Preakness 2015: Predictions and Analysis – New York Times
By JOE DRAPE and MELISSA HOPPERT
May 14, 2015
The horses for Saturday’s 140th running of the Preakness Stakes are listed in order of post position with comments provided by Joe Drape and Melissa Hoppert of The New York Times. Both have also selected their win-place-show horses. The morning-line odds were set by Keith Feustle of Pimlico Race Course.
Purse: $1.5 million guaranteed Distance: 1 3/16 miles
Track record: 1:52.2 (Farma Way, 1991) Weight: 126 pounds
Post time: 6:18 p.m. Eastern time Television: NBC
Joe Drape’s picks: Firing Line, Dortmund, American Pharoah
Melissa Hoppert’s picks: Dortmund, American Pharoah, Firing Line
1. American Pharoah
Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Victor Espinoza Odds: 4-5
J.D.: This colt was all out to win the Derby over Firing Line and Dortmund. They are back, and Pharoah finishes behind them.
M.H.: He has won five straight and looks every bit like a true champion. But how will he rebound from a taxing effort in the Derby?
2. Dortmund
Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Martin Garcia Odds: 7-2
J.D.: This big colt did all the work on the front end, and a tiring track did him in. He may go gate to wire.
M.H.: He wore himself out going to the lead out of the gate in the Derby. But this is a shorter race, and a horse of his size should be able to rebound quickly.
3. Mr. Z
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas Jockey: Corey Nakatani Odds: 20-1
J.D.: This wild card, who finished 13th in the Derby, is going to press the Baffert horses. Use him in your trifectas and superfectas.
M.H.: Owned by Ahmed Zayat until Wednesday, when he was sold to Calumet Farm, he is now a rival of Zayat’s American Pharoah. Lukas has won the Preakness six times, but this colt has won only once in 13 starts.
4. Danzig Moon
Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Julien Leparoux Odds: 15-1
J.D.: He was roughed up in the Derby, where he finished fifth, but this promising colt is out of his pay grade.
M.H.: He generated a lot of buzz ahead of the Derby after some stellar training sessions, but he has still won only once in six starts.
5. Tale of Verve
Trainer: Dallas Stewart Jockey: Joel Rosario Odds: 30-1
J.D.: Really? Off a single victory in a maiden race?
M.H.: He has a top jockey in Rosario, but, otherwise, this horse has no shot.
6. Bodhisattva
Trainer: Jose Corrales Jockey: Trevor McCarthy Odds: 20-1
J.D.: He has a great name and local connections. Next.
M.H.: Won the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico, but the home-track advantage will not be enough to top the big three.
7. Divining Rod
Trainer: Arnaud Delacour Jockey: Javier Castellano Odds: 12-1
J.D.: This is a nice colt, but mainly because of his owners, who raced Barbaro, he will be overbet.
M.H.: Of the fresh horses coming into this race, the Lexington Stakes winner probably has the best shot to hit the board.
8. Firing Line
Trainer: Simon Callaghan Jockey: Gary Stevens Odds: 4-1
J.D.: The Derby runner-up never runs a bad race, is battle-tested and will run big again.
M.H.: Stevens, at 52, has that fire in his eyes again and is looking to play spoiler to American Pharoah’s Triple Crown bid. He certainly has the horse to do it.
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