Draft Analysis: NFL Draft: Veteran Losers
Sunday, May 10, 2015
BREAKING NEWS: NFL coaches and general managers often lie. There’s little incentive for them to be forthcoming about player evaluations and roles, especially in the offseason when competition is their uniform mantra.
So as we look for clues, it’s more important to take note of what teams do rather than what they say. The actions in the draft spoke louder than words. Your veteran losers, from a fantasy perspective, are below. For the winners, bang it here:
1. Joique Bell, RB, Lions
The Lions have been trying to fix their running game for the entire six-year Matthew Stafford era. Joique Bell is a solid, versatile and reliable. He’s also averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in each of the last two seasons and will turn 29 in August. The Lions didn’t take Ameer Abdullah at No. 54 overall to have him ride the pine this year and if it’s a fair fight in training camp, Bell’s volume is going to be in some real trouble. Abdullah is a total freak in terms of athleticism as proven by his SPARQ score (95.6 percentile).
2. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
During the free agency period, the Saints traded away Jimmy Graham (for a center) and Kenny Stills (for a linebacker). During the draft, they selected no wideouts or tight ends, instead using 6-of-9 picks on defense. The shift in philosophy going on here is real as Drew Brees enters his age-36 season. The Saints want to have to score fewer points to win games, meaning a reliance on the defense and a running game led by Mark Ingram. And when Brees does go to throw, he’ll find underwhelming weaponry. I like Josh Hill, but he’s a massive, massive downgrade from Graham. Marques Colston is on his last legs and the No. 3 wideout battle is between the likes of Nick Toon, Joe Morgan, Seantavius Jones and Brandon Coleman. Brees’ annually league-high pass attempts are a lock to take a big hit and his effectiveness is in doubt to as he enters his decline phase with weakened playmakers.
3. Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans
The Titans made Bishop Sankey the first running back off the board in 2014. Then they complained about his footwork and watched him struggle badly to the tune of 3.74 YPC and 18 catches in 16 games. The pre-draft evaluations of Sankey by many said he was a space back a la Gio Bernard and one that lacked tackle-breaking skills/burst. That rang true in Year 1 and the Titans now appear ready to head in more of a power direction. An offensive line of LT Taylor Lewan, LG Andy Levitre, C Brian Schwenke, RG Chance Warmack and RT Jeremiah Poutasi is certainly capable. All this brings us to fifth-round David Cobb, a 5’11/229 keg of a runner who will knock Shonn Greene off the roster. Note that the Titans also used a fourth-round pick on Alabama fullback Jalston Fowler. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Cobb ends the season with more carries than Sankey.
4. Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills, WR, Dolphins
Jarvis Landry was one of biggest surprises in last year’s rookie class, excelling as an underneath slot receiver to the tune of 84-758-5. The targets (9.0 per game over last eight weeks) came as a result of Mike Wallace’s inability to connect with Ryan Tannehill, Charles Clay’s nagging knee woes and Brian Hartline’s general mehness.
The competition for volume this year is going to be much, much greater. The Dolphins traded for efficient Kenny Stills, signed Greg Jennings to a deal that included a $3M signing bonus and added Jordan Cameron in free agency. The cherry on top came when they used the No. 14 overall pick on DeVante Parker. So even though Landry’s is safe as the slot man, a player with such a low Average Depth of Target (hat tip Mike Clay) needs a massive amount of looks in half- or non-PPR formats. Don’t expect anything near those nine targets a day.
5. Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts
Long term, Donte Moncrief’s outlook remains intact. Andre Johnson will turn 34 in July and T.Y. Hilton is entering a contract year. But for 2015, Moncrief is buried again. The first pile of dirt came when Johnson signed and the death blow hit when GM Ryan Grigson shockingly used the No. 29 overall pick on Phillip Dorsett. Moncrief is even going to have to fight for situational deep threat duties this year, one season after being underutilized to the tune of 28.7 snaps per game.
6. Terrance West, RB, Browns
With the their third-round pick, the Browns could have filled needs at wide receiver (Sammie Coates), quarterback (Bryce Petty), corner (P.J. Williams) or a multitude of other positions. Instead, they added to an area of strength by selecting RB Duke Johnson. The Miami product is an elite pass-catching back, and was immediately compared to Gio Bernard and Brian Westbrook by GM Ray Farmer. That’s bad news for Terrance West, as Isaiah Crowell is the best early down and inside runner here.
7. Josh Huff, WR, Eagles
Jordan Matthews is locked into the slot and first-rounder Nelson Agholor is going to play the Jeremy Maclin role. Zach Ertz is going to have his volume increased as the “move” tight end. That leaves Josh Huff with a very narrow path to playing time and targets, as he’ll have to beat out Riley Cooper for an outside role – while also understanding that the Eagles say they’ll be giving Matthews more outside responsibilities this year. Add it all up and Huff has gone from a breakout candidate to a player from Oregon that Chip Kelly likes but doesn’t have much use for. We’ve seen time and again that no matter how badly Cooper struggles as a receiver, Chip keeps him on the field (presumably for his blocking and jump-ball ability).
8. Tre Mason, RB, Rams
I was a bit hesitant to put Tre Mason on this list because Todd Gurley sustained an ACL tear in November. The Rams will take the long-view with the No. 10 overall pick. “We’re not gonna rush it,” coach Jeff Fisher said. “We may well be a little on the conservative side. … It makes no sense to subject him to or put him in a bad situation sooner than we have to.” Still, the pick shows a lack of faith in Mason, who was going to lose pass-down work to Benny Cunningham anyway. And assuming Gurley’s rehab continues on the right track, he should be back by the season’s second month.
HONORABLE MENTION
9. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins – Yes, Jay Ajayi was only a fifth-round pick. But if he’s healthy (a big if), the Dolphins will reduce Miller’s workload. They’ve shown repeatedly they don’t like giving him heavy volume.
10. Denard Robinson, RB, Jaguars – The NCAA quarterback to NFL feature running back story was nice. T.J. Yeldon closes the book.
11. Branden Oliver, RB, Chargers – We knew the Chargers would add a running back in the draft. We didn’t know they would trade up in the first round get one though.
12. Marquess Wilson, WR, Bears – The selection of Kevin White at No. 7 overall squashes any thoughts of a Wilson leap.
13. Crockett Gillmore, TE, Ravens – Maxx Williams will play the pass-catching role while Gillmore stays in-line.
BREAKING NEWS: NFL coaches and general managers often lie. There’s little incentive for them to be forthcoming about player evaluations and roles, especially in the offseason when competition is their uniform mantra.
So as we look for clues, it’s more important to take note of what teams do rather than what they say. The actions in the draft spoke louder than words. Your veteran losers, from a fantasy perspective, are below. For the winners, bang it here:
1. Joique Bell, RB, Lions
The Lions have been trying to fix their running game for the entire six-year Matthew Stafford era. Joique Bell is a solid, versatile and reliable. He’s also averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in each of the last two seasons and will turn 29 in August. The Lions didn’t take Ameer Abdullah at No. 54 overall to have him ride the pine this year and if it’s a fair fight in training camp, Bell’s volume is going to be in some real trouble. Abdullah is a total freak in terms of athleticism as proven by his SPARQ score (95.6 percentile).
2. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
During the free agency period, the Saints traded away Jimmy Graham (for a center) and Kenny Stills (for a linebacker). During the draft, they selected no wideouts or tight ends, instead using 6-of-9 picks on defense. The shift in philosophy going on here is real as Drew Brees enters his age-36 season. The Saints want to have to score fewer points to win games, meaning a reliance on the defense and a running game led by Mark Ingram. And when Brees does go to throw, he’ll find underwhelming weaponry. I like Josh Hill, but he’s a massive, massive downgrade from Graham. Marques Colston is on his last legs and the No. 3 wideout battle is between the likes of Nick Toon, Joe Morgan, Seantavius Jones and Brandon Coleman. Brees’ annually league-high pass attempts are a lock to take a big hit and his effectiveness is in doubt to as he enters his decline phase with weakened playmakers.
3. Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans
The Titans made Bishop Sankey the first running back off the board in 2014. Then they complained about his footwork and watched him struggle badly to the tune of 3.74 YPC and 18 catches in 16 games. The pre-draft evaluations of Sankey by many said he was a space back a la Gio Bernard and one that lacked tackle-breaking skills/burst. That rang true in Year 1 and the Titans now appear ready to head in more of a power direction. An offensive line of LT Taylor Lewan, LG Andy Levitre, C Brian Schwenke, RG Chance Warmack and RT Jeremiah Poutasi is certainly capable. All this brings us to fifth-round David Cobb, a 5’11/229 keg of a runner who will knock Shonn Greene off the roster. Note that the Titans also used a fourth-round pick on Alabama fullback Jalston Fowler. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Cobb ends the season with more carries than Sankey.
4. Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills, WR, Dolphins
Jarvis Landry was one of biggest surprises in last year’s rookie class, excelling as an underneath slot receiver to the tune of 84-758-5. The targets (9.0 per game over last eight weeks) came as a result of Mike Wallace’s inability to connect with Ryan Tannehill, Charles Clay’s nagging knee woes and Brian Hartline’s general mehness.
The competition for volume this year is going to be much, much greater. The Dolphins traded for efficient Kenny Stills, signed Greg Jennings to a deal that included a $3M signing bonus and added Jordan Cameron in free agency. The cherry on top came when they used the No. 14 overall pick on DeVante Parker. So even though Landry’s is safe as the slot man, a player with such a low Average Depth of Target (hat tip Mike Clay) needs a massive amount of looks in half- or non-PPR formats. Don’t expect anything near those nine targets a day.
5. Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts
Long term, Donte Moncrief’s outlook remains intact. Andre Johnson will turn 34 in July and T.Y. Hilton is entering a contract year. But for 2015, Moncrief is buried again. The first pile of dirt came when Johnson signed and the death blow hit when GM Ryan Grigson shockingly used the No. 29 overall pick on Phillip Dorsett. Moncrief is even going to have to fight for situational deep threat duties this year, one season after being underutilized to the tune of 28.7 snaps per game.
6. Terrance West, RB, Browns
With the their third-round pick, the Browns could have filled needs at wide receiver (Sammie Coates), quarterback (Bryce Petty), corner (P.J. Williams) or a multitude of other positions. Instead, they added to an area of strength by selecting RB Duke Johnson. The Miami product is an elite pass-catching back, and was immediately compared to Gio Bernard and Brian Westbrook by GM Ray Farmer. That’s bad news for Terrance West, as Isaiah Crowell is the best early down and inside runner here.
7. Josh Huff, WR, Eagles
Jordan Matthews is locked into the slot and first-rounder Nelson Agholor is going to play the Jeremy Maclin role. Zach Ertz is going to have his volume increased as the “move” tight end. That leaves Josh Huff with a very narrow path to playing time and targets, as he’ll have to beat out Riley Cooper for an outside role – while also understanding that the Eagles say they’ll be giving Matthews more outside responsibilities this year. Add it all up and Huff has gone from a breakout candidate to a player from Oregon that Chip Kelly likes but doesn’t have much use for. We’ve seen time and again that no matter how badly Cooper struggles as a receiver, Chip keeps him on the field (presumably for his blocking and jump-ball ability).
8. Tre Mason, RB, Rams
I was a bit hesitant to put Tre Mason on this list because Todd Gurley sustained an ACL tear in November. The Rams will take the long-view with the No. 10 overall pick. “We’re not gonna rush it,” coach Jeff Fisher said. “We may well be a little on the conservative side. … It makes no sense to subject him to or put him in a bad situation sooner than we have to.” Still, the pick shows a lack of faith in Mason, who was going to lose pass-down work to Benny Cunningham anyway. And assuming Gurley’s rehab continues on the right track, he should be back by the season’s second month.
HONORABLE MENTION
9. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins – Yes, Jay Ajayi was only a fifth-round pick. But if he’s healthy (a big if), the Dolphins will reduce Miller’s workload. They’ve shown repeatedly they don’t like giving him heavy volume.
10. Denard Robinson, RB, Jaguars – The NCAA quarterback to NFL feature running back story was nice. T.J. Yeldon closes the book.
11. Branden Oliver, RB, Chargers – We knew the Chargers would add a running back in the draft. We didn’t know they would trade up in the first round get one though.
12. Marquess Wilson, WR, Bears – The selection of Kevin White at No. 7 overall squashes any thoughts of a Wilson leap.
13. Crockett Gillmore, TE, Ravens – Maxx Williams will play the pass-catching role while Gillmore stays in-line.
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