What We Learned: Are bigger nets really answer to NHL scoring woes?

(Hello, this is a feature that will run through the entire season and aims to recap the weekend’s events and boils those events down to one admittedly superficial fact or stupid opinion about each team. Feel free to complain about it.

The difference is just 1.21 inches. That’s about the size of a U.S. half-dollar. And yet in the NHL, it seems to be everything.

Or so people would have you believe.

That number is the difference in size between the average NHL goaltender in 1983-84 to present. And among many other things, that has lately been attributed to the much, much smaller number of goals being scored in the average NHL game. Over that same span — and this is a bizarre coincidence — the average number of goals scored per team per game is down… 1.21.

Yup, add in everything from bigger pads and better training to larger players and improved theory, and goaltenders today have become dominant, near-invincible juggernauts who loom over results like malevolent clouds, ready to render the game boring. The average save percentage in the league this year was an all-time high .915. Back in ’84, it was just .873. Meaning that on every 1,000 shots, the average goaltender gives up 42 fewer goals than he did 31 years ago.

Goalscoring is, in fact, at stultifying low levels for a lot of observers in the game. While the 2-1 wins being eked out on a near-nightly basis in these playoffs might leave fans’ nerves frayed, they also leave grouchy neutrals grumbling about where the hell all the goals they used to see 20 years ago went. The size of the goalies is certainly being blamed; the two guys in Saturday’s game check in at 6-foot-7 and 6-foot-3, and the other goalies who were still alive for Sunday’s games are all at least 6-foot-1. These are large men, who in most cases are sizable even by NHL standards The average player has been about 6-foot-1 for a while now, and goalies tend to be the tallest among them.

It’s almost impossible to believe that anyone would look at 1.21 inches and say to themselves, “Well this is the problem with the damn sport now,” but they might actually be right. These lines fit together pretty convincingly (all this data from Hockey Reference):

That increasing goaltender size would negatively impact goal-scoring stands to reason to some extent: bigger guys are typically going to have better save percentages because they take up more of the net. In theory anyway, because Anders Lindback is the second-tallest goalie in the league and he sucks. But what’s interesting is that these larger goaltenders with better save percentages also tend to play a lot more. In 1983-84, only 20 goalies played more than 40 games for their teams, meaning that there were guys who were clear starters for their clubs. This season that number was 30. Vancouver was the only team to double up exclusively, because they pulled and sat Ryan Miller (45 appearances) so many times that Eddie Lack got into 41 games. Arizona used Mike Smith in 62, and also gave Devan Dubnyk (58) some reps before trading him and allowing Minnesota to start him in many consecutive games.

But again, we’re dealing with the size of a half-dollar, a little bit more than the tab on a can of soda (or beer if you like to party). So that can’t be the only reason. Again, though, 1983-84 — as far back as save percentage statistics go — is, coincidentally, the same year in which the Capitals hired the first goalie coach in league history. Now all 30 teams have them, and one would have to think there’s no coincidence there. Goaltenders now get specialized training not only at this level but throughout their playing careers, and kids can attend goaltending-specific hockey camps at a very young age.

The reason NHL goalies back in the mid-80s were so bad by today’s standards (the league leader back then was Roland Melanson at a .903 that would have gotten him drummed out of today’s NHL faster than he could say “Pavelec”) that many highlights from back then featured goals being scored against netminders just standing there five feet out of their crease and kicking futilely at the puck, or simply laying down on the ice.

Obviously the butterfly changed everything by the mid-1990s, as did the trap, as teams practiced a more defensive approach. And while I don’t think team play is appreciably more conservative throughout the league now, we clearly see that goals per game is down about 10 percent from the “Oh my god the Devils are murdering everything we love about the sport!!!” days.

Can you blame that entirely on the fact that goalies are bigger? Probably not. Is that a contributing factor? The closeness of the trends in the above chart are also reflected below. Simply put, there’s a lot of mathematical correlation here (even if the height issue is one of about a billion ways the sport is different now than it was even a decade ago).

So the solution many have proposed is to make the nets bigger. That seems simple enough. If goalies get bigger, the nets get bigger, and goals start going in with greater frequency. But the question you have to ask yourself is how much that fundamentally changes the sport, and in short order. Even if you make the nets 73-by-49, adding just one inch to both the height and width, the sport changes at a fundamental level for every goaltender who has ever played the game; their angles would be just slightly wrong, and that would probably lead to more goal-scoring.

But here’s the problem: That makes goaltenders less valuable. And many teams have invested a lot of money in their goalies. If goalies are easier to beat, they’re easier to replace.

Their value relative to each other stays the same, but their value relative to forwards and defenses decreases, because they’re saving fewer goals overall and therefore contributing less to wins and losses. If you just locked up one of the best goalies in the world for nearly a decade like the Rangers did, the monetary size of that investment decreases. Roberto Luongo famously threatened to retire on the spot if such a change was made. There would be a lot of pushback on such a move, and rightly so. Increasing the size of the nets is a really stupid idea.

A better idea might be to change the nature of the game without making what goalies do all that different. A prototype net the league tried out in 2009, and obviously ended up rejecting, was one that came with oval pipes rather than circular. This way, shots that would normally be off-the-post-and-out sighs of relief for the goaltender would become off-the-post-and-in regrets, and this is apparently true especially when shots hit the crossbar (which makes plenty of sense because of the angle of entry most of the time). And while the posts would be the same width, there would be a slight broadening of the angle at which a shot could theoretically go into the net.

Or, y’know, they could just make the equipment smaller (again). That might actually require them to enforce the rules, but one step at a time, I guess.

(You also wonder if they’ve tried asking the goalies not to try as hard. That could be a big help.)

All of this, though, comes with the caveat that you have to think more goals equals better hockey. I’m not sure that it necessarily does, but I also watch soccer. The NHL isn’t trying to appeal to me or you, and that’s even if you want every game to finish 6-5. It’s trying to appeal to the casual sports fan: people who want buzz-cut Alabamans spewing colored smoke from their whizz-jets to the strains of “Rock You Like a Hurricane.” They don’t care how big the damn nets are now. Nor should they, I guess.

That’s all the league wants, and has ever wanted: Increased scoring. It’s just another goal these guys are stopping.

What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: Matt Beleskey has been excellent in these playoffs so far, and hey wouldn’t you know it he’s a UFA on July 1.

Arizona Coyotes: No surprise here, but it’s looking pretty likely that Noah Hanifin goes to Arizona at No. 3. Wouldn’t be shocked to see him stay in college at least one more year after that, though.

Boston Bruins: If your defense of Peter Chiarelli’s drafting record is, “Joe Colborne is playing well in Calgary,” well, he has 19 career goals, so no he isn’t. He regularly gets bumped out of his position for guys like Josh Jooris. Joe Colborne is not good.

Buffalo Sabres: Jack Eichel has been excellent at the World Championships. Playing against a lot of NHL talent. And he’s still only 18. This bodes well.

Calgary Flames: People will never not believe this garbage.

Carolina Hurricanes: What if the Hurricanes are actually good next year? What if they get actual goaltending?

Chicago: This Patrick Kane kid seems like he’s pretty good. And yet, says the man himself, “I don’t know if I even have my timing back yet.” Uh oh.

Colorado Avalanche: It seems some think the Avs should try to sign Chris Stewart this summer. It worked out so well last time, how could you not? Oh right, it was bad.

Columbus Blue Jackets: The good news is the Blue Jackets don’t have any future stars they want to low-ball this summer.

Dallas Stars: The Stars might not bring Jhonas Enroth back next year? You don’t say.

Detroit Red Wings: The Wings are very high on Dylan Larkin, and why not? I don’t know why Mike Babcock is so interested in him, of course, but y’know. Gotta keep up appearances.

Edmonton Oilers: The good news is the Oilers probably won’t make it to the playoffs in the next year or two, so Todd McLellan wouldn’t be able to melt down hilariously in them. Hahahahaha that’s a good and topical hockey joke. Just kidding he’s a really good coach.

Florida Panthers: It’s hard to envy young forwards trying to break into this team’s lineup. How many young forwards can they possibly carry? Jaromir Jagr is, at this point, technically two by himself.

Los Angeles Kings: Yeah looks like you might as well go ahead and cross Slava Voynov off next year’s Kings roster.

Minnesota Wild: Why it’s almost like the Wild paid a crapload of money for two guys who aren’t elite-level talents and haven’t built around them. Hmm. Hmmmm.

Montreal Canadiens: I mean, what are you supposed to do against saves like this?

Nashville Predators, America’s Favorite Hockey Team: It’s a one-year, two-way deal to potential backup Marek Mazanec.

New Jersey Devils: Sounds like Ray Shero is indeed just trying to make things in Newark a sort of Pittsburgh East. Which is smart since things are going so well for the Penguins these days.

New York Islanders: Charles Wang believes Isles fans deserve a Stanley Cup. Their coach on the other hand…

New York Rangers: The Rangers only appear “balanced” in terms of point shares because Lundqvist got hurt. If that doesn’t happen, his point shares are probably in the 12-14 range like always and it’s not this amazing accomplishment of a balanced roster.

Ottawa Senators: Matt O’Connor’s save percentage at the college level by season: .910, .920, .927. Elite goalies in college usually crack .930 in multiple seasons. So let’s not get our hopes up, is all.

Philadelphia Flyers: Saying that one reason the Flyers might be attractive to Mike Babcock is because they have “a group of young up-and-coming defensemen” is amazing. That is amazingly off-base because they’re all, a) at least 25, and b) bad.

Pittsburgh Penguins: The Pens are all set with pursuing Mike Babcock. Because when you’ve got a proven winner like Mike Johnston you don’t even consider it.

San Jose Sharks: The Sharks’ real problem? The perception that the owner doesn’t care. Yup, that’s it.

St. Louis Blues: Isn’t “getting better” the answer to everyone’s woes?

Tampa Bay Lightning: Teams don’t “know how to win” or “not know how to win.” Can we please stop with this? Sometimes you lose to elite goaltenders. Wow.

Toronto Maple Leafs: But what if… what if the Leafs draft Mitch Marner instead?

Vancouver Canucks: If you’re having another existential crisis over losing out on Matt O’Connor y’all need to relax.

Washington Capitals: The Capitals have great organizational goaltending depth. Too bad it’s stuck behind Braden Holtby, who is excellent.

Winnipeg Jets: Andrew Ladd had sports hernia surgery but is recovering just fine. He’ll be ready for training camp.

Play of the Weekend

Can’t place a shot better than PA Parenteau did here.

Gold Star Award

LAKE PLACID, NY - AUGUST 04: Auston Matthews #19 of USA White moves the puck around Saku Kinnunen #18 of Team Finland during the 2014 USA Hockey Junior Evaluation Campat Lake Placid Olympic Center on August 4, 2014 in Lake Placid, New York. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Shout out to Auston Matthews going to play pro hockey in Switzerland next season instead of playing college or junior. Getting time against good, grown men will probably go a long way for him. Go pocket the six figures, kid.

Minus of the Weekend