2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Philadelphia Eagles Stars – Bleacher Report Head coach Chip Kelly’s philosophy anyone can operate his offense has dramatically rearranged the configuration of the Philadelphia Eagles’ stars. Zach Ertz, Jordan Matthews and DeMarco Murray are left to sort out Kelly’s box of lit fuses after Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin dispersed to far-off fantasy football outposts. Calling Kelly’s outlook unorthodox is redundant in matters both on and off the field. His approach is so unique, only time and success will confirm it’s worth emulating. It’s unheard of to see such a reshuffling from quarterback on down of a third-ranked scoring offense—eighth in standard fantasy scoring. It’s now moot to speculate if each move was part of a larger plan to score eventual Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota in draft. The Eagles must move on with the pieces set for another explosive season in Kelly’s revolutionary offense. Players are shown in ascending order from least to most valuable from a fantasy perspective in 2015. Tim Tebow, QB He’s baaaaaaack. Although Tebow is a terrible quarterback by conventional NFL standards, he’s actually serviceable in fantasy given his ability to accumulate rushing yards and touchdowns. If any coach is willing to see a guy who hasn’t played a down of professional football in two seasons take the reins of his offense, it’s Chip Kelly. Still, I wouldn’t count on Tebow even making the game-day roster. Rasheed Bailey, WR Bailey, a Philadelphia native, is no doubt already a fan favorite, coming to the Eagles undrafted from the Division III Delaware Valley Rams. The 6’2”, 205-pounder might have a shot at making the regular-season roster given the instability at wide receiver. Miles Austin, WR Austin joined the exodus from Cleveland, finding sanctuary in the Eagles’ prolific offense. The injury-prone nine-year veteran isn’t likely to gain much advantage from the new scenery, however. The Pro Bowler projects as a reserve for the Eagles, meaning he’s irrelevant in fantasy, barring multiple misfortunes ahead of him on the depth chart. Devante Davis, WR Davis has the size, but lacked the speed to be a serious draft prospect, according to Lance Zierlein of NFL.com. Philadelphia signed the undrafted UNLV Running Rebel the same day the draft concluded. There are plenty of holes in the Eagles depth chart at wide receiver, and the 6’3″, 220-pound dark horse is a favorite to take the No. 5 slot. Mark Sanchez, QB Sanchez played Nick Foles right out of town, starting the last eight games in 2014. He managed the best passer rating in his six-year career (88.4), topping out with a 268.7 yards-per-game average. His 14 touchdowns to 11 interceptions is a disturbing number, one likely to keep him behind Sam Bradford unless injuries sideline the presumptive starter. Sanchez could make a decent stash in deeper leagues, but he’ll provide only average returns if he reclaims Philadelphia’s QB1 spot. In a run-first offense, a blocking wideout like Cooper is an asset. The five-year veteran devolved as a pass-catcher—with 55 receptions for 577 yards and three touchdowns—but excelled as a blocker, tied for eighth among wide receivers, per Pro Football Focus. Although Jeremy Maclin is gone, the Eagles spent a first-rounder on Nelson Agholor, after drafting Jordan Matthews in the second and Josh Huff in the third last season. Philadelphia also signed nine-year veteran Miles Austin, who’s made a living as a reliable possession receiver. If Cooper only sees playing time in running situations, his fantasy value dips from little to none in 2015. All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 25 receptions for 250 yards and two touchdowns. Chip Kelly gradually refocused Celek from a receiving to blocking tight end over the past two seasons. The eight-year veteran averaged 59.3 receptions in four seasons starting under Andy Reid, but dropped to 32 in both 2013 and 2014. It’s a paltry contribution from a fantasy perspective, but significant because Celek’s superior blocking skills keep Zach Ertz on the sidelines. Celek graded higher in both run- and pass-blocking in 2014. According to Pro Football Focus, he eclipsed Ertz’s playing time by 224 snaps. Don’t expect Celek to produce enough to make him worth owning in 2015, rather just enough to frustrate Ertz owners. All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 30 receptions, 375 yards and three touchdowns. Jimmy Kempski of Philly Voice tweeted the Eagles are very high on Huff’s prospects in 2015: I’ve heard that the Eagles think Josh Huff has more upside than Jordan Matthews. — Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) March 9, 2015 This assessment probably has more to do with Huff’s time with Chip Kelly at Oregon, as opposed to a disappointing rookie effort in 2014. The third-rounder failed to win the No. 2 job over Riley Cooper, but did contribute a touchdown on special teams. Huff’s skills and pedigree are indications Philadelphia’s WR2 job should be his for the taking in 2015, despite a height disadvantage (5’11”) relative to Cooper (6’3”). Nolan Nawrocki of NFL.com praised his blocking tenacity coming out of college, which further raises Huff’s stock. He should still be considered a late-round sleeper or dynasty stash given such a small sample of work in his rookie season, but Huff appears to be on the cusp of more opportunity in one of the league’s most potent offenses. All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 35 receptions for 400 yards and three touchdowns. Chip Kelly said Sproles needs to be a bigger part of the offense than the 29 percent of snaps he saw in 2014, according to Zach Berman of The Inquirer. The Pro Bowler contributed eight touchdowns on offense and special teams combined. The nine-year veteran is an especially dangerous weapon as a receiver out of the backfield in a spread offense, as he noted in a post on The Players’ Tribune. “It’s a different game now than it was in 2005 with coaches like Sean Payton and Chip Kelly, who I’ve played for, spreading things out. Teams and scouts see how I’ve been used and now they’re trying to get guys like me—smaller guys who can make noise in space.” The problem is Sproles caught the fewest balls in his career last season (40) since 2008 (29). And now he must further share the backfield with free-agent acquisitions Ryan Mathews and DeMarco Murray. The 31-year-old will be a flex at best even in PPR leagues for 2015. All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 50 carries for 300 yards and two touchdowns, plus 50 receptions for 450 yards and three touchdowns adding one score on special teams. It’s debatable whether Chip Kelly acquired Bradford as currency in his futile attempts to trade up in the first round to draft Marcus Mariota, or if Bradford was Kelly’s guy all along. ESPN’s Chris Mortensen tweeted in favor of the former the night before the draft: Eagles acquired Bradford to be their QB. No trade pawn. He’d only sign ext w Philly with no-trade clause. Wants to play for Chip & Shurmur — Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) April 28, 2015 Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio claimed otherwise the morning after. “Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the Eagles offered the following to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the first pick in the draft: the 20th pick in this year’s draft; Philly’s first-round pick in 2016; quarterback Sam Bradford; and another player on the roster.” MMQB’s Peter King put the debate to rest…sort of. “The Eagles, as Kelly said Thursday night in Philadelphia, never offered players as part of a package to obtain Mariota. In fact, The MMQB learned Thursday night that Kelly never offered the widely rumored packages of either three first-round picks or two first-round picks and Sam Bradford.” The problem with King’s report is he fortified it by explaining Tennessee’s reluctance to accept even the most exorbitant trade offer. It appears far more likely the Titans jilted Philadelphia’s offer(s), leaving the Eagles backpedaling in damage control. Now Kelly as head coach must convince Bradford that his attempts to trade him as de facto general manager weren’t legitimate. Awkwaaaaard. If Kelly is successful and Bradford stays healthy, the injury-plagued four-year veteran is poised for a comeback season. Former St. Louis Rams head coach and current New York Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo praised Bradford on 97.5 The Fanatic’s Anthony Gargano and The Morning Show (h/t: Zach Berman of The Inquirer). “Trust me when I tell you he’s got all the skills, and I keep going back to the fierce competitor because I believe elite quarterbacks in this league have that.” If Bradford isn’t buying the company line or suffers another setback, Kelly’s offensive juggernaut is left in the hands of has-beens: Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley and Tim Tebow. Bradford owners can reap huge returns in what is currently a contract year, but make sure you have a Plan B in case he misses chunks of time again in 2015. Note Philadelphia offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur occupied the same role for the Rams in 2010 when Bradford won the Associated Press NFL offensive rookie of the year. All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 4,050 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Philadelphia signed Mathews in March after Frank Gore removed his name from consideration. The notion of a three-headed attack including Darren Sproles and DeMarco Murray attracted the 2010 first-round pick of the San Diego Chargers, according to Jeff McLane of The Inquirer. The hierarchy of Chip Kelly’s three-piece rushing scheme typically includes a foundational lead back, a solid No. 2 to spell the lead and a change-of-pace when desired. With Murray claiming RB1 and Sproles the obvious scat-back, Mathews will assume crumb-snatching duties from a fantasy point of view unless Murray comes up injured. Mathews is an unquestionable handcuff for Murray owners and almost certainly the most valuable backup running back in the league. His average draft position is a bit elevated as a result, but even non-Murray owners should consider the five-year veteran if he drops past the ninth or tenth round. The Pro Bowler comes with notable injury risk, starting just six games for the Chargers in 2014. The reduced workload with the Eagles should soften injury concerns. All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 125 carries for 563 yards and three touchdowns, plus 20 receptions for 150 yards. The Eagles spent 2015’s first-round pick on Agholor, a Southern Cal product expected to take pressure off Jordan Matthews in the absence of Jeremy Maclin. Jon Moore of RotoViz cautiously compared Agholor to Odell Beckham Jr. in terms of skills and opportunity in an interview with Matt Freeman on RotoViz Radio (Episode 59). He’s athletic enough for his size, with good agility. He was dynamic in the special teams game. I’m not going to suggest he’s going to have a rookie season like Odell Beckham did…[but] I think there’s a good chance Agholor ends up being one of those great complementary pieces on an above-average offense. Size is the biggest question regarding Agholor’s NFL prospects. At 6’0”, 198 pounds, he was projected to fit in a slot role, according to Lance Zierlein of NFL.com. Personnel conflicts could be looming considering Matthews worked out of the slot 92 percent of the time in 2014, according to Jeff McLane of The Inquirer. Fortunately, Chip Kelly is not the conventional type, so the two receivers are far more likely to enhance the other’s ability, not detract. McLane reported Kelly credited Agholor as an “inside, outside guy.” Those expecting Agholor to put up Maclin-like numbers in 2015 will be disappointed. But the rookie will make an excellent mid-round pickup, especially in PPR formats. All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 65 receptions for 950 yards and five touchdowns Ertz is working towards a breakout season in 2015, enlisting the advice and mentoring of Ronnie Lott, Tony Gonzalez and offensive line guru Hudson Houck, he told Jeff McLane of The Inquirer. [Lott] was like, ‘You had a good first two years, but what’s separating you from being a great tight end?’ And I said, ‘Well, I need to consistently be on the field more.’ And he said, ‘Well, what’s keeping you off the field?’ And I said, ‘Just consistently blocking.’ He’s like, ‘This offseason, why don’t you reach out to someone to help you with your blocking?’ I was like, ‘Wow, why did I not ever think of this?’ Brent Celek took 71 percent of Philadelphia’s snaps in 2014—to Ertz’s 51—because he’s a higher-rated blocker, according to Pro Football Focus. Philadelphia Magazine’s Sheil Kapadia said “it’s impossible to overstate how much Kelly loves [Celek].” But Kelly must be enamored with Ertz too, given the de facto general manager drafted the Stanford product early in 2013’s second round after coaching against him for three years at Oregon. Kelly mentioned Ertz as a primary receiving replacement for departed wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, per McLane on Twitter. Chip Kelly on TE Zach Ertz: “I still think there’s a big jump that can happen between Year 2 and 3.” #Eagles — Jeff McLane (@Jeff_McLane) March 25, 2015 Ertz finished 2014 ranked 14th in fantasy scoring among tight ends, averaging 5.4 points per week. Even a slight bump in production would rocket him up the board in a shallow talent pool for fantasy tight ends. If you can stomach some risk, Ertz deserves to be drafted ahead of tight ends with lower upsides like Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron and Jason Witten. All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 75 receptions, 900 yards and six touchdowns. Matthews is set for a palatable fantasy encore after an impressive rookie season in 2014. The second-rounder out of Vanderbilt racked up 67 catches for 872 yards and eight touchdowns while participating in only 66 percent of the offensive snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. Philadelphia’s potential WR1 isn’t outwardly claiming Jeremy Maclin’s vacated chair, according to Zach Berman of The Inquirer. People ask me about being the No. 1 wide receiver; Forget it. I want us to be a receiving corps. That’s what I want it to be. I think you would think that I might get a whole lot more outside reps now just because Maclin is gone, but I already had talked to coaches, and they were already going to implement me more on the outside as opposed to just the inside regardless. I don’t think that’s a crazy, huge deal. Even though the Eagles are likely to spread the ball around plenty in 2015, Matthew’s potential cannot be ignored. He’s a worthy WR2 in all formats with an enticing upside as the No. 1 target in Philadelphia’s spectacle of an offense. All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 80 receptions for 1,200 yards and eight touchdowns. Philadelphia signed Murray away from the Dallas Cowboys with a five-year, $40 million blockbuster free-agent deal. Murray’s $18 million guaranteed ranks third among running backs, behind only Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster. The move embodied Chip Kelly’s run-first philosophy, considering Philadelphia manages the fifth-highest running back payroll in the league, compared to the 13th-most for quarterbacks, according to Spotrac. Murray led the league last season in rushing (1,845 yards) and total yards from scrimmage (2,261), tying Marshawn Lynch for most rushing touchdowns with 13. He finished first in fantasy scoring among running backs and seventh overall, according to ESPN.com. Owner Jeffrey Lurie explained the team’s philosophy behind effectively exchanging LeSean McCoy for Murray, reported Sheil Kapadia of Philadelphia Magazine. We’ve been talking about the asset value of LeSean for a long time because he wasn’t the style of runner that Chip prefers, but a great player. Getting players that fit more of what he’s all about in terms of their style of play. LeSean McCoy is a great running back—all-time franchise leader. Great guy in every way. To maximize his power spread offense, he’s always admired the one-cut runners Acquiring the All-Pro would rate a home run except for a short list of concerns headlined by injury problems dating back to his college career with the Oklahoma Sooners, according to KFFL and Sports Injury Predictor. Dallas took some serious tread off Murray’s tires in 2014, running him 392 times to tie him with Terrell Davis (1998) and Ricky Williams (2003) for the seventh-most single-season carries in NFL history. The four-year veteran also enjoyed running behind the best offensive line in the league, per Pro Football Focus. Fortunately for Murray owners, Philadelphia’s O-line is hardly a downgrade when healthy. The experts are slightly more bullish on Murray’s prospects than the public, with 55 percent ranking him ahead of his eighth-place average draft position among running backs. Fears of injury and decreased workload are the only possible explanations for such tempered expectations. Go with the pros and draft Murray among the top-five running backs in the first round unless you’re buying the projections of him falling into the second. Murray will be an absolute steal if he’s still available in the second round. Yes the Eagles backfield is crowded, but Murray is a proven workhorse joining a strong running system and will flourish in 2015. All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 300 carries for 1,350 yards and 15 touchdowns. NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference , fantasy stats provided by CBS Sports.com, fantasy draft projections courtesy of Fantasy Pros, contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap and h/t to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.
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