Bryce Harper a bust? Not even close
No matter what he does, Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper can’t seem to avoid the limelight. It’s been that way since a 16-year-old Harper graced the cover of Sports Illustrated.
The expectations only increased after he was the first overall pick in the 2010 MLB draft, and followed him as he tore through the minor leagues. By the time Harper was promoted to the majors, many projected him to be the savior in Washington.
That’s a lot of pressure to put on a 19-year-old. Despite those weighty projections, Harper hasn’t folded. Three years later, it’s starting to look like he’s blossoming into one of the best players in the game.
For some, that’s not enough. Due to the massive expectations surrounding Harper, his game gets picked apart constantly. Some fans believe he doesn’t respect the game, or are quick to point out his career .272 batting average as a negative.
Any time you talk about Bryce Harper, someone finds a way to work the word “bust” into the conversation. Hell, even his peers voted him the “most overrated player” this offseason. Those people couldn’t be further from the truth.
If pitchers still think he’s overrated, they haven’t shown it this year. If anything, they almost seem afraid to throw him a strike.
Through 29 games, Harper leads all of baseball with 26 walks. He’s been intentionally walked five times, which ties him with Miguel Cabrera, Matt Holliday and Jose Altuve. That’s pretty good company.
A fair amount of those free passes have come because Harper has effectively worked the count, and shown great plate discipline. He’s grown as a hitter, and deserves a lot of credit for that.
At the same time, pitchers are so afraid of Harper that they don’t want to give him anything to hit. Harper’s Zone%, a stat that measures how many pitches a player sees in the strike zone, is among the lowest in the league.
Pitchers have thrown Harper a strike about 38 percent of the time. That is the fifth lowest rate in all of baseball. He’s simply not getting anything to hit.
If Harper can continue taking free passes at this clip, his 20.8 walk rate would be the highest since Barry Bonds walked in an astounding 37.6 percent of his plate appearances in 2004. Harper is unlikely to continue this pace, but it still speaks to how pitchers have treated him thus far.
Some of that is likely due to the Nationals’ sluggish start on offense. Teams would rather face a struggling Ryan Zimmerman or Jayson Werth over Harper right now. Once those players start performing up to their usual level, Harper may see an increase in strikes.
That shouldn’t diminish what we’ve already seen, though. Pitchers don’t want to face Harper. They are already treating him as if he’s one of the best hitters in the game.
They aren’t wrong. Since 1871, Harper has the 42nd highest fWAR among players who have completed their age-22 seasons. Harper is just a month and a half into his age-22 season, so his 10.9 career fWAR is going to rise, meaning he’s going to rank higher on the list once the season ends.
If Harper can stay healthy, and return to being a 4-win player, he would easily break the top-30 by the end of the year. Bryce Harper is on pace to be one of the best 30 players since the advent of the sport, and some people still think he’s overrated.
That’s the burden of having enormous expectations. Harper’s been in the public eye since he was 16. He’s been branded “the chosen one,” a savior and the next best thing even before he was playing professionally.
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For the most part, he’s been able to live up to those labels. At his current level of production, pitchers already don’t want to face him. Considering he’s still just 22, there’s reason to think Harper can still improve.
Harper has already put himself in elite company considering his age. If his current level of performance can continue, the critics are going to have to come up with a new way to put him down.
Given Harper’s polarizing nature, that shouldn’t be hard to accomplish. Whatever new criticism people invent won’t matter. Harper seems to thrive on proving people wrong.
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Chris Cwik is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik
