Buying or Selling Latest Buzz Around 2015 NFL Rookie Class – Bleacher Report While there are still nearly four months until the rookies of the 2015 NFL draft class take the field for their first regular-season games, the work has already begun for professional football’s newcomers. Twenty-six of the NFL’s teams have already held their rookie minicamps, while the other six franchises will follow suit this weekend. Following the initial minicamps, most rookies stay with their teams for conditioning workouts and organized team activities. Exceptions to that expectation are players who have not yet graduated from college and whose schools are still in session; by rule, those rookies are not allowed to participate in OTAs until the end of their schools’ academic years. It’s still too early to get a good grasp on how each rookie fits into his team’s plans, as rookies and veterans have yet to come together for full-team practices. But that hasn’t stopped NFL fans, reporters and pundits—at least those that are thinking beyond the New England Patriots’ deflated balls scandal—from starting to present ideas of what the rookies’ roles could be for their NFL organizations in year one. Early smoke from rookies’ first offseason workouts sometimes leads to fire. An example from last season was Arizona Cardinals wide receiver John Brown, who was hyped up throughout offseason workouts last year and went on to catch 48 passes for 696 yards and five touchdowns in his rookie season. That said, strong showings in shorts in summer do not always lead to success when the game pants come on. New York Jets first-round pick Calvin Pryor was lauded by then-coach Rex Ryan during rookie minicamp last year, but was later criticized by Ryan and benched for five games after failing to play up to expectations in the regular season. So if you’re wondering whether you should believe the early hype on this year’s rookies, the answer is sometimes yes, sometimes no. In the following slides, we take a look at why some of the hype is worth buying into, but other hype should be taken with more skepticism, at least so far. None of the three quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft—Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater—opened their rookie seasons as starting quarterbacks for their respective teams last season. Don’t expect this year’s first-round quarterbacks to face the same wait. So far, all indications are that when the Tennessee Titans play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1 of the NFL regular season, No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston and No. 2 overall pick Marcus Mariota will be both on the field. After drafting Winston, Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht told NBC Sports’ Pro Football Talk that the team will give Winston “every opportunity” to win the starting job this summer. “It’s pretty difficult to say with a straight face that we’re not going to give Jameis that opportunity to win it right away,” Licht said. “He’s the first overall pick. We think he’s very advanced in terms of his ability to play and pick up schemes and concepts and learn the playbook relative to most rookies, or any rookie we’ve scouted in recent history.” As for Mariota, Tennessee coach Ken Whisenhunt has affirmed that the Titans will “give Marcus every opportunity to get him into the starting role,” according to ESPN’s NFL Twitter account. Buccaneers third-year quarterback Mike Glennon and Titans second-year quarterback Zach Mettenberger are young, toolsy pocket passers with enough upside to potentially still have runs as NFL starting quarterbacks in front of them. Those runs just aren’t likely to happen with their current teams. The last five quarterbacks to be selected with the No. 1 or 2 overall pick—Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford—were all Week 1 rookie starters for the teams that drafted them. Barring injuries, Winston and Mariota—each Heisman Trophy winners with the passing skills and football intelligence to succeed quickly in the NFL—should continue that trend. The New York Jets are facing another summer of uncertainty at the quarterback position, with struggling third-year quarterback Geno Smith set to compete against journeyman spot starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yet in spite of the team’s lack of a promising option at the position, fourth-round pick Bryce Petty is not expected to be take part in the starting quarterback competition. Following the draft, Jets coach Todd Bowles said the team is “not looking forward to him [Petty] being a starter right now,” according to NJ.com’s Dom Cosentino. Bowles reiterated that Smith will enter training camp in the No. 1 spot on the team’s quarterback depth chart, while Fitzpatrick will open camp on the second string and Petty will “battle it out” with Matt Simms for the third-string job. As Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson noted in an article segment about the impending quarterback battle between Smith and Fitzpatrick, “Jets fans will so want rookie Bryce Petty to be a part of this competition.” Given Petty’s size, arm strength, mobility and collegiate success, there’s reason to think he could potentially be an upgrade at some point over Smith, who has been unable to find consistency in his first two NFL seasons, and Fitzpatrick, who is with his fourth team in four years and best suited to be a backup. With that being said, Petty is a project. He has the physical tools to offer long-term promise, but he needs to work on his downfield throwing accuracy. He also needs to learn how to operate from a pro-style offense after working out of a stat-padding spread system at Baylor. If Petty was legitimately equipped to be a rookie starting quarterback, he would have been drafted well before the fourth round. And even with the faults Smith and Fitzpatrick have, it’s unlikely that Petty, who needs much more development than aforementioned Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, would be an upgrade in 2015. For what it’s worth, reviews of Petty’s performance at Jets rookie minicamp were mixed. ESPN.com’s Rich Cimini praised the quarterback, stating that Petty “passed his first throwing test, slinging the ball with velocity and accuracy during seven-on-seven drills.” Robinson, however, wrote that Petty “looked rough in rookie minicamp, with some of his predraft red flags popping up (see: the deep ball).” Either way, Petty will have to wow in training camp and the preseason to have a shot at starting this year. Don’t bet on that to happen. A running back selected with the No. 10 overall pick after there were no first-round selections at the position in the 2013 and 2014 NFL drafts, Todd Gurley is a special talent. The St. Louis Rams wouldn’t have used a prime draft pick on the Georgia product if they didn’t think he could quickly emerge as one of the NFL’s elite offensive playmakers. Even so, the prediction by ESPN’s KC Joyner that Gurley will win this year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award is not one you should place any bets on. From a talent standpoint, Gurley certainly looks capable of having a highly productive rookie season. Possessing a rare combination of size, speed, power, agility and vision, Gurley is a tough-to-stop between-the-tackles runner who also, as Joyner noted, has “elite breakaway ability.” The problem for Gurley, however, is that he is recovering from a torn ACL. The knee injury, which Gurley suffered in November, will likely limit him during training camp and the preseason, and could potentially cut into the start of his rookie year. In comparing Gurley to 2014 Offensive Rookie of the Year award winner Odell Beckham Jr., Joyner made a fair point, noting that missing games early in the season would not necessarily disqualify Gurley from winning the award anyways. The problem with that comparison, however, is that a torn ACL is a different beast than the hamstring ailment Beckham dealt with last season. Even if Gurley makes a quick recovery and is able to return to the field for the start of the year, it will likely take him some time to return to top form. Assuming he makes a full recovery and stays healthy, Gurley is likely to be a star within two or three years. Because of the injury, however, expectations should be tempered for his rookie year. It’s likely that his workload will gradually increase over the course of the 2015 season if he returns to form and shows stamina, but he will presumably split carries with Tre Mason, who had 765 rushing yards in his own rookie season last year. With first-round picks in the spotlight throughout the league, the Miami Dolphins’ Round 1 selection (No. 14 overall) drew as much praise as anyone during the first weekend of rookie minicamps. It’s clear that wide receiver DeVante Parker, a Louisville product, has made a positive first impression in Miami. Following the first day of their minicamp, the Dolphins posted a video of Parker high-pointing passes to make acrobatic passes. That’s nothing new for anyone who watched Parker at Louisville, where he made a habit of making spectacular catches look easy while establishing himself as one of the best wide receivers in college football. Of course, any draft pick can look like a stud in a video produced by a team’s public relations staff. What really stood out about Parker’s first days in action as a Dolphin was the credit he received from other observers of the minicamp. According to ESPN’s James Walker, Parker has been “flashing consistently in practice.” Per Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald, there were several instances in which Parker “caught poorly thrown balls by extending hands or contorting his body.” The highest praise of all might have come from Nat Moore, a former Dolphins wide receiver and currently the team’s Senior Vice President of Alumni Relations, who compared Parker to another former Dolphins wideout, five-time Pro Bowl selection Mark Clayton. “He caught everything in his range, has an unbelievable skill set and catches the ball out front, has got good, soft hands, and runs good routes,” Moore told Brian Coyle of The Finsiders. “He seems like a good kid with all the right makeup, all the right attitude. I watch him out there he’s like a sponge, soaking up everything the coaches are giving him. I look for big things out of Mr. Parker.” Standing out in rookie minicamp should come as no surprise for Parker, but there are many reasons to believe it is a sign of things to come. A big, fast pass-catcher who consistently showed great hands and playmaking ability in college, Parker has the tools to potentially emerge as the Dolphins’ leading receiver in his debut season. Before the NFL levied punishments on the New England Patriots earlier this week, the biggest post-draft story in the NFL had been that of La’el Collins signing with the Dallas Cowboys. An All-SEC left tackle at LSU, Collins was projected to be a first-round pick until two days before this year’s draft, when ESPN’s Adam Schefter broke news that Collins was being sought for questioning after the shooting death of a pregnant woman in Baton Rouge, La. Collins went undrafted due to a scarcity of information available to teams during the draft, but he was signed by the Cowboys last Thursday after he “fully cooperated with investigators” last Monday and was “still not considered a suspect” in the death, as reported by Jerit Roser of NOLA.com. It appears as though Collins will not face any charges in connection to the fatal shooting, and given that, it also appears to be a real possibility that Collins—arguably the most talented offensive lineman in the entire rookie class—could be in the Cowboys’ starting lineup for 2015. It could have been said even before the signing of Collins that the Cowboys had the best offensive line in the NFL. Because of that, Collins will certainly not be handed a starting spot without earning it. With that being said, it’s widely believed that Collins will project as Dallas’ new starting left guard, where he would replace Ronald Leary. According to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport, the Cowboys considered using their first-round pick to draft an offensive lineman who could start out playing guard, then move to right tackle to replace Doug Free in the future. By signing Collins after some clarity came to his off-field situation, they ended up with a player more talented than anyone they could have chosen at the No. 27 overall pick. It’s possible the Cowboys could even give Collins a shot to beat out Free for the right tackle job in 2015. Collins is best suited to kick inside to guard, given his ability to play with power and his lack of length, but it’s reasonable to think he could be an upgrade over Free. Still, that seems like an unlikely strategy for Dallas in 2015. The team re-signed Free to a three-year, $15 million contract this offseason, which indicates the Cowboys’ faith in him as their starting right tackle. By contrast, the Cowboys only signed Leary—who was an adequate starter in 2014, but is still the unit’s weakest link—to a one-year, $585,000 contract. As was covered in the introductory slide, Rex Ryan is one of the NFL’s most candid men, so it’s no surprise that the new Buffalo Bills coach is already sharing information about how his rookies could fit into the equation this year. Most NFL rookies—especially those that are not first-round picks—go at least into training camp as still being listed as backups on their teams’ depth charts, still having to earn their way into their teams’ starting lineups. That might not be the case, however, for Bills third-round pick John Miller. Even though the Bills have yet to even begin their organized team activities, Ryan said Miller, a four-year starting guard at Louisville, is already “running with the first team” on the Bills offensive line, according to Jay Skurski of The Buffalo News. “That doesn’t mean that he stays there, but that’s where he’s already fitting in,” Ryan said, according to Skurski. “You put him out there with the ‘ones’, mentally that’s pretty impressive. It wasn’t like we had to slow things down because he was in there.” While Ryan acknowledged that Miller working with the starters for now does not necessarily mean he will stay in that role, it’s a good bet that he will ultimately emerge as a first-team guard for the Bills this season. An experienced, powerful and technically sound guard who played on both sides of the line at Louisville, Miller is clearly making a positive first impression, and could be an immediate upgrade in Buffalo at a position of weakness. Coming off a 2014 campaign in which they had consistently terrible play at both left guard and right guard, the Bills go into the 2015 season with no clear-cut starters at the position. Richie Incognito is a possible starter after signing with the team earlier this offseason, and others who could be in the mix include incumbent left guard Kraig Urbik plus 2014 draft picks Cyril Richardson and Cyrus Kouandjio. None of those players, however, will stop Miller from earning a starting job if he performs well through offseason workouts, training camp and the preseason. Much like the aforementioned Buffalo Bills at left guard, the Denver Broncos had three different starters at the right tackle position last season. The Broncos ultimately had to move Louis Vasquez outside from guard after Chris Clark and Paul Cornick both failed to emerge as quality replacements at right tackle for Orlando Franklin, who was moved to guard last offseason and is no longer with the team. With Vasquez moving back inside to guard for the 2015 season, the door is wide open for Ty Sambrailo, the Broncos’ second-round pick from Colorado State, to potentially win the right tackle job as a rookie. According to KUSA-TV’s Mike Klis, who wrote that Sambrailo is “expected to start,” Broncos coach Gary Kubiak has said that he knows Sambrailo “has the potential to” be a Week 1 starter for Denver. “He understands what we’re doing,” Kubiak said. “He’s been talking the same language we talk offensively. It will be a very quick transition for him to become very competitive.” If all of that is true, Sambrailo certainly has a chance to win the job outright. Dominant as a four-year starter who played multiple offensive line positions at Colorado State, Sambrailo has a solid combination of athleticism and technical soundness, and he plays with nastiness. With that being said, there are reasons to have doubts about Sambrailo being an immediate upgrade as a rookie. He has a clear need to become stronger, does not stand out physically in any area and was regularly exposed and beaten during his week at this year’s Senior Bowl. While Kubiak expressed confidence in Sambrailo’s ability to potentially win the starting job, he also noted that “it’s going to be competitive” between the rookie, Clark and second-year offensive lineman Michael Schofield, who did not play last season but was a third-round pick in 2014. Clark is a weak run blocker, but for a team that needs to emphasize providing quality psas protection for Peyton Manning, he might be the best option for 2015, at least to start. There’s also reason to believe that Schofield, with a year of experience under his belt, might be more well-equipped to take on a starting role this season than Sambrailo as a rookie. The Seattle Seahawks traded four picks in order to acquire the No. 69 overall pick from the Washington Redskins and select Kansas State wide receiver Tyler Lockett in the third round of the NFL draft. So far, the Seahawks seem to be feeling very good about their investment. Lockett was reportedly a standout at the Seahawks’ rookie minicamp, where coach Pete Carroll described him as being “all over the field,” according to Gregg Bell of The News Tribune. Meanwhile, John Boyle of the Everett Herald said Lockett “stood out as one of the most explosive players on the field.” “Definite big-play ability in him,” Boyle tweeted. Lockett’s early excellence should not come as a surprise. He has the speed to be a downfield weapon, the agility to extend plays in space and the route-running prowess to consistently get open both inside and outside. For now, it appears that the Seahawks primarily envision Lockett being a return specialist. “Carroll has all but declared Lockett the Seahawks’ punt and kickoff returner for this season, four months before the first game,” according to Bell. If Lockett continues to stand out in full-team workouts this summer, however, the Seahawks will need to consider working him into their wide receiver rotation right away. Coming off a season in which Doug Baldwin was their only player to eclipse 600 receiving yards, Lockett has the tools to potentially emerge as a go-to target along with offseason tight end acquisition Jimmy Graham. As I noted in a predraft piece for Bleacher Report, Lockett has the all-around skill set to emerge as a comparable player to Pittsburgh Steelers standout Antonio Brown. He’s not likely to play at that level in 2015, but if he can give the team both a reliable receiving weapon and an upgrade on special teams, he could end up being one of the most valuable rookies in the NFL. Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
Jameis Winston is already well on his way to emerging as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ starting quarterback.
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