks — Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert — the Cavaliers are hardly a defensive powerhouse, but they now do enough to let the team’s offense churn out victories.
While the Cavaliers were the talk of the preseason, the unexpected Hawks became the team to beat in the East almost as soon as the season started. Playing a team-oriented style that many likened to the San Antonio Spurs — Coach Mike Budenholzer spent 18 years with the Spurs before taking over Atlanta — the Hawks sent four players to the All-Star game and had such a huge lead in the Eastern Conference standings that they coasted for much of the regular season. The team had six players average more than 10 points a game, and four players average more than 3 assists a game. They were a top-10 team on offense and defense, and their key players are all healthy.
This series will not have the blistering pace of the Western Conference finals, as the Hawks and Cavaliers were 15th and 25th in the N.B.A. in pacing this season, but there should be no shortage of precision passing, long-range shooting, and at least a few moments for an unheralded star like Al Horford to show off his skills against the celebrated James.
But for all of the talk of the Spurs’ system, its tremendous success has come with Tim Duncan and Tony Parker on the floor. The Hawks have built something special in a short amount of time, and could be a great team for years to come under Budenholzer, but the team’s four All-Stars have yet to shine as bright as we all know James and Irving are capable of.
Some will try to turn this series into the team versus the superstar, but that is denying James his status as a team-oriented star on the level of Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson. His critics may be right that his decline has begun, but the gap was so wide between him and everyone else, that there is no reason to doubt him yet.
Pick: Cavaliers in 6
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