Clayton Kershaw notches his 100th career win — can he reach 300?
In is what was surprisingly one of his better outings this season. Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw held the Colorado Rockies to three runs on four hits over 6 2/3 innings to earn the 100th victory of his already storied and heavily decorated career.
It’s a surprise, because while effective and at times dominant, he still wasn’t the Kershaw we’ve come to expect. The 10 strikeouts were encouraging. The three walks were not, and neither was his inability to put the struggling Rockies away in the seventh inning.
It actually hasn’t been vintage Kershaw for awhile now, which is one of the many reasons he’s needed five chances to notch this 100th victory. But he’s over the hump now and officially on the road to his next 100.
Though obviously far from the first or the fastest to reach triple-digit victories, it’s still a big deal and perhaps even further validation of his position as the best pitcher in baseball dating back to 2012. Of course, as with any milestone, it also leads people to immediately wonder just how high the number can go before Kershaw ultimately walks away from baseball, hopefully another 10 or 12 years down the road.
Is his ceiling 200 wins? 250? Will he one of the elite few to reach the 300-win milestone? That’s the question.
If he adds another two or three Cy Young Awards or even one more MVP to his resume, reaching that heralded milestone wouldn’t be necessary to secure his place in the Hall of Fame. Especially with the emphasis on pitcher wins at an all-time low with greater statistical analysis readily available. But let’s face it, we’re all drawn to those large, round numbers to some degree, mainly because so few players actually reach them.
In baseball’s long history, only 24 pitchers have reached 300 wins. The most recent was 2014 Hall of Fame inductee Randy Johnson, who reached the milestone on June 4, 2009. He’d only go on to win three more games.
Only four active pitchers have at least 200 wins — Tim Hudson (215), Bartolo (210), CC Sabathia (209) and Mark Buehrle (204) — which means Kershaw might be best positioned to be the 25th member of baseball’s 300-win club.
Looking at the math, the average age that previous 300-game winners reached 200 wins is 32. That means Kershaw, who’s at 27 years, 57 days right now, would have to win another 100 games between now and the end of the 2019 season. That’s 20 per season — discounting the two he has in 2015 — to maintain the average pace.
Feasible? Sure, but he’ll have to make up ground quickly with nearly 25-percent of his starts this season already in the books.
[Check out Big League Stew on Tumblr for even more baseball awesomeness.]
The average age for pitchers who have reached 300 wins is 37.6, so that 20 win average remains a good estimate, though obviously there’s no set age he has to reach it by. If physically capable, there’s no reason to think Kershaw won’t pitch until he’s 40. With a few more dominant seasons he may get well ahead of that pace, too.
There are a lot of factors involved, many of which are out of Kershaw’s hands. It’s a vastly different game now than when most of the 300-game winners achieved their mark. With more pitching specialists involved and teams unwilling to exceed predetermined pitch counts and innings limits, wins are often taken out of the hands of guys like Kershaw and trusted to the bullpen’s flavor of the month.
Beyond that, durability is the biggest factor. So far, Kershaw has proven to be a workhorse, needing only one DL trip in 2014 with back issues following the Dodgers long flights to and from Australia.
As we’re all too aware though, every pitcher is one pitch away from an extended absence. Avoiding such a setback might be the key for Kershaw or any modern pitcher to join the 300-win club.
Because of those factor, it’s almost impossible to and predict what Kershaw’s future will hold next week, let alone 10 years from now. But part of the fun in sports is making those predictions anyway. With that in mind, gives us your best guess or prediction for Kershaw’s win total and how long you’ll think he’ll be around.
Feel free to leave it in the comment or hit us up on Twitter: @bigleaguestew
More MLB coverage from Yahoo Sports:
– – – – – – –
Mark Townsend is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Townie813
