NFL Draft Musings: College systems contribute to lack of NFL QB prospects – CBSSports.com
Where are all the quarterbacks?
“The college game is killing us,” one NFL general manger said. “Not just the quarterbacks, but it makes it tough to evaluate all the positions. But it’s really true with the quarterbacks.”
There were only seven quarterbacks picked in this year’s draft, the fewest since 1955. Teams scrambled to sign some as undrafted free agents after the draft — hey, you need camp arms — but the reality is there is a shortage of passers capable of playing the NFL game.
And the NFL game, despite what many hope, isn’t changing.
Why? You can’t pay a guy millions and then ask him to expose himself like they do with the quarterbacks in college.
It would be fiscal suicide if that guy gets hurt — career-threatening hurt. In college, Bobby replaces Billy and life goes on. Sis-boom-bah. In the NFL, season over.
The game is meant to be played in the pocket, but the problem is that it’s harder and harder to find those guys. Even Marcus Mariota, who went second to the Tennessee Titans, is a projection because of the system he played in at Oregon. It is far from prototypical, making his evaluation that much tougher, which is why I think Tampa Bay went with Florida State’s Jameis Winston at No. 1. He is a pocket passer.
The Titans are banking on Marcus Mariota adjusting quickly to the NFL game. (USATSI)
A quick look to the 2016 NFL Draft shows four potential “pocket” passers who could go in the first round — Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg, Michigan State’s Connor Cook, Cal’s Jared Goff and Cardale Jones of Ohio State, who has a total of three starts on his résumé and opened last season as the Buckeyes’ third-team passer.
There are a handful of other pocket passers who have a chance to make it, guys like Gunnar Kiel at Cincinnati, but we are seeing more and more spread quarterbacks who are just as dangerous with their legs as their arms. The problem is that you don’t get faster as you get older and it’s not sustainable to run around in the NFL. Eventually, you have to get into the pocket and make the reads to make the plays.
It happens to all of the guys who flash early as mobile quarterbacks. Ask Steve Young. He says it all the time.
Getting a franchise passer means you will have long-term success. That’s why the Colts are so glad to have Andrew Luck. He is the prototype. The Redskins thought they had their sustainable-success quarterback when Robert Griffin III did some impressive things as a rookie. But when it came time to grow in the pocket after a major knee injury, he couldn’t do it without the help of the ability to move.
The training wheels came off, and the bike fell.
After the draft, Cleveland Browns coach Mike Pettine said his team wasn’t going to “over-prioritize the quarterback position.” That’s spoken like a man who doesn’t have one in large part because of the shortage.
Those run-around quarterbacks, who the supposed experts predict will revolutionize the game, can do some exciting things, but they flash and then eventually they have a choice to make:
- Grow up as a pocket passer and go through the progressions and reads
- Get ready for a career that doesn’t quite have the longevity you want in that position.
Who knows, maybe the NFL will get to a point where teams keep three or four of the run-around quarterbacks on the roster and just deal with the consequences of running an offense to suit them.
Then it would be Billy replacing Bobby in the NFL, just like in college, with not much drop in offensive production. I can’t see that happening, but you never know.
Of course, the teams that have the franchise passers wouldn’t have to worry about that.
It’s just that it’s so damned hard to find them, as this past weekend’s draft once again reminded us.
AP’s agent needs to simmer down: The agent for Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, Ben Dogra, needs to quiet down. Every time he talks, every time he brings up Peterson — his star client now that J.J. Watt has fired him — something stupid seems to come out.
Some will say Dogra is just doing the agent thing, trying to do what’s best for his client. I think he has gone way past that, making Peterson’s situation into a constant news cycle.
Peterson should be thanking the Vikings, not having his agent cry about them at every turn. After what transpired last year, with Peterson’s November indefinite suspension coming after he pleaded no contest to misdemeanor reckless assault after allegations he hit his 4-year-old son with a switch. That suspension was overturned in US District Court, which started Dogra on his campaign to get his client out of Minnesota.
With the Vikings holding all the leverage, Adrian Peterson’s agent isn’t doing him any favors. (Getty Images)
Peterson is the highest-paid running back in the NFL, scheduled to make $45 million in the next three years, and $12.5 million in 2015. Yet all we heard for months is how he wanted out of Minnesota, that he’s not happy with the Vikings, that a trade made sense.
Three things are working against Peterson: Age, contract and he missed almost the entire 2014 season. Peterson is 30, the dreaded number for a back, and he has a contract that will pay him a tidy sum for an aging back. Nobody — and that’s quite clear now — is willing to trade for him with that deal. It’s roster suicide, giving up picks and paying that contract.
As for sitting out, some will say that’s a good thing, less wear on the body. But is it? Does anybody really know for sure?
In my dealings with Peterson, I’ve always liked the guy. He was accommodating, accessible and likeable. But his agent really made it tough for anybody to take up his side.
At every turn it’s a constant game of Dogra playing the woe-is-Adrian card, trying to turn the media into an anti-Vikings faction. Dogra has been a powerful agent in the NFL, one that some in the media swarm to at any chance they can get. But his power seems to fading as he and CAA severed ties and he has been let go by Watt, who is staying with CAA.
The Vikings are a rising team. They are loaded with young talent and a young quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, as well as a fair and good coach in Mike Zimmer.
Peterson should want to play for the Vikings. What’s more, if they want him, he has to or he has to sit out. There are no other options. They have his rights, so it’s Minnesota or nowhere.
Yet at every chance, Dogra seemed to stir the pot to get him traded. Since that didn’t work, he’s now hinting at a new deal, even though Peterson’s contract is already inflated for a guy his age coming off a season mostly on the sideline. Once resigned to the idea that his client wasn’t getting traded, Dogra tried to play the amends game for his comments aimed at the Vikings. It’s too late for that.
My advice to Peterson: Tell your agent to put a sock in it. His constant flow of agent-speak is making you look bad.
More Musings
• LSU tackle La’el Collins and Nebraska outside linebacker-defensive end Randy Gregory should be cautionary tales for all those college players out there.
Collins went undrafted after a former girlfriend was found murdered last week. Collins was questioned about the crime Monday, although the police have said he isn’t a suspect. The uncertainty surrounding the case caused him to go undrafted. His only hope now is to sign a free-agent contract — for peanuts — if his name is cleared. He could have been a top-15 pick if this horrible crime didn’t surface.
As for Gregory, he also would have been a high draft pick if he didn’t have off-field issues, such as testing positive for marijuana at the combine. He went in the second round to the Cowboys and admitted to the media that he needs to get control of his issues. Both players lost a ton of money because of these situations. They should be a lesson to all college players who someday want to play in the NFL.
• What happens if second-year quarterback Zach Mettenberger stays on the Titans roster and outplays Mariota this summer? Will he start? The Titans already said Mariota will start from the first game, so it sounds like there will be no competition. That’s weird when you consider the Titans strongly leaned to keeping Mettenberger as their quarterback and picking a different player in the second spot of the first round.
Mettenberger has a big arm and fits coach Ken Whisenhunt’s offense better than Mariota, but the Titans really believe Mariota can develop into a big-time quarterback. Whisenhunt is one of the best working with young passers, so he knows what it takes to make it work. He helped Ben Roethlisberger with the Steelers early in his career.
• Does anybody really think Eagles coach Chip Kelly didn’t try to trade up to get Mariota? He denied it of course, but that’s to save face with Sam Bradford, the quarterback he has to play with now. But make no mistake about it: Kelly tried to get up to get Mariota, which I think was the right move. It just got too expensive, and not making the move when that happened was also the right move.
• Kelly also said that Tim Tebow isn’t in Philadelphia to be a camp arm. Yeah, sure.
Jay Cutler is the man for the Bears, and could be in for a big rebound season in 2015. (Getty Images)
• There was talk of the Bears trading Jay Cutler or moving up to land a quarterback, but Cutler is their guy. Despite what many might think, that’s a good thing. He seemed to be a much looser guy last week when he met the media and he’s working with a new offense and a new coordinator in Adam Gase. The two have a history — and that matters.
You never know how it’s going to go, especially with a new GM, new coaches, a whole different philosophy maybe, a whole different way that they want players to play. You never know what’s going to happen.
In this Mike Martz offense, which Cutler has had success with in the past, I look for Cutler to play much better than he did a year ago. By the way, he threw 28 touchdown passes last season. The addition of first-round receiver Kevin White to a pass-catching group that already had Alshon Jeffery will really help Cutler. Not having Brandon Marshall will as well. Marshall can wear on a quarterback.
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
