The Daily Dose: Dose: Game 7 Preview

With only one Game 7 left in the Conference Semifinals, we were left with just one game on Saturday and Sunday. The Warriors will find out who they’re going to play Sunday with the Clippers traveling to Houston for a must-watch Game 7 at 3:30 EDT. Get your errands done right now and I won’t be offended if you need to stop reading this to do so. Errands done? OK, let’s talk a little bit about what to watch for in this game.

Obviously the most important aspect of this game will be how coach Kevin McHale handles his rotation. Based on the entire series, here’s a look at the lineups and how they performed in the last six games (minimum of five minutes):

The first thing to note here is that all five of the most-used lineups have negative net ratings. This has a lot to do with how the Rockets were absolutely smoked in three of the first four games. Still, even in the last two games, the most-used lineup (the starters) had a negative net rating. Coach Kevin McHale will probably not mess with that group and have some faith in them. After all, he does think James Harden was the MVP.

The other very interesting thing about the Houston lineups is what happens with the super lineup from Thursday. The Ariza-Brewer-Smoove-Terry-Dwight lineup has a 123.5 net rating with almost all nine of those minutes coming on Thursday. Does Smoove come off the bench to give him more of a play-making role? Probably not. Does he play more minutes and take away from Terrence Jones? Possibly. Jones hasn’t really been bad this series, but the Rockets don’t seem to be playing well while he’s on the court. He was also very good on defense against the Clippers during the regular season, according to SportVU (two regular season games are on the top and the series vs. LAC is on the bottom):

Yes, Blake Griffin didn’t play in one of those games, but that’s still a complete flip-flop and uncharacteristic for TJ. His minutes have dipped in each of his last three games, so he might be around 20 on Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s in the teens based on how Josh Smith looks. If Smoove is hitting shots and making plays, Mid-Range Shawty could get minutes in the mid 30s.

All this fancy schmancy lineup stuff won’t be as big of a factor as James Harden. We’ve haven’t seen Harden post a big game in this series, averaging 24.5 points, 5.3 boards, 8.2 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.5 treys on 40.8 percent from the field. Those are still big numbers, but his efficiency is down. A big reason why is the Clippers are keeping him out of the paint more than usual and he is settling for jumpers. If he can get more into an attack mode, we might see a 40-point game.

Corey Brewer has also been phenomenal. He’s hitting treys, being aggressive on defense and the Rockets are actually using him in halfcourt sets. Brewer played 25 minutes on Thursday and basically was given Harden’s minutes down the stretch. If he’s knocking down shots while Jason Terry is off and Chris Paul is having success vs. the JET, McHale could certainly go with a Harden-Ariza-Brewer backcourt lineup for a few stretches of this game. Although, that combination has only been used for two minutes in this series. Regardless, Brewer’s improved play all of the sudden is a big reason why we have a Game 7.

Thanks to an epic collapse on Thursday, everyone who loves hot takes and narratives is saying “Chris Paul isn’t clutch” or some garbage. Yes, we get it. He has never made it to a conference finals, but Thursday wasn’t his fault. Even Doc Rivers said CP3’s teammates were scared to take shots and CP3 was putting his guys in successful positions, which he always seems to do. If you’re a Clippers fan and you’re worried about CP3 stepping up, you probably haven’t watched him play much this season or in the playoffs. He’s not the problem, despite what your favorite sports show might say.

There’s no doubt that Blake Griffin has been stealing the show on the stat sheet and with some highlights. However, there is legitimate concern of him falling off in the fourth quarter. Here’s his shot chart in his fourth quarters in these playoffs:

Holy Kia Optima. Yes, the jump shooting isn’t good, but the issue here is making just 11-of-34 (32.4 percent) in the paint which just doesn’t make sense. During the fourth quarter in the regular season, he made 52-of-87 (59.8 percent). Of course, Blake is playing many more minutes and he’s also going up against better competition every night. Even with 12 games as a sample size in the playoffs (he didn’t play in the fourth in one game because of garbage time), it still feels like a fluke. Keep an eye on his shots in the fourth.

The Clippers have some great role players for their superstars. DeAndre Jordan is one of the best contested rebounders in the NBA and he’s been much better at moving without the ball for alley-oops. Of course, if the Clippers come out hot on offense, DJ will be shooting plenty of free throws. Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick have both gone cold in their last two for a combined 13-of-38 (34.2 percent) with just six 3-pointers put together, too. One of them will have to play better and I’d guess more pressure is on Redick because he’s been able to get better looks than Jamal. The Clippers will also want to force turnovers and Redick should get some easier looks early in the shot clock. Plus, CP3 should be more out there a lot, which means less responsibility for Crawford. Matt Barnes will have to do a better job of playing defense and he was also really bad in the fourth, as well.

It’s been a really tough ride for the Clippers so far. There have been two Game 7s in the playoffs this year and the Clippers will have played in both. They were able to pull out the Game 7 win against the Spurs even with CP3 playing with a strained hamstring, so it’s hard to bet against them. They also won two games in San Antonio.

As far as a prediction goes, this one is too close to call and you could go either way. As alluded to above, perhaps there is more pressure on coach Kevin McHale than any coach in recent memory. Before this season, McHale was on the Rotoworld hit list for his wacky rotations with Jeremy Lin, Patrick Beverley, Terrence Jones and a host of other players getting inconsistent minutes. I think he might have too much confidence in himself for hitting the jackpot with lineup combos. Will it work?

I think it will. Dwight Howard is playing really well and James Harden should have a great game. This is not a knock on the Clippers and I don’t think their choke job from Thursday will affect them. Doc Rivers is a first-class coach and his players will be ready. I’ll take the Rockets 112-111.

As far as the news on Saturday goes, I hope you did something fun. Kyrie Irving (knee) didn’t practice, but it sounds like a precaution. For now, expect him to play on Wednesday.

Enjoy the game!

As far as the news on Saturday goes, I hope you did something fun. Kyrie Irving (knee) didn’t practice, but it sounds like a precaution. For now, expect him to play on Wednesday.

Enjoy the game!

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